IMF六年來首次上調全球增長預測

The world economy will grow faster than previously expected this year thanks to increased trade, investment and manufacturing, the International Monetary Fund has said.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)表示，由於貿易、投資和製造業活動增加，今年世界經濟的增速將快於此前預期。

But it warned that the threat of protectionist policies and structural problems — such as low productivity and high income inequality — meant “the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside”.

但該組織警告稱，保護主義政策和結構性問題（比如生產率低下和收入不平等程度偏高）的威脅意味着，“風險的平衡仍然偏向下行”。

In the World Economic Outlook, its regular assessment of global growth prospects, the IMF increased its growth forecast for this year from 3.4 per cent to 3.5 per cent, marking the first time in six years it has revised up previous expectations for short-term global growth.

在其對全球增長前景的定期評估《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)中，IMF把今年的增長預測從3.4%上調至3.5%。這是6年來該組織首次上調對全球經濟短期增長的預期。

That upward revision, issued ahead of its spring meetings in Washington, came primarily due to better than expected economic news from Europe, China and Japan, and a broad-based recovery in global manufacturing since the middle of 2016.

在IMF於華盛頓召開春季會議前夕上調預期，主要是由於歐洲、中國和日本都傳來好於預期的經濟消息，以及自2016年年中以來全球製造業廣泛復甦。

But “whether the current momentum will be sustained remains a question mark,” said Maurice Obstfeld, the fund’s chief economist. “The world economy still faces headwinds.”

但“目前的勢頭是否會持續仍然是個問題，”IMF首席經濟學家莫里斯?奧布斯特費爾德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，“世界經濟仍然面臨逆風。”

Among the biggest questions now looming over the global economy, he said, was the direction of policies in the US, where the IMF expects the economy to grow by 2.3 per cent this year.

他表示，如今籠罩着全球經濟的最大問題是美國的政策走向，IMF預計今年美國經濟將增長2.3%。

Donald Trump’s expansionary fiscal policies risk fuelling inflation and causing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates faster than expected. Such a move could spark a sharp appreciation in the dollar that could, in turn, hurt emerging economies.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)擴張性的財政政策可能會刺激通脹，導致美聯儲(Fed)加息步伐快於預期。此類舉動可能會引發美元大幅升值，進而可能衝擊新興經濟體。

The IMF, Mr Obstfeld said, also remains anxious about China’s growth and its dependence on “domestic credit growth so rapid that it may cause financial stability problems down the road” that could reverberate globally.

奧布斯特費爾德稱，IMF也仍然對中國的增長及其依賴“可能導致未來金融穩定問題的國內信貸快速增長”感到擔心。他表示，此類問題可能在全球引發震盪。