關注社會:中國上演資本外逃？

China, once a catch basin for the world's money, is now watching cash stream out.

中國曾經吸引世界資金涌入，現在卻眼睜睜地看着資金流出。

Wealthy Chinese citizens are buying beachfront condos in Cyprus, paying big U.S. tuition bills for their children and stocking up on luxury goods in Singapore, frequently moving cash secretly through a flourishing network of money-transfer agents. Chinese companies, for their part, are making big-ticket foreign acquisitions, buying up natural resources and letting foreign profits accumulate overseas.

中國富人在塞浦路斯購買海濱公寓，花高昂學費送子女去美國上學，並在新加坡囤積奢侈品。他們通過一個方興未艾的匯款中介網絡頻繁而悄悄地轉移資金。中國企業也沒閒着，它們在海外從事大額收購，大肆採購自然資源，並任由海外利潤在海外積累。

China hasn't reported on capital inflows and outflows since last year, but it is possible to gauge more recent flows using trade data, foreign-exchange reserves numbers released Saturday and other economic statistics. A Wall Street Journal analysis of that data suggests that in the 12 months through September, about $225 billion flowed out of China, equivalent to about 3% of the nation's economic output last year. Associated Press

9月21日，一名男子在北京舉辦的中國房地產投資展上瀏覽國外開發商的展臺。中國從去年以來就沒有發佈過有關資本出入情況的報告，但利用週六發佈的貿易數據、外匯儲備數據和其他經濟統計資料，仍可評估後來的資金流動情況。根據《華爾街日報》對這些數據的分析，截至9月份的12個月，約2,250億美元的資金流出中國，相當於去年全國經濟產值的3%左右。

'We all noticed what we suspected, which is that there was significant capital flight,' says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University who witnessed capital flight up close in his previous career trading Latin American distressed debt. 'It's not a good sign when local businessmen begin to think it's better to take money offshore, especially when the world economy is in such bad shape.'

北京大學金融學教授佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)說，我們都看到了所懷疑的情況，即存在大量資本外逃；當國內商人開始覺得把資金轉移出國是更好的選擇時，這不是一個好的兆頭，特別是在世界經濟如此糟糕的時候。佩蒂斯在交易拉丁美洲不良債券的從業經歷中，曾近距離見證資本外逃。

China officially maintains a closed capital account, meaning it restricts the ability of individuals and businesses to move money across its borders. Chinese individuals aren't allowed to move more than $50,000 per year out of the country. Chinese companies can exchange yuan for foreign currencies only for approved business purposes, such as paying for imports or approved foreign investments.

中國名義上仍維持封閉的資本賬戶，即限制個人和企業的跨境資金轉移。中國公民個人每年轉移出境的資金不得超過5萬美元，中國企業只有爲經過批准的商業目的，如爲進口產品或經過批准的境外投資付款，才能將人民幣兌換成外幣。

In reality, the closed system has become more porous and the rules are routinely ignored. 'The wealthy in China have always had an open capital account,' says Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist and former International Monetary Fund official.

在現實生活中，這個封閉系統的漏洞越來越多，規則常常不被遵守。康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經濟學家、曾任職國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說，中國富人的資本賬戶一直是開放的。

Zheng Nan recently spent 300,000 ($390,000) on a beachfront condo in Cyprus. At 50 years old, he says he is retired from selling telecommunications gear in China for foreign manufacturers. 'My plan is to spend winter there because of the pollution in Beijing,' he says. 'And we will be back for summer.'

鄭南（音）最近花30萬歐元（39萬美元）在塞浦路斯買了一套海濱公寓。現年50歲的鄭南說，他原來是在國內爲外資廠商銷售電信設備，現在已經退休。他說，因爲北京的污染，我打算去那裏過冬，夏天我們就會回來。

China's $50,000-a-year limit on moving capital out presented a problem for him. He says he got around the restriction by recruiting friends to move chunks of his money under their own names. Real-estate agents in China say that is a common practice that is largely tolerated by authorities.

中國每年5萬美元的資金轉出限額給他帶來了困難。他說，多數資金都是通過讓朋友按他們的名義轉出，從而繞開這個限制。中國的房地產中介說，這是一個基本上被有關部門默許的常見做法。

For years, China's economy benefited from large flows of cash into the country from exports and from foreign investors. Incoming dollars were exchanged for yuan at China's central bank, putting more yuan into the economy. That made it easier for banks to lend and companies to grow, but it also stoked inflation and contributed to real-estate and stock-market bubbles.

