經濟反彈提升中國銀行業業績

A rebound in economic growth has allowed Chinese banks to outrun the approaching shadow of bad loans and given them more time to strengthen their balance sheets.
在經濟增長反彈的影響下，中國各銀行正走出不良貸款的陰影，並獲得了加強資產負債表的更多時間。

When China’s banks announce their 2012 results this week, they are expected to report another year of large profits and negligible non-performing loans. State media estimates that profits for the country’s five biggest banks rose 12 per cent last year and that their bad-loan ratio was steady at 0.99 per cent.
本週，中國的銀行將陸續公佈2012年財報。根據預計，這將再次成爲利潤可觀、而不良貸款可忽略不計的一年。中國官方媒體估計，該國五大銀行的利潤去年上升12%，不良貸款比例則保持在0.99%。

China Construction Bank reported its results yesterday; the first of the country’s “big four” banks to report its results. Its net profit rose 14 per cent to Rmb193.2bn ($31.1bn) in 2012, from Rmb169.3bn a year earlier. Analysts had expected Rmb192.7bn.
在中國四大銀行中，中國建設銀行昨天率先公佈財報。其淨利潤從2011年的1693億元人民幣上升至2012年的1932億元（311億美元），增幅14%。分析師曾預計建行2012年利潤爲人民幣1927億元。

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China will follow over the next three days.
中國工商銀行、中國農業銀行和中國銀行將在未來三天陸續公佈財報。

The expected healthy figures contrast with pervasive fears since China’s stimulus spending spree in 2009 that the banks would soon face a mountain of debt.
自中國2009年推出鉅額刺激計劃以來，人們普遍擔憂銀行將很快面臨鉅額債務。這與預期的健康財務數據形成了鮮明對比。

Those concerns finally lifted towards the end of 2012, when China’s growth picked up after a two-year slowdown, fuelling a 30 per cent rally in the share prices of Chinese banks in Hong Kong. Li Lihui, president of Bank of China, the country’s third-biggest lender by assets, told the Financial Times this month that his bank had been especially strict last year in lending to high-risk borrowers, which the regulators have classified as including property developers and local government financing vehicles.
這些擔憂終於在接近2012年底的時候煙消雲散——中國經濟增長在連續兩年放緩後出現反彈，推動中國各銀行在香港上市的股票價格上升30%。中國銀行（中國資產規模第三大的銀行）行長李禮輝本月對英國《金融時報》表示，中行去年特別收緊了對高風險借款者的貸款。監管機構將房地產開發商和地方政府融資工具劃爲高風險借款者。

An important part of the improved outlook for the banks has been the regulators’ willingness to allow them to roll over many of the loans to local governments that had come due in recent years and could not be immediately paid off.
中國各銀行前景改善的一個重要原因是，監管機構願意允許它們展延很多最近幾年到期、且無法馬上償還的地方政府貸款。

Some of these loans have been restructured with new collateral transferred to banks, while others have been refinanced through bond issues.
其中一些貸款通過向銀行提供新的抵押品進行了重組，還有一些通過發債進行了再融資。

The absolute volume of non-performing loans is likely to have increased about 15 per cent last year.
不良貸款絕對數額去年可能增長約15%。

But with banks’ overall loan books also increasing by 15 per cent, their bad debt ratios will have remained constant, said Jim Antos, a banking analyst with Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong.
但瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)駐香港銀行業分析師吉姆??安託斯(Jim Antos)表示，由於貸款總額也增長了15%，因此中國各銀行的壞賬比率將保持不變。