駐英國大使劉曉明在英國劍橋大學的演講
成功的道路，全面的發展
——駐英國大使劉曉明在英國劍橋大學的演講
英國劍橋大學嘉治商學院
2011年2月22日
The Road to Success and Comprehensive Development
--Speech by H.E. Ambassador Liu Xiaoming at the University of Cambridge
Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
22 February 2011
尊敬的劍橋大學校長博裏塞維奇爵士，
老師們，
同學們：
Vice Chancellor Sir Leszek Borysiewicz,
Faculty members,
Students,
很高興應博裏塞維奇校長的邀請訪問劍橋大學並作演講。
It is my great pleasure and privilege to visit Cambridge at the invitation of the Vice Chancellor and to speak at the Judge Business School.
這是我出使英國後第一次來到劍橋，但我對劍橋絲毫沒有陌生感。
This is my first visit to Cambridge as Chinese Ambassador to the UK. Yet Cambridge is no stranger to me.
雖然我到英國後先去了牛津，但我知道“牛津出首相、劍橋出諾貝爾獎”這句佳話，知道劍橋大學校友獲得了88個諾貝爾獎，相當於英國所獲諾獎的總和，在世界所有大學中保持最高紀錄。
I heard a saying: "If you want to meet prime ministers, go to Oxford; but for Nobel Prize winners, go to Cambridge". Cambridge alumni won 88 Nobel Prizes, as many as the prizes won by Britain as a country, ranking first in all the universities around the world.
我最早相識劍橋，是因爲徐志摩先生在這裏留下了《再別康橋》這樣的千古絕唱，也是因爲李約瑟博士在這裏寫就了鴻篇鉅著《中國科學技術史》。
I first got to know Cambridge from Chinese poet Xu Zhimo who wrote his best-known poem Farewell to Cambridge, and later from Dr Joseph Needham who wrote and edited the epic series Science and Civilisation in China.
我第一次走進“劍橋”，是29年前我在美國塔夫茨大學弗萊徹學院讀書的時候。當時弗萊徹學院由塔夫茨大學和哈佛大學共同管理，兩院校圖書館使用統一索引，我經常去位於“劍橋”的哈佛大學圖書館查閱資料。
My first visit to a place called Cambridge was 29 years ago when I was a student at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, which was then jointly administered by Tufts and Harvard. As Fletcher and Harvard shared the same library call number, I went to the Harvard Cambridge Library quite often.
今天，我走進“正宗”的劍橋，這既是一次工作性質的訪問，推動劍橋大學與中國的教育合作，也是一次個人的精神尋旅，品味劍橋800年的文化積澱。當然，我也願就大家關心的中國話題，與你們交流討論。
Today I have finally come to the real Cambridge, both on a personal journey to fulfil a long-cherished dream of seeing Cambridge and experiencing its 800-year heritage and on an official visit to discuss educational cooperation and to talk about China.
上週，根據中日兩國的最新GDP統計數字，中國正式超過日本成爲了世界第二大經濟體。世界上各大媒體都將此作爲熱點新聞進行報道。世界再次聚焦中國，圍繞中國問題的討論一直方興未艾，現在再次升溫。我總結了一下人們熱議的幾個問題：一是中國成爲世界第二說明了什麼？二是中國是否很快會成爲世界第一？三是中國能否持續高速發展？四是中國發展對世界意味什麼？今天，我想就這些問題談談我的看法。
Last week one of the headline news was that China has officially overtaken Japan as the world's second largest economy. This has put China in the limelight once again and stoked an ongoing discussion about China. Many questions were asked: What does China being the second largest economy tell us? How soon is China going to be number one? Will China be able to sustain such rapid growth? What does China's development mean to the world? The list can go on and on. But these are the most asked questions. Let me share my thoughts about these questions.
首先，中國成爲世界第二大經濟體說明什麼？我認爲，它說明了中國發展道路的成功。
First question: What does it tell us that China rolls in at number two? I think it tells the successful story of China's development.