多年來，中國經濟一直受益於出口和外商投資帶來的大額資金流入。進入國內的美元在央行換成人民幣，使更多人民幣進入經濟體。這有利於銀行放貸和公司擴張，但也引起通貨膨脹，催生了樓市、股市泡沫。

When money leaves, that system swings into reverse, and there is less money available to fund growth. The outflow of money began to pick up in mid-2011, when concern about slowing economic growth, stalled yuan appreciation and falling stock and real-estate prices made holding cash in China less appealing. Money has left China before, most recently during the financial crisis, when outflows peaked at about $110 billion in the 12 months ended March 2009, the Journal's calculations indicate.

當資金流出中國時，這套體系就會產生相反的作用，能夠助力經濟增長的資金數量會減少。資金流出的現象在2011年中開始擡頭，當時有關中國經濟增速放緩的擔憂、人民幣匯率漲勢中止以及股票和房地產價格下跌都令在中國持有現金的吸引力下降。資金此前也曾流出中國，最近一次是在金融危機期間。《華爾街日報》的計算顯示，在截至2009年3月的12個月內，資金流出數量達到大約1,100億美元的高峯。

The outflow helps explain why China's banks have been slow to increase lending this year. Accelerated outflows might force China's central bank to push the yuan to appreciate more strongly against foreign currencies, to encourage Chinese investors to keep their money in the country.

資金流出有助於解釋中資銀行今年以來貸款增速放緩的原因。資金流出速度加快可能迫使中國央行加大人民幣匯率的升值幅度，以鼓勵中國投資者將資金留在國內。

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, part of China's central bank, said in a statement that China experienced 'a certain degree of capital outflows' in the first half of this year. It attributed the outflows largely to more investment overseas by Chinese companies and individuals. It said it wasn't concerned that the outflows could destabilize the economy.

中國央行下屬的國家外匯管理局在一份聲明中說，今年上半年中國經歷了一定程度的資本流出。它將資本流出的主要原因歸結爲中國企業和個人海外投資數量的增加，還說它並不擔心資本流出可能破壞中國經濟。

In 1998, during the Asian financial crisis, Indonesia saw the equivalent of 23% of its annual economic output leave the country─far higher than the 3% estimated to have exited China over the recent 12-month period. China's economy is protected from such catastrophic outflows by its restrictions on capital movement and by its substantial foreign-currency reserves, currently $3.29 trillion.

1998年亞洲金融危機期間，流出印尼的資金數量大致相當於其年度經濟產出的23%，遠高於外界估計最近12個月內流出中國的資金數量，後者佔中國年度經濟產出的比重爲3%。由於中國限制資本流動，且擁有龐大的外匯儲備（目前爲3.29萬億美元），因此中國經濟能夠避免此類帶來災難性後果的資本流出現象。

The Journal's $225 billion estimate for the year ended in September captures both legal capital outflow and some of the illicit flow. Several economists also have attempted to calculate outflow. Charles Dumas, an economist at Lombard Street Research, estimated net outflows of $300 billion over the same period.

《華爾街日報》估計在截止今年9月的一年內流出中國的資金數量達到2,250億美元，這同時包括合法和非法的資金流出額。多位經濟學家也試圖估算流出中國的資金數量。研究機構Lombard Street Research的經濟學家杜馬(Charles Dumas)估計同期中國資金淨流出數量爲3,000億美元。

To gauge the size of the outflow, the Journal compared the change in the country's foreign-exchange reserves with changes in the main components that cause reserves to rise and fall: the trade surplus, foreign direct investment, interest on foreign assets and movements in exchange rates.

爲了估計資金流出的規模，《華爾街日報》比較了中國外匯儲備的變動規模和導致外匯儲備增減的主要項目的變化情況。這些項目包括貿易順差、外國直接投資、外國資產生息以及匯率的變動。

The two sides of the equation should match. If foreign-exchange reserves increase more than the sum of the components, it suggests extra cash is flowing into China. If reserves increase less, or even fall, it means money is somehow getting out. China's foreign currency reserves saw their first quarterly drop since 1998 in the last quarter of 2011, and fell again in the second quarter of 2012, a sign that the outflows had increased to the point that they offset inflows from trade, foreign direct investment and interest paid on existing reserves.

等式的兩邊應該一致。如果外匯儲備的增量大於上述各項之和的增量，這就表明資金淨流入中國；如果外匯儲備的增量小於上述各項之和的增量，甚至開始下降，這就意味着資金因某種原因流出中國。2011年四季度中國外匯儲備規模自1998年以來出現首次季度下滑，2012年二季度再次出現這種現象。這一跡象表明，資金流出的規模已經大到足以抵消因貿易順差、外國直接投資及現有儲備生息所流入的資金總量。

One factor contributing to the reduced reserves is that Chinese exporters are keeping more of the money they make abroad in dollars, rather than converting it to yuan, economists say.

