IMF將中國GDP增幅預測上調至6.7%

China must speed up economic reforms while it still has a buffer of stable growth, the International Monetary Fund warned in its annual review of the world’s second-largest economy.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在對世界第二大經濟體的年度審議中警告，中國必須趁其仍有穩定增長作爲緩衝之際，加快經濟改革。

“Reform progress needs to accelerate to secure medium-term stability”, and to lower the risk of a “sharp adjustment”, the IMF said in its Article IV report on Wednesday.

IMF週三在其結束對中國的2017年第四條磋商訪問時表示：“改革需要取得更快進展，以確保中期穩定，並應對當前經濟發展軌跡可能最終導致急劇調整的風險。”

However, the IMF acknowledged that “some near-term risks had receded” as a result of continuing tightening in the financial and housing markets.

然而，由於金融和房地產市場持續收緊，IMF承認“一些近期風險已經消退”。

The IMF forecast China’s gross domestic product to grow 6.7 per cent this year — edging up from a previous estimate of 6.6 per cent — falling to 6.4 per cent between 2018-20, in line with government forecasts.

IMF預測，今年中國國內生產總值(GDP)將增長6.7%（略微高於先前預測的6.6%），之後在2018-20年期間平均每年增長6.4%，與政府預測相符。

However, the IMF warned that steady growth required “deep reforms to transition from the current growth model that relies on credit-fed investment and debt”, according to David Lipton, IMF first deputy managing director.

不過，據IMF第一副總裁大衛·利普頓(David Lipton)表示，IMF警告，穩定的增長要求“開展深入的改革，改變當前依賴由信貸主導的投資和債務的增長模式”。

China’s growth has been largely driven by investment, but this has started to slow because of declines in infrastructure and property investment. Official figures released on Wednesday show that annual growth in infrastructure fixed-asset investment dropped 4.3 percentage points in May, while property investment growth dropped 2.3 percentage points — meaning that growth in overall fixed-asset investment slowed in May to 7.8 per cent year on year.

中國的經濟增長在很大程度上受到投資的推動，但由於基礎設施和房地產投資下滑，投資增長已開始放緩。週三發佈的官方數據顯示，5月份基礎設施固定資產投資同比增幅下降4.3個百分點，而房地產投資增幅下降2.3個百分點，這意味着5月份固定資產投資總體增長放緩至7.8%。

Beijing has made containing financial risk a priority this year, fearing bubbles in its financial and housing markets. Regulators have clamped down on speculative activity and have reined in institutions from insurance companies to property developers.

北京方面今年將遏制金融風險列爲工作重點，擔心國內金融和住房市場的泡沫。監管機構開始打擊投機活動，約束從保險公司到房地產開發商等各類機構。

“No one knows for sure how long China has to reform. But China needs to do so otherwise the rate of return [on capital] is going to keep dropping,” said Larry Hu, of Macquarie Capital.

“沒有人知道中國還有多少時間可推行改革。但中國需要改革，否則資本回報率將繼續下滑，”麥格理資本(Macquarie Capital)的胡偉俊(Larry Hu)表示。

Local governments have launched a slew of measures to restrain housing demand in major cities, prompting prices to stall or drop and sales to plummet. Property developers have had their funding channels squeezed.

中國的地方政府出臺了一系列措施來抑制主要城市的住房需求，導致房價停滯或下降，銷售大幅下滑。房地產開發商的資金渠道受到擠壓。

“The recent measures in the financial and property markets don’t count as reforms, but as tightening,” added Mr Hu. “They will for sure lower short-term risks, but the long-term risks are still there.”

“金融和房地產市場近期的措施並不算是改革，而是收緊政策，”胡偉俊補充說。“他們肯定會降低短期風險，但長期風險仍然存在。”

In its continuing crackdown against corruption and risky investment, the government has been unafraid to target high-profile financiers such as the chairman of the insurance company Anbang, who was recently taken into detention. Some of the country’s largest insurance companies have had their issuance of risky products suspended. The new banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” against the country’s vast shadow banking industry.

在打擊腐敗和高風險投資的持續鬥爭中，近來中國政府敢於針對知名金融家，比如最近被當局帶走的安邦保險(Anbang)董事長。中國一些大保險公司發行的高風險產品已被叫停。銀行業監管機構的新負責人對國內龐大的影子銀行業發起了“監管風暴”。

The credibility of China’s economic data also needs to be improved to meet the country’s international commitments, the IMF said. Economists worldwide have long criticised China’s official economic statistics for being manipulated and thus giving little guidance for foreign stakeholders.

IMF表示，中國經濟數據的可信度也需要得到改善，以跟上中國的國際承諾。世界各地的經濟學家長期批評中國的官方經濟統計數據受到操縱，因而對境外利益相關者幾乎毫無指引意義。

In particular, China’s official growth and employment figures are suspiciously stable, showing barely any sign of the volatility that has affected the country’s economy.

特別是，中國的官方增長和就業數據穩定得可疑，從中幾乎看不到影響中國經濟的任何波動跡象。

After the province of Liaoning in the country’s north-eastern rust belt admitted it had falsified fiscal data, the central government has accused two more provinces in northern and north-eastern China of faking their economic data earlier this week.

在中國東北“鏽帶”遼寧省承認財政數據造假後，中央政府本週早些時候指責內蒙古和吉林這兩個省份經濟數據造假。