特朗普當選的經濟影響
Donald Trump has won the presidency, despite losing the popular vote.
雖然沒有贏得直選票，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)還是贏得了總統寶座。
The US has, as a result, chosen as its next president a man whose inexperience, character, temperament and knowledge appear to make him unsuited for this high office.
其結果是，美國選擇了一個經驗、性格、脾氣和學識似乎都不適合這一高位的人爲下屆總統。
The consequences of a Trump presidency will be many and various.
特朗普當選總統將帶來多種多樣的後果。
But the economic ones will not be the least important.
但經濟上的影響將尤爲重要。
His administration might even reverse globalisation, destabilise the financial system, weaken US public finances and threaten trust in the dollar.
他的政府甚至可能逆轉全球化，動搖金融體系，削弱美國的公共財政，並危及全球對美元的信心。
US-led globalisation is already fragile.
美國領導的全球化早已四分五裂。
Mr Trump seems likely to push it into its coffin.
特朗普看起來將讓其壽終正寢。
After his victory, the Trans-Pacific Partnership looks dead.
特朗普獲勝後，《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)似乎已死。
That might leave an opening for a Beijing-led alternative: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
這或將給北京主導的區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)打開大門。
But TPP might be replaced by nothing.
但可能沒有任何協定來代替TPP。
The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership was moribund and is now dead.
之前垂死掙扎的跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴關係協定》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP)如今也已斷氣。
Mr Trump has also suggested repeal or renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
特朗普還建議廢除或者重新談判《北美自由貿易協定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)。
Above all, he has suggested imposition of high tariffs, especially on imports from China and Mexico, to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the US tax-free.
最重要的是，他建議徵收高關稅，特別是針對來自中國和墨西哥的進口商品，以阻止企業解僱本國員工，到國外建廠並免稅將產品運回美國。
They would almost certainly be contrary to World Trade Organisation rules. They would also create a risk of retaliation.
這些措施幾乎必然違背世貿組織(WTO)規則，還可能招致報復。
The costs to the US, world trade and the credibility of the trading system might prove very high.
它們對美國、世界貿易以及世貿體系的可信性造成的代價可能也會非常高。
A second area of concern is financial regulation.
第二個令人擔憂的領域是金融監管。
Mr Trump has supported repeal of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, the regulatory response to the financial crisis.
特朗普支持廢除2010年爲應對金融危機通過的《多德-弗蘭克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。
Many financial businesses hate it.
許多金融企業不喜歡這一監管法案。
Yet the question is whether it would be replaced by a more effective alternative or by a return to the pre-crisis free-for-all.
然而，問題在於，將有一項更有效的法律來取代它，還是要回到危機前的自由放任狀態。
If the latter, the chances of another, possibly bigger, crisis would surely be enhanced.
如果是後者，那麼未來再次發生（或許更大）危機的可能性必將上升。
Yet on financial regulation, unlike on trade, Mr Trump’s populism might protect the US from the worst deregulatory instincts of congressional Republicans rather than the reverse.
然而，不同於貿易，在金融監管方面，特朗普的民粹主義或許可以保護美國免遭國會共和黨人放松管制的最壞本能的危害，而不是相反。
Mr Trump also wants a big surge of spending on infrastructure and tax cuts.
特朗普還希望大幅增加基礎設施支出和大規模減稅。
The former would be desirable, particularly if the projects were sensible.
前者將是可取的，特別是如果這些項目合理的話。
Indeed, it would be deeply ironic if Mr Trump carried out, with Republican support in Congress, precisely the sort of Keynesian fiscal stimulus congressional Republicans adamantly opposed when reasonably suggested by the administration of Barack Obama in 2009.
實際上，如果特朗普在國會共和黨人的支持下實施這一政策將很具有諷刺意味，因爲正是這種凱恩斯式的財政刺激計劃，巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府2009年合理地提出時卻遭到了國會共和黨人的堅決反對。
Unfortunately, the timing would be far worse since the US economy of today is vastly closer to full employment than it was back then.
遺憾的是，時機已變得糟得多，因爲如今美國經濟遠比那時更接近充分就業。
The tax proposals would shower huge benefits on already rich Americans such as Mr Trump.
減稅提議將令已經很富有的美國人（如特朗普）享受巨大好處。
According to the Tax Policy Center, his latest plan would raise the after-tax income of those in the middle fifth of the income distribution by $1,010 or 1.8 per cent.
根據美國稅收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)的數據，特朗普的最新計劃將讓處於收入分佈中間五分之一的人口的稅後收入提高1010美元或1.8%。
But the top 0.1 of the population would enjoy an average tax cut of nearly $1.1m, or more than 14 per cent of after-tax income.
但收入最高的0.1%的人口平均將享受接近110萬美元的減稅，超過稅後收入的14%。
The cumulative increase in federal debt might be as much as 25 per cent of gross domestic product by 2026.
到2026年，聯邦債務累計增幅或將高達國內生產總值(GDP)的25%。
Congressional Republicans might wish to offset the latter, at least partially, by slashing spending, including on social security and health. But Mr Trump opposes this.
國會的共和黨人可能希望通過削減社保、醫療等方面的開支至少部分地彌補後者。
Together, then, Mr Trump’s populism and the Republicans’ tax-cutting mania might open up large and permanent increases in fiscal deficits.
於是，特朗普的民粹主義與共和黨的減稅狂熱結合在一起，或許會導致財政赤字大規模不斷增加。
This would then pose a big challenge for the US Federal Reserve.
這將給美聯儲(Fed)帶來巨大挑戰。
The obvious response would be to tighten monetary policy.
美聯儲的迴應很可能是收緊貨幣政策。
Mr Trump has indicated he favours this.
特朗普曾表示自己贊成這樣。
But he has also suggested the economy should grow at close to 4 per cent a year.
但他也表示過，美國經濟應該以每年接近4%的速度增長。
That seems impossible given the slow growth of the labour force.
考慮到勞動力的緩慢增長，這好像是不可能的。
Yet when choosing a replacement for Janet Yellen, Fed chair, by 2018, Mr Trump might look for someone who would run monetary policy on the assumption that such growth was feasible.
然而，2018年選擇美聯儲主席珍妮特.耶倫(Janet Yellen)的繼任者時，特朗普或許會尋找一位在假定這一增速可行的情況下實施貨幣政策的人士。
The result would be the classic populist blend of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies.
結果將會是經典民粹主義組合：超寬鬆的財政和貨幣政策的結合。
The effects are likely to be rising inflation, higher long-term nominal interest rates and a weak dollar.
這很可能將導致通脹走高，長期名義利率上漲，美元走軟。
That might mark a transformation in the global monetary regime.
這或將標誌着全球貨幣機制的轉變。
It could even generate the sort of environment seen in the 1970s, when President Richard Nixon and Arthur Burns, Fed chairman, were in charge.
這甚至會導致上世紀70年代的一幕重現，當時掌舵的是總統理查德.尼克松(Richard Nixon)和美聯儲主席亞瑟.伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)。
What actually happens depends both on whether Mr Trump does as president what he stated as candidate, and on his interaction with Congress.
實際會發生什麼既取決於特朗普擔任總統時會不會履行競選期間的承諾，也取決於他與國會的互動。
Some suggest that wiser heads will contain his excesses.
有人認爲，國會中頭腦較智慧的人將約束他的過度行爲。
Little in his past behaviour suggests this is all that plausible.
但從他過去的行爲中幾乎看不出這可信。
Make no mistake: Mr Trump’s triumph might destabilise the US and world economies.
別搞錯：特朗普的勝利可能會動搖美國和世界經濟的穩定。