經濟學家說，導致外匯儲備減少的一個因素是，中國出口企業把在境外賺到的錢更多地以美元形式持有，而不是兌換成人民幣。

Because the $225 billion figure is derived from broad economic statistics, it is impossible to say how much of the outflow is legitimate personal and corporate transactions and how much was moved illegally or was the product of illegal activities.

由於2,250億美元的資金流出量是根據廣泛的經濟統計數據計算出來的，所以我們無法知道這其中有多少是個人和企業的合法交易，又有多少是非法流出中國或是非法活動造成的。

A sprawling industry has developed to help Chinese get money out. Services range from the money-transfer agents to private jets that ferry money by customs officials unmolested, according to lawyers and brokers who help Chinese investors find investments abroad. Sometimes bank transfers by companies hide personal money being moved out, these people say. Another method is to piggyback personal cash atop legitimate export and import transactions, at times by using fake invoices, they say. People even carry bags of cash across the border.

在幫助中國人將資金轉移到海外這個問題上，已經形成了一個龐大的產業。據律師和幫助中國投資者在海外尋找投資項目的經紀商說，服務項目從匯款中介到由海關人員毫無顧忌地運送現金的私人飛機等不一而足。上述人士說，有時候，企業進行的銀行轉賬可以掩蓋向海外轉移的個人資金。這些人士說，另外一種方法是將個人現金附帶在合法進出口交易中，有時是通過僞造假髮票。人們甚至會攜帶整包整包的現金出境。

Charlie Zhang, an agent in Shenzhen who matches wealthy mainlanders with real-estate investments abroad, says getting money out isn't a problem.

深圳中介Charlie Zhang說，將資金轉移到海外一點都不難。他爲內地有錢人與海外房地產投資項目之間牽線搭橋。

'We suggest them to other people, some special channel, that can exchange money outside the banks, outside supervision,' Mr. Zhang says. 'It's not hard for people to solve this problem.'

他說，我們把他們介紹給其他人，一些特殊渠道，這些渠道能夠在銀行之外、不受監管地換匯。解決這個問題並不難。

Cyprus has become a popular investment destination for wealthy Chinese. The island nation in the Eastern Mediterranean gives permanent European Union residency to anyone who spends 300,000 on a property.

塞浦路斯已經成爲一個頗受中國有錢人歡迎的投資目的地。這個位於地中海東部的島國會給予任何在該國花30萬歐元買下房產的人歐盟永久居留身份。

'People in China are rich,' says Arthur Cheung, a Hong Kong-based immigration consultant who matches Chinese buyers with foreign property sellers, including from Cyprus. 'They just buy a passport or permanent residency like a Louis Vuitton bag.'

香港移民顧問Arthur Cheung說，中國人有錢。他們買護照或永久居留身份就像買個路易威登包一樣。他爲中國買家與包括塞浦路斯在內的外國房產銷售商之間牽線搭橋。

Paschali Developers in Cyprus has sold more than 90 condos to Chinese buyers in recent months. company spokesman Paschalis Paschali says buyers want to get residency. He declined to discuss how the company's Chinese customers get their money out.

塞浦路斯房地產開發商Paschali Developers近幾個月已經向中國買家銷售了90多套公寓。該公司發言人帕斯卡利(Paschalis Paschali)說，買房者希望獲得永久居留身份。他拒絕透露該公司的中國客戶是如何將資金轉移到海外的。

Evis Hadjipetrou, business-development manager for Pafilia Property Developers in Cyprus, says the company has sold 30 condos with Mediterranean views in the past four months to buyers from mainland China. He says he was assured by his Chinese partners who helped line up buyers─among them an agency that is a subsidiary of the Ministry of Commerce, he says─not to worry about the restrictions on moving money. A ministry spokesman declined to comment.

塞浦路斯房地產開發商Pafilia Property Developers業務發展經理(Evis Hadjipetrou)說，該公司過去四個月向中國內地買家銷售了30套可以看到地中海美景的公寓。他說，他從他的中國合作伙伴得到了保證，不必擔心中國對資金轉移的限制。他的合作伙伴幫助找買家，他說其中包括中國商務部下屬的一個機構。商務部發言人不予置評。

Hong Kong, although part of China, has a separate financial system and currency─and no restrictions on outbound capital. Consequently, there are restrictions on mainland Chinese moving money to Hong Kong.

