中國走出通縮將影響全球

At the end of last year, a group of investors decided to take the Nasdaq-listed, China-based company Qihoo 360 private. Their biggest concern was whether they could get a high enough price. They did, $9.3bn including the assumption of $1.6bn in debt. But the authorities’ sharp watch against capital outflows meant the process took far longer than originally expected. That is because according to Chinese law these investors, led by Sequoia Capital China, had to create a domestic company on the mainland to buy the Qihoo shares from foreign investors. The subsequent Money transfer to those offshore holders required approval from Beijing which took far longer than expected.

去年底，一些投資者決定將在納斯達克(Nasdaq)上市、總部位於中國的奇虎360(Qihoo 360)私有化。他們最擔憂的是價格是否會足夠高。他們如願以償，總價93億美元，包括承擔16億美元債務。但中國當局嚴防資本流出的姿態意味着，這個過程耗費的時間遠遠超過最初的預期。這是因爲根據中國法律，以紅杉資本中國基金(Sequoia Capital China)爲首的這些投資者必須在中國境內設立一家公司，從外國投資者手中收購奇虎的股票。隨後向這些境外持股者的資金轉賬需要獲得中國當局批准，所花的時間遠遠超出預期。

It is just over a year since the renminbi’s surprise 1.9 per cent depreciation and an additional 4.3 per cent drop in value against the dollar later. Today the delicate balancing act between allowing the currency to slowly drop, yet avoiding giving rise to massive capital outflows, continues. July saw an acceleration in net capital outflows yet again, though not nearly as dire as in January or a year ago.

一年多前，人民幣兌美元匯率意外貶值1.9%，後來又貶值了4.3%。直至今日，中國當局仍在力求在允許人民幣緩慢貶值和避免由此導致大規模資金外流之間達到微妙平衡。今年7月，資金淨流出再次加速，不過不像1月或一年前那樣嚴重。

Meanwhile, beyond the intervention of the authorities to temper the flows, the fundamentals that partly determine the value of the Chinese currency are shifting.

與此同時，除了中國當局採取干預措施緩和資本流動，影響人民幣匯率的基本面因素也正在發生變化。

Most notably, China is on the verge of changing from an economy where prices keep dropping to one in which deflation is expected to dwindle to almost nothing. That is a dramatic departure from the past 50 months, when deflation dragged down not only prices in China but in most of the world, thanks to exports of ever cheaper manufactured goods, as well as falling commodity prices.

最引人注目的是，中國經濟即將從價格持續下跌的狀態，轉向通縮預計將降至接近零的狀態。過去50個月，中國的通縮不僅壓低了國內價格水平，也壓低了全球多數地區的價格水平，這是由於越來越廉價的製造業產品出口以及大宗商品價格下跌。如今看來，這段時期即將結束了。

The end of deflation “is the most positive development for China,” says Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)中國首席經濟學家朱海斌表示，通縮結束“對於中國而言是最積極的進展”。

The consequences will be felt both in China and around the world. The deflation was especially severe in producer prices — a reflection of the perpetual oversupply in many sectors of the economy, especially those dominated by the State-owned enterprises. Thus in the most recent month, producer prices fell 1.7 per cent year on year compared to 2.6 per cent in June. But on a monthly basis, they actually rose 0.2 per cent, led by metals prices, thanks to continuing infrastructure and property investment. By the end of July, the country was already on its way to meeting its steel and coal reduction targets, according to research from ANZ. Slower industrial production and less investment is exactly what the mainland requires.

中國以及全世界都將感受到影響。生產者價格的通縮問題尤爲嚴重，這反映出中國經濟很多行業長期供應過剩，特別是那些由國有企業主宰的行業。根據最新月度數據，7月生產者價格同比下跌1.7%，降幅較6月的2.6%縮窄。但按環比計算，生產者價格實際上漲0.2%，金屬價格漲幅領先，這是得益於基礎設施和房地產投資活動持續。根據澳新銀行(ANZ)的研究，截至7月底，中國已經處在朝着鋼鐵和煤炭產能削減目標前進的道路上。工業生產放緩以及投資減少正是中國內地需要的。

If analysts’ expectations that deflation is coming to an end are right, the real burden of debt will become lighter, providing some relief to over indebted corporates, and removing the biggest cloud over the country — the concern that the growth of debt is unsustainable and a financial crisis is inevitable. It also takes pressure off the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates and bank reserve ratios at a time when many fear that monetary policy is too tight, yet the central bank fears lowering rates lest it spark more outflows.

分析師預測，中國的通縮即將結束。如果這種預測正確的話，實際的債務負擔將減輕，這將讓那些負債過高的企業鬆一口氣，同時驅散籠罩在中國上空的最大一塊陰雲，即對於債務增長不可持續且一場金融危機不可避免的擔心。此外，在很多人擔心貨幣政策過於緊縮、而央行擔心下調利率會引發更多資金外流之際，這還將消除央行下調利率和商業銀行存款準備金率的壓力。

“The real borrowing cost is being significantly reduced for Chinese corporates,” adds Mr Zhu. “It was 7 per cent to 8 per cent last year but could fall to below 2 per cent in real terms.” Moreover, after a trend for a lack of profits last year, Mr Zhu expects a far brighter profit picture for 2016.

“中國企業的實際借款成本正在顯著下滑，”朱海斌補充稱，“去年是7%至8%，但以實際值計算可能降至2%以下。”另外，在去年企業利潤欠佳的趨勢過後，朱海斌預測，今年的利潤前景要光明的多。

Other forces are also helping Chinese corporates deal with their debts. Even if the central bank doesn’t lower rates, the banks are under competitive pressure from a domestic bond market that poses an increasingly attractive alternative to loans.

其他一些因素也有利於中國企業應對債務問題。即便央行不降息，國內債券市場的發展也對銀行構成競爭壓力，這個市場提供的不同於貸款的資金來源越來越有吸引力。

“Chinese bonds have outperformed US bonds in dollar terms since 2014 and China is the only country in the SDR basket whose bonds pay positive nominal and real yields,” notes Jan Dehn, head of research for Ashmore Group in London.

倫敦安石投資集團(Ashmore)的研究主管簡•德恩(Jan Dehn)指出：“自2014年以來，以美元計，中國債券的表現一直優於美國債券。在特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子中，中國是唯一一個名義和實際債券收益率均爲正的國家。”

To be sure, inflation is always a double-edged sword. If it rises too sharply, investors could demand higher yields on securities to compensate, and the renminbi could drop, precipitating another more vicious round of capital outflows. But Japan, mired in deflation, shows the perils of that state of affairs. At the moment, Chinese households, unlike their counterparts in Japan, can generally earn positive yields on their investments in the government bond market, lending support to consumption.

當然，通脹永遠是一把雙刃劍。如果它上漲太快，投資者可能會要求更高的證券收益率作爲補償，人民幣可能會貶值，從而引發另一輪更嚴重的資金外流。然而，身陷通縮泥潭的日本展示了通縮的危險。目前，與日本家庭不同，中國家庭在政府債券市場的投資基本能夠獲得正向收益，這將對消費構成支持。

This is not the artificially high growth of 2009 which drove global commodities to unsustainably high levels. And certainly, China is probably many years away from being a global safe haven. But at least it no longer appears an imminent sink hole either.

現在並不是2009年那種人爲高增長的情況，當時中國的經濟增長推動全球大宗商品價格升至不可持續的高位。當然，中國距離成爲一個全球避風港或許還需要很多年。但至少它看上去已不再是一個即將沉陷的洞穴了。