中國爲什麼會取得如此成功？中國成功的經驗是什麼？中國成功靠走適合自己國情的道路。一個十三億人口的大國，一個有五千年文明歷史的古國，該走什麼樣的道路才能發展，教科書上沒有現成的答案，歷史上也沒有可以參考的先例。但中國人“摸着石頭過河”，牢牢把握自己的國情，不斷探索實踐，開拓創新，借鑑吸取世界各國有益經驗，實現了天翻地覆的變化。
The secret of China's success is simple and open. That is China has found a development model well suited to its national conditions. How should we go about developing a country with 1.3 billion people and a history of 5 thousand years? Neither textbooks nor history has given us the ready answer. As Mr Deng Xiaoping termed it, we managed to "cross the river by feeling for the stones". We explored our way forward in a pioneering spirit by combining the useful experiences of other countries with the unique circumstances of China.
中國成功靠“改革開放”。開放，不僅是經濟上的對外開放，從封閉半封閉到全方位、多層次、寬領域對外開放，更是思想頭腦的解放，社會的自由寬鬆，政府的公開透明。改革，不僅是改革經濟制度，將高度集中的計劃經濟體制改革爲充滿生機和活力的社會主義市場經濟體制，也是政治、社會、文化的全面改革和建設。
China's success also lies in its commitment to reform and opening-up. Opening-up means embracing the global economy at every level and in every area. But it is much more than that. It also means freeing your mind, fostering a more open and diverse society. It means nurturing a culture of open and transparent government. Reform is about transforming the planned economy to a vibrant socialist market economy. It is also about making comprehensive progress in political, social and cultural spheres.
西方有些人認爲，中國只搞經濟改革，不搞政治改革。這是對中國全面改革的一種誤解。事實上，30多年來，中國的經濟體制改革每推進一步，政治體制改革也深化一步。人民代表大會制度、中國共產黨領導的多黨合作和政治協商制度，在中國政治生活中的地位和作用越來越大。30多年來，中國民主法制建設不斷加強，堅持依法治國，幾千年形成的人治社會正在向法治社會轉變。30多年來，中國人權事業有了大發展，我們將尊重和保障人權寫入了憲法，依法保障全體社會成員平等參與、平等發展的權利，同時加強國際人權合作。
Some people in the West believe China has carried out reform only in economic sector, not in political system. This is a misunderstanding of China's comprehensive reform. During the past 3 decades, political reform has come with economic reform every step of the way, and political progress has been achieved hand in hand with economic growth. We have seen a growing role of the National People's Congress and multi-party political consultation under the leadership of the Communist Party. Democratic decision making and the legal system has been strengthened. The millennium-old pattern of "rule by man" is giving way to the rule of law. We have also seen significant progress in human rights. The promotion and protection of human rights has been written into the Chinese Constitution. All citizens enjoy the rights protected by law to equal participation and development. We have also strengthened international cooperation on human rights.
歷史上，中國並非沒有嘗試過西方式的民主，但都並未給中國帶來繁榮和富強。今天，我們找到了一條適合自己發展的道路，建立了有中國特色的民主制度，我們有什麼理由動搖？有什麼理由折騰？
It was not for lack of trying that Western-style democracy did not bring China the prosperity and strength it had wanted so badly in its modern history. Now that we have found our own road to success and Chinese style democracy, why should we waver or give it up?
第二個問題，中國是否已在坐二望一，很快超過美國？回答這個問題前，我們不妨看以下幾對關鍵詞：
Second question, how soon is China going to overtake the US? Before we answer this question, let's look at some key words:
一是“總量”和“人均”。儘管中國經濟總量成了世界第二，去年達到5.8萬億美元，但人均GDP只有4300美元，仍排在世界百位左右，離中等發達國家相距甚遠，僅佔英國的1/9，美國的1/10。
"Aggregates" and "per capita". China's economic aggregates stood at 5.8 trillion US dollars in 2010, ranking second in the world. But its per capita GDP was merely 4,300 US dollars, lower than about 100 other countries, only one ninth of the UK, and one tenth of the US.
二是“沿海”與“內地”及“城市”與“農村”。中國的沿海很發達，城市很繁榮，但是中國西部經濟仍很落後，而且中國的城鎮化率僅有46%，城鄉居民收入比高達3.23：1。我曾在中國最貧困的省份之一甘肅擔任兩年省長助理，對此深有感受。甘肅地處大西北，自然條件惡劣，沙漠化對當地人民的生存構成了嚴峻挑戰，經濟發展困難很大。許多農村的孩子們沒有電腦，更從來沒有上過互聯網。很多孩子在完成國家9年義務階段教育後，由於經濟原因不得不中止學業。"Coastal" and "inland", "urban" and "rural". We have in China both rich cities in the coastal regions and under developed poor regions in the west of the country. The urbanisation rate is only 46%, and the urban/rural income ratio is as high as 3.23 to 1. I served for two years as Assistant Governor in one of the poorest provinces in northwest China – Gansu. Gansu suffers from tough natural conditions. Desertification threatens the livelihood of the local people and economic development is a huge challenge. Many of the children in the countryside do not have access to computers or the internet. Many boys and girls have to drop out of school because their families cannot afford their continued education.
三是“製造”與“創造”。中國是製造業大國，但很多產品只有加工、封裝等勞動力密集型環節在中國完成，研發設計、關鍵部件和市場營銷都在國外，中國處在國際產業鏈的末端。中國出口商品中90%是貼牌生產，每部手機售價的20%、計算機售價的30%、數控機牀售價的20%到40%，都要支付給國外專利持有者。從“中國製造”到“中國創造”還有很長的路要走。
"Made in China" and "created in China". For all its manufacturing strength, China is still at the lower end of the value chain. In many cases only the labour-intensive parts of production such as processing and packaging are done in China. R&D, design, key components and marketing are done elsewhere. 90% of China's export commodities are OEM products. 20% of the retail value of every mobile phone, 30% that of computers and 20-40% that of Computer Numerical Control machine tools go to foreign patent owners. There is still a long way to go from "Made in China" to "created in China".
四是“粗放”與“集約”。有數據顯示，中國單位GDP的能耗是國際水平的三至四倍，是英國的八倍。中國消耗了全球46％的鋼鐵、16％的能源、52％的水泥，但僅創造了全球8％左右的GDP。中國經濟發展效率還有待大幅提升，需要從“粗放型”向“集約型”發展。
"Energy-intensive" and "energy-efficient". Statistics show that China's energy intensity is 3 to 4 times that of the international average and 8 times that of the UK. China consumes 46% of the world's iron and steel, 16% of energy, 52% of cement, and only produces 8% of the world's GDP. China still has a lot to do to raise the quality and efficiency of its economic growth.
因此，中國經濟總量雖然已居世界第二，但人均水平和GDP質量還遠沒有達到發達國家的水平。我們不是“謙虛”，也不是“虛僞”，更不是想逃避“責任”，而是中國仍然是一個不折不扣的發展中國家。集中精力搞建設，一心一意謀發展，是我們長期的優先任務。我們不追求“虛名”，要的是實實在在的國強和民富。
Although China is now number 2 economy in the world, we still lag far behind developed countries in per capita income and quality of GDP. China is still a developing country, not because we are modest or hypocritical, or we wish to escape from our responsibilities. Development will remain a top priority for China for a long time to come.
第三個問題，中國已經高速行進了30多年，今後還能持續快速發展嗎？
Third question: Can China sustain its fast growth after 3 decades?
回答是肯定的。中國還處在工業化中期階段和城鎮化加速上升階段，中國仍需要大量的基礎設施投資，需要在未來20年安置3億多人口從農村遷移到城市，需要滿足人民消費結構從溫飽向小康升級換代的需求，需要實現西部地區向東部地區的發展水平看齊，因此中國經濟並不缺乏動力，仍有很大的發展空間，我們有充分理由保持樂觀。
The answer is positve. China is still in the course of rapid industrialisation and urbanisation. This is a phase when massive infrastructure investment is needed. 300 million people are expected to move from the countryside to the cities in the next 20 years. The Chinese people need to upgrade their consumption pattern, and the western regions need to catch up with their eastern counterparts. So driving force is never lacking for the Chinese economy, and there is plenty of potential to be tapped. We have reasons to be optimistic about the future.
中國去年底制定了“十二五”規劃，即將在下月交由全國人民代表大會審議，這將是未來5年中國發展的重要藍圖。
The National People's Congress will review China's 12th Five-Year Plan at its annual session next month. This is an important blueprint for China's development in the next 5 years.
