中國將是主要經濟體中今年唯一正增長國家

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday turned slightly more positive on the global economy for this year, but warned of a "long, uneven and uncertain" recovery.

國際貨幣基金組織10月13日發佈報告，對今年全球經濟的預期略有上調，但警告稱，全球經濟復甦將是“漫長、坎坷而不確定的”。

The global economy is now projected to contract by 4.4% in 2020 — an upward revision from an estimate of -4.9% made in June (which has now also been revised to -5.2% due to a new methodology used by the IMF). The IMF's forecast assumes that social distancing due to the coronavirus pandemic will continue into 2021, and that local transmission will fall everywhere by the end of 2022.

根據國際貨幣基金組織的預測，全球經濟在2020年將萎縮4.4%，高於6月份下降4.9%的預測（由於國際貨幣基金組織採用新方法，該數據被修正爲下降5.2%)。國際貨幣基金組織的預測認爲，新冠疫情造成的社交隔離措施將持續到2021年，到2022年年底，全球各地的社區傳播都將減少。

Among major economies, only China is expected to expand in 2020. The IMF believes the country, which battled Covid-19 earlier than the rest of the world and was quickly able to move out of lockdown due to strict containment measures, will grow by 1.9%.

在主要經濟體中，只有中國有望在2020年實現經濟增長。國際貨幣基金組織預計今年中國經濟增長將達到1.9%。中國比世界其他國家更早抗擊新冠肺炎疫情，由於採取了嚴格的管控措施，迅速走出了封鎖狀態。

"We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast," the IMF's chief economist, Gita Gopinath, said in the latest World Economic Outlook.

國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家吉塔·戈皮納斯在最新的《世界經濟展望》中表示：“與我們6月份的預測相比，我們預計2020年的經濟衰退仍很嚴重，但比此前的預計略輕微。”

She added that the revision was driven by better-than-expected growth in advanced economies and China during the second quarter of the year and signs of a more rapid recovery in the third quarter.

她補充稱，此次上調今年世界經濟增長率的主要原因是第二季度發達經濟體和中國的經濟數據好於預期，且有跡象顯示第三季度的復甦更爲強勁。

However, the outlook warned that the coronavirus crisis is far from over.

不過，報告警告稱，新冠危機遠未結束。

The IMF projected "only limited progress" going forward and cut its gross domestic product growth expectations for next year to 5.2%, from an estimate of 5.4% made in June.

國際貨幣基金組織預計，未來解決新冠危機的“進展有限”，並將明年國內生產總值增長預期從6月份估計的5.4%下調至5.2%。

"While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain," Gopinath said, while adding that "prospects have worsened significantly in some emerging market and developing economies."

戈皮納斯說：“儘管全球經濟正在復甦，但這可能是漫長的、不均衡的和不確定的。”她補充稱，“一些新興市場和發展中經濟體的前景已明顯惡化”。

Emerging market and developing economies are seen contracting by 3.3% this year, but in places like India, GDP is seen falling by more than 10%.

新興市場和發展中經濟體的經濟今年預計將下降3.3%，但印度等地的國內生產總值降幅將超過10%。

Meanwhile, the United States economy is set to fall by 4.3% this year, but the economic contractions in the UK, France, Italy and Spain are around 10%.

與此同時，美國經濟今年將下降4.3%，而英國、法國、意大利和西班牙的經濟將下降大約10%。

Looking ahead, the IMF offered a bleak look at how the global economy might perform over the medium term, its first such forecast since the outbreak began.

展望未來，國際貨幣基金組織對全球經濟的中期表現做出了悲觀的預測，這是自疫情暴發以來該組織首次做出此類預測。

Global growth is expected to slow to roughly 3.5% between 2022 and 2025, leaving the output of most economies below levels that were predicted before the pandemic.

預計2022年至2025年，全球經濟增速將放緩至3.5%左右，使大多數經濟體的產出低於疫情暴發前的預期。

The IMF emphasized that uncertainty surrounding its projections is "unusually large" given the lack of clarity on the health crisis and the economic response, especially as global debt levels increase.

國際貨幣基金組織強調指出，鑑於衛生危機和經濟應對措施不夠清晰，特別是在全球債務水平上升的情況下，其預測的不確定性“非常大”。

The recovery "is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread," the IMF said in its latest economic analysis.

國際貨幣基金組織在其最新的經濟分析中表示，“在疫情繼續蔓延的情況下，復甦並不確定”。

The IMF has advised governments to keep some degree of accommodative policies to prevent a wider gap in income distribution, despite growing levels of public debt.

國際貨幣基金組織建議，儘管公共債務水平不斷上升，各國政府應保持一定程度的寬鬆政策，以防止收入分配差距擴大。

In addition, the IMF mentioned that geopolitical tensions, trade friction, natural disasters, changes to financing conditions and further outbreaks remain downside risks to its projections.

此外，國際貨幣基金組織預計，經濟下行的風險還有地緣政治緊張局勢、貿易摩擦、自然災害、融資條件變化和疫情進一步暴發。