香港雖然是中國的一部分，但擁有獨立的金融系統和貨幣，而且對資金外流沒有限制。因此，中國內地人向香港轉移資金是受限制的。

One legal way that some elite Chinese have gotten money offshore is by taking their companies public in Hong Kong, then selling shares. Since 2005, 350 mainland companies have raised more than US$150 billion in Hong Kong, according to data provider Dealogic. Company owners can accomplish the same thing by listing in New York or Singapore.

一些中國精英人士將資金轉移到海外的一種合法途徑是，將自己的公司在香港上市，然後出售股份。據數據提供商Dealogic的數據，自2005年以來，350家內地公司在香港共籌集了逾1,500億美元。公司所有者也可以通過將公司在紐約或新加坡上市而達到同樣的目的。

Many other Chinese have resorted to money-transfer agents operating outside the official banking system. The agents provide loans and transfers that Chinese use to evade the limit on overseas transfers. Working as a money-transfer agent is illegal in China, but it is perfectly legal and lightly regulated in Hong Kong.

其他很多中國人則求助於在官方銀行系統之外運作的匯款中介。中介提供中國人可以用以逃避海外轉賬限制的貸款和轉賬。在中國內地做匯款中介是違法的，但在香港則是完全合法的，而且監管也不是很嚴。

In Chongqing, home to purged Communist Party official Bo Xilai, authorities closed a money-transfer organization they said moved $10 billion for clients. They said it was run by Chen Huizhuan, a 36-year-old former electronics saleswoman, with the help of her extended family. In July, she was sentenced to six years in jail. A lawyer for Ms. Chen, contacted through intermediaries, declined to comment.

在被罷免的中共官員薄熙來曾經主政的重慶，有關部門關閉了一家地下錢莊，並稱這家機構爲客戶轉移了摺合100億美元的資金。有關部門說，這家錢莊由36歲的陳惠專在其一大家人的協助下經營，她曾從事過電子產品銷售工作。今年七月，陳惠專被判處六年有期徒刑。記者曾通過中間人聯繫過陳惠專的律師，但他拒絕發表評論。

People with direct knowledge of the case say there was a large transfer by Qi Gang, a construction project manager from eastern Zhejiang province who they say was a client of Ms. Chen. In January 2011, Mr. Qi lost the equivalent of $1.3 million in two days of gambling with borrowed money at a Macau casino, these people allege. Macau, like Hong Kong, is part of China but has its own financial system, and mainlanders face the same restrictions on moving money there. Mr. Qi had the money to pay off his debt, these people say. The problem was getting it out of China.

直接瞭解這件案子的人說，浙江一個工程項目的負責人祁剛（音）曾向海外轉移過一大筆錢，他們說祁剛是陳惠專的一個客戶。這些人說，2011年1月，祁剛用借來的錢在澳門賭場內賭博，兩天時間內輸掉了相當於130萬美元的賭資，澳門跟香港一樣，都是中國的一部分，但它有自己的金融體系，中國內地人將資金轉入澳門時所受到的限制與他們向海外轉移資金時受到的限制一樣。上述人士說，祁剛有還賭債的錢。問題是如何將錢轉移出中國。

Mr. Qi's company, which wasn't identified by authorities, transferred the cash into an account set up by Ms. Chen in Chongqing, claiming it was paying for building materials, say the people knowledgeable about the case. Then Ms. Chen had the equivalent amount in Hong Kong dollars deposited into a separate account belonging to the entity that had lent Mr. Qi the gambling money, they say.

祁剛的公司未獲得政府的資質認證。據知情人士說，這家公司將祁剛準備還賭債的錢轉入陳惠專在重慶開立的一個賬戶，稱這筆錢是用來支付建築材料款的。他們說，隨後陳惠專將與這筆錢等值的一筆港元存入了由那家借賭資給祁剛的實體所有的一個賬戶。

'No funds actually cross the border, so this method is difficult to detect and impossible to measure,' says Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank, who has studied Chinese money flows but has no direct knowledge of the case. 渣打銀行(Standard Chartered Bank)

中國研究部負責人王志浩(Stephen Green)說，在這樁交易中實際上沒有資金被匯出境外，所以這種轉移資金的方法難以被偵查到，人們也不可能算出以這種方式轉移的資金究竟有多少。王志浩一直在研究中國的資金外流問題，但他並不掌握此案的第一手材料。

Mr. Qi couldn't be reached for comