中國資本外流讓港元面臨上行壓力
Hong Kong’s dollar peg is tough. In its 30-plus years it has withstood landmark currency accords, two financial crises and Sars, not to mention perennial debate about its suitability. But the world’s longest-running, unchanged currency regime is facing a fresh challenge: its neighbour, the renminbi.
港元盯住美元的聯繫匯率制度相當穩固。在實行這一制度的30多年間，它不僅經受住了里程碑式貨幣協定、兩次金融危機以及“非典”(SARS)的衝擊，更經受住了年復一年的、關於這一制度是否合時宜的爭論。但這個世界上實行時間最長、未曾發生過改變的匯率制度正面臨新的挑戰，這一挑戰來自中國內地的人民幣。
With data on Chinese capital flows slow to emerge, Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar has become a gauge of just how much the August devaluation has unsettled investors.
由於中國資本流動數據不會很快出來，港元與美元的掛鉤已成爲衡量8月份人民幣貶值在多大程度上引發了投資者不安的標尺。
Since that shock Move the Hong Kong dollar has whipsawed within its narrow band versus its US counterpart. Initially speculation mounted that a weaker renminbi would force Hong Kong to devalue its currency, and this pushed it lower. Beijing’s still-tight control of its currency since the move, however, has eased that pressure.
自人民幣意外貶值以來，港元兌美元匯率一直在狹窄區間內來回波動。最初，越來越多的猜測認爲，人民幣走弱將迫使香港當局讓港元貶值，這種猜測一度推低了港元匯率。然而，北京方面此後對人民幣匯率依舊嚴格的管控，緩解了港元面臨的貶值壓力。
Amid suspected outflows from China following the devaluation the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened to defend the stronger end of the currency’s HK$7.75 to HK$7.78 range.
在人民幣貶值後資本疑似流出中國的背景下，香港金融管理局(HKMA)對匯市實施了干預，以守衛1美元兌7.75港元至1美元兌至7.78港元的匯率區間強方。
The city-state’s peg is technically a currency board — its monetary base is fully backed by equivalent dollar reserves — and this has given it strong credibility in the markets. Defending strength involves selling local currency, which the HKMA can in theory do for ever.
香港的聯繫匯率制嚴格來說是一種貨幣局制度——其貨幣基礎得到等值美元儲備的全額支撐——因此這種制度在市場上擁有很強的可信度。守衛匯率區間強方涉及的是賣出本幣，這種情況下，香港金管局理論上擁有無限的彈藥。
“A lot of people got that wrong,” says Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia currency and rates strategy at Barclays. “They first looked for what was exposed and saw the Hong Kong dollar. But what was really unappreciated was where flows into China were coming from — which was Hong Kong — and how those could reverse.”
“很多人都搞錯了。”巴克萊(Barclays)亞洲外匯與利率策略主管米圖爾科特查(Mitul Kotecha)說，“他們首先尋找哪些貨幣受到衝擊，然後發現了港元。但他們根本沒意識到流入中國的資金來自哪裏——是來自香港——以及這些資金會如何撤退。”
Figures for deposits in Hong Kong during August are due this week and will be scrutinised for any signs of a shift between those in renminbi — about 10 per cent of the total — and local currency. Not all the renminbi deposits are from the mainland; many local savers hold funds in both currencies, largely to bet on renminbi appreciation.
香港8月的存款數據將在本週發佈，屆時市場將仔細研讀這些數據，以尋找一切關於人民幣存款（佔香港存款總額的10%）與港元存款發生轉換的跡象。並非所有的人民幣存款都來自中國內地；許多香港儲戶都持有這兩種貨幣的資金，主要是爲了押注人民幣升值。
“People are assuming renminbi deposits will have gone down, although August might be too soon to show this,” says one strategist.
“人們正預期人民幣存款減少了，儘管8月的數據可能還呈現不出這一趨勢，”一名策略師說。
The HKMA has already hinted that there has been a shift. In its half-yearly review last week, the authority noted that its undertaking to buy dollars at HK$7.75 had been triggered “multiple times” this month, “possibly because of asset reallocations following the renminbi depreciation”.
香港金管局已暗示變化已經發生。在上週發佈的半年度報告中，該局指出，其以1美元兌7.75港元的匯率購買美元的保證（強方兌換保證——譯者注）本月已“多次”被觸發，“可能的原因是人民幣貶值後出現了資產重新配置”。
Hong Kong’s peg has over time made it a haven for various flows of capital seeking a dollar proxy or at least a staging post. Last summer it was Russia’s turn, when rising tensions with the US and a weakening rouble prompted companies to move funds to Hong Kong.
多年來，聯繫匯率制已使香港成爲尋找美元“替身”（或至少是尋找中轉站）的各式資本流動的避風港。去年夏天那波行情是俄羅斯引發的，當時俄美緊張關係的升級以及盧布的不斷貶值促使俄羅斯企業將資金轉移至香港。
The peg’s current period of upward pressure is, at 23 days and counting, its longest since December 2012. At that time the peg was being buffeted by a flood of US dollars from investors who, bolstered by quantitative easing, were seeking higher-yielding investments in the region.
港元與美元的掛鉤面臨的這一波上行壓力（目前已進入第23天，且還在持續）是自2012年12月以來持續時間最長的。彼時，香港的聯繫匯率制受到美元大量涌入造成的衝擊，這些美元來自在美國量化寬鬆政策支撐下到這一地區尋找更高投資回報的投資者。
