經合組織預測 全球經濟前景惡化

Fears of disruption following a Scottish vote for independence and conflicts in the Middle East and UKraine have damaged prospects for the world economy, the OECD said yesterday.

經合組織(OECD)昨日表示，對蘇格蘭獨立公投以及中東和烏克蘭衝突的擔憂損害了世界經濟前景。

The outlook had darkened for 2014 and 2015 for almost all the world’s large economies, partly as the result of one-off hits to growth early this year and partly stemming from geopolitical risks, the OECD said in an update to economic forecasts published in May

經合組織在一份報告中表示，全球幾乎所有大型經濟體在2014年和2015年的經濟前景都有所惡化，部分原因是今年初的一次性情況打擊增長，還有部分原因是地緣政治風險。該報告是經合組織對今年5月發表的經濟預測的更新。

This marks the first time an international body has warned of the wider consequences to the global economy of a Scottish Yes vote.

這標誌着一家國際機構首次警告蘇格蘭獨立公投對全球經濟造成的整體後果。

The Paris-based organisation, which oversees the advanced economies, revised down its forecasts for 2014 growth for all large economies except India.

這家總部位於巴黎、監測發達經濟體的機構下調了除印度以外的所有大型經濟體在2014年的增長預期。

It expects growth of 2.1 per cent in the US, 0.8 per cent in the eurozone and 0.9 per cent for Japan, representing downward revisions in each economy of between 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points.

它預計美國增長2.1%，歐元區增長0.8%，日本增長0.9%，這代表着將每個經濟體的增長預期下調了0.3到0.5個百分點。

China’s forecast is constant at 7.4 per cent growth, with the UK the fastest growing advanced economy at 3.1 per cent. Brazil is bottom of the league, with only 0.3 per cent growth expected this year, much lower than the 1.8 per cent expected in May.

經合組織對中國的經濟增長預期不變，仍爲7.4%，同時預計英國增長3.1%，是發達經濟體中增長最快的。巴西是增長最低的，預計今年僅增長0.3%，遠低於今年5月預期的1.8%。

For 2015, the OECD still hopes that growth rates will pick up, although it has again trimmed most of its forecasts.

就2015年而言，經合組織仍預計增長將會加速，儘管它同樣下調了預期。

The organisation repeated sharp criticism of eurozone leaders. Calling the region’s economic performance “disappointing”, it warned “confidence is again weakening, and the anaemic state of demand is reflected in the decline in inflation, which is near zero in the zone as a whole and negative in several countries”.

經合組織再次嚴厲批評了歐元區領導人。它認爲歐元區的經濟表現“令人失望”，並警告稱，“信心再次變弱，通脹下降體現出需求疲弱。整個歐元區的通脹水平接近於零，在多個成員國甚至爲負值”。