中國1月資本外流逾1100億美元

Chinese companies and residents sent More than $110bn out of the country in January alone, according to new estimates, as they continued to evade tightening capital controls amid another round of market turmoil.

根據最新估算，單單今年1月，中國企業和居民就向國外轉移資金逾1100億美元，在又一輪市場動盪之際，他們繼續擺脫日益收緊的資本管制。

Surging capital outflows from China have become a source of growing concern around the world and left Beijing scrambling to support its currency. Recently-released data showed the country’s foreign exchange reserves falling to their lowest level in almost four years in January.

從中國流出的資金日益飆升，已成爲全球日益擔憂的一個源頭，並迫使中國匆忙採取措施支持其貨幣。最近公佈的數據顯示，今年1月，中國外匯儲備降至近4年來最低。

In the first significant attempt to digest the capital flight amid January’s market turmoil in China, the Institute for International Finance estimated that $113bn had been sent out of the country in the month.

國際金融協會(Institute of International Finance)估計，今年1月中國有1130億美元資金流出，這是梳理今年1月市場動盪之際中國資金外流規模的首次重大嘗試。

That was more than in any month bar two in 2015, when it estimated a total of $637bn left China, down slightly from the estimate of $676bn it released last month. It also marked the 22nd month in a row of net outflows.

這一規模超過了2015年除兩個月之外的所有月份，當時該協會估計，2015年共有6370億美元資金流出中國，略低於上月公佈的6760億美元估值。這也是連續第22個月錄得淨流出。

The IIF is a Washington-based industry group that represents banks and insurers around the world. Its estimates are based on extrapolations from official Chinese data and it cautioned that its January figures amounted to only “an approximation of the magnitude of capital flows”.

國際金融協會是一個總部位於華盛頓的行業組織，代表全球銀行和保險公司。該協會估值基於對中國官方數據的推算，該協會警告稱，1月數據只是“資金流動規模的近似值”。

But the IIF’s figures shine a light on the extent of capital flight as they endeavour to capture funds leaving the country through unofficial channels, such as over-invoicing for exports and other methods used to circumvent official capital controls.

然而，國際金融協會的數據讓外界瞭解了資金外流的規模，包括通過非官方渠道流出的資金，例如虛開貿易發票以及其他用來繞過官方資本管制的方法。

“If anything, it looks too low,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior market strategist at RBS in Singapore, referring to the IIF’s estimate for January. “With FX reserves falling at $100bn a month it appears increasingly likely the central bank will allow the [renminbi] to slide lower again towards 7.00 against the dollar.”

常駐新加坡的蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)市場策略師曼蘇爾莫希-烏丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)在談到國際金融協會的1月估算時表示：“如果說有什麼不準確的話，那就是它看上去偏低了。中國外匯儲備正以每月1000億美元的速度減少，央行似乎越來越有可能允許（人民幣匯率）再次跌向7元人民幣兌1美元的水平。”

The IIF’s economists said that, based on recently-released official reserve data, they estimated that the Chinese government had spent $90bn intervening to prop up its currency in January.

國際金融協會的經濟學家表示，根據最近公佈的官方外匯儲備數據，他們估計，今年1月，中國政府已動用900億美元展開外匯干預，以支撐人民幣匯率。

Those interventions by the People’s Bank of China represented more than a quarter of the $342bn it spent in all of last year in response to outflows, the IIF said.

該協會表示，中國央行(PBoC)的這些干預代表着它已動用去年全年干預總規模（3420億美元）的逾四分之一。

However, Beijing remains reluctant to appear to crack down too much on capital outflows, said Zhou Hao, senior economist for Asia at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Tightening “could have a negative impact on people’s mindset. It could encourage more capital outflows because people would think something is wrong.”

然而，德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)駐新加坡亞洲高級經濟學家周浩表示，中國似乎仍不願過分打擊資金流出。收緊管制“可能會對人們的心理造成負面影響。這可能會鼓勵更多資金流出，因爲人們會認爲有些事情不對頭。”