我們要對中國經濟結構進行戰略性調整。我們將努力擴大內需，促進經濟增長向依靠消費、投資、出口協調拉動轉變。我們將加強農業，提升製造業核心競爭力，發展戰略性新興產業，加快發展服務業，促進經濟增長向依靠第一、第二、第三產業協同帶動轉變。我們將統籌城鄉發展，促進區域良性互動、協調發展。
We will carry out strategic economic restructuring to expand domestic demand and promote balanced growth driven by consumption, investment and exports. We will strengthen agriculture, increase the competitiveness of manufacturing, and give priority to emerging industries and the services sector. The aim is to seek a balanced and coordinated development between urban and rural areas and between east and west.
我們要積極推進科技進步和創新，加快建設創新型國家。正如鄧小平先生曾經指出的，科技是第一生產力。中國今後的發展必須向主要依靠科技進步、勞動者素質提高、管理創新轉變。
We will promote scientific and technological progress and innovation. We will speed up efforts to turn China into an innovation-driven country. As Mr Deng Xiaoping pointed out, "There is no other productive force more important than science and technology". Our future development must rely on scientific and technological progress, a higher quality labour force and innovative management.
我們要更好地保障和改善民生。發展經濟，歸根結底是爲了人民的幸福。我們將完善保障和改善民生的制度安排，把促進就業放在優先位置，推進基本公共服務均等化，加大收入分配調節力度，使發展成果惠及全體人民。
We will continue to improve the lives of our people. Economic development is aimed at serving people's interests. We will improve social security, increase job creation, promote equal access to public services and balance income distribution. This will ensure that the benefits of development will be shared by all.
我們要建設資源節約型、環境友好型社會。中國人均GDP要向西方國家看齊，但人均能源消費絕不能趕超發達國家，因爲我們生活的地球實在承受不起。我們不能走西方國家工業化的老路。我們要節約能源，降低溫室氣體排放強度，發展循環經濟，推廣低碳技術，積極應對氣候變化，促進經濟社會發展與人口資源環境相協調，走可持續發展之路。
We will build an energy-efficient and environment-friendly society. We need to catch up with developed countries in terms of per capita GDP, but not per capita energy consumption, as this would be unsustainable for our planet. China cannot follow the traditional Western way of industrialisation. We must raise energy efficiency, reduce emission intensity, develop a circular economy, extensively apply low-carbon technologies and actively address climate change. We must promote sustainable development, achieving an appropriate balance between economic, social progress and population, resources and the environment.
第四個問題，中國發展了，對世界意味着什麼？是福還是禍？是機遇還是威脅？我們不妨看三點：
The fourth and last question: What does China's development mean to the world, a blessing or catastrophe, opportunities or threats? This question can be answered in 3 aspects:
一是中國給世界和平帶來威脅了嗎？中國奉行獨立自主的和平外交政策，莊嚴地向世界承諾永遠不稱霸，永遠不搞擴張；主張不干涉別國內部事務和談判解決國際爭端；倡導互信、互利、平等、協作的新安全觀。中國是聯合國安理會常任理事國中派出維和人員最多的國家，累計參與24項聯合國維和行動，派出上萬名維和人員；中國向索馬里海域派出護航艦隊，與多國艦隊一道打擊海盜，維護國際水域的安全；中國大力倡導朝核問題六方會談，努力維護半島和地區的和平穩定。無論從中國的外交思想，還是外交行動來看，中國都是世界和平的維護者、穩定的促進者。
Is China a threat to world peace? China follows an independent foreign policy of peace. We solemnly pledged to the world that hegemony or expansion is never an option for China; China stands for non-interference in others' internal affairs and negotiated solutions to international disputes. China believes that security should be based on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination. China is the largest contributor of peacekeepers amongst the UN Permanent 5, having sent 10 thousand peacekeepers on 24 UN missions. It has sent escort ships to the waters off the Somali coast and worked with the navies of other countries to combat piracy and improve safety in international waters. It has actively worked to facilitate the Six-Party Talks to uphold peace and the stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. China is in every way an upholder of peace and a facilitator of stability.
二是中國給世界經濟帶來威脅了嗎？金融危機以來，中國爲全球經濟增長提供了重要支撐。2010年發達國家經濟仍步履維艱，在全球有效需求不足的情況下，中國扮演着向全球輸出總需求的重要角色。歐盟去年對華出口增長31.9%，英國則增長42%。去年中國經濟繼續保持兩位數增長，對世界經濟增長貢獻率達到20%。今後10年，中國將繼續奉行互利共贏的開放戰略，市場對外開放程度將進一步提高，在國際貿易中的比重會不斷上升，從國際市場的進口仍會迅速增加。這些對世界各國來說，只會是巨大的發展機遇。
Is China a threat to the world economy? China has been a crucial support for global growth since the start of the financial crisis. It drove global demand at a time when developed countries were in economic difficulties. This was reflected in the 31.9% increase of EU exports and the 42% increase of UK exports to China last year. China maintained a double-digit growth last year, and contributed 20% of global economic growth. China will continue to pursue a strategy of win-win opening-up over the next decade. Its market will open wider, its share in international trade will increase, and its imports will rise. These will no doubt create enormous opportunities for countries around the world.
三是中國對現行國際體系構成威脅了嗎？中國作爲一個負責任的大國，是國際體系的參與者、建設者和貢獻者。我們與發達國家和新興經濟體就促進世界經濟金融治理廣泛開展合作，共同倡導加強G20機制；我們加強與發展中國家的傳統友誼，幫助經濟開發和實現減貧，過去兩年裏中國向其他發展中國家的貸款已經超過了世界銀行；我們支持、倡導並踐行多邊主義，推動國際關係民主化，積極參與區域合作進程，努力促進國際體系更加有效地應對氣候變化、能源和資源、糧食安全、恐怖主義等全球性挑戰。
Is China a threat to the international system? China has been participating in and contributing to the current international system as a responsible major player. It has entered into extensive cooperation with its partners in developed and emerging economies on the reform of global economic and financial governance, and jointly advocated a greater role of the G20. It has strengthened traditional friendships with other developing countries and helped them develop their economies and reduce poverty. The loans it has provided to other developing countries in the past two years have surpassed those of the World Bank. It supports and practices multilateralism, and stands for greater democracy in international relations. This can be seen by its active participation in regional cooperation, along with the support it gives to tackling global challenges such as climate change, energy, resources, food security and terrorism.
總之，中國的發展對世界是福不是禍，是機遇不是威脅。世界對中國不應感到擔憂，更不應感到恐懼。美國前總統弗蘭克林·羅斯福說的好：“我們唯一恐懼的就是恐懼本身。”
China's development is a blessing, not a catastrophe to the world. It means opportunities, not threats. It is not to be worried about, still less feared. As Franklin Roosevelt put it, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself".
老師們、同學們，
Faculty members and students,
800多年來，劍橋大學秉承“此地乃啓蒙之所和智慧之源”（拉丁語：Hinc lucem et pocula sacra）的校訓，努力探索世界，不斷追求真理。半個多世紀前，李約瑟博士以其睿智打開了中國古代科技的歷史寶庫，重拾了偉大的中華文明。今天，當你們放眼中國，你們會發現中國正在走一條前人沒有走過的道路，中國的實踐可能超出了以往人們的知識積累。面對今天的中國這一豐富的寶藏，我衷心地期望劍橋大學的學子們遵循你們的校訓，不斷探索，大力挖掘，成爲英國乃至世界範圍內研究當代中國的領軍者。
Over the past 8 centuries, the University of Cambridge has stayed true to its motto "From here, light and sacred draughts" (Hinc lucem et pocula sacra) in its tireless pursuit of the world's truth and knowledge. More than half a century ago, Dr Joseph Needham uncovered the treasures of China's ancient science and civilisation. Today when you look at China, you will realise that it is embarking on a journey no country has ever made. This goes beyond the knowledge of human beings and offers enormous opportunities. I therefore encourage you to follow Cambridge's motto to renew your efforts in tapping the rich resources China has to offer and lead the UK and the world in studying and understanding today's China.
謝謝。下面我願回答大家的提問。
Thank you and now I would like to take questions from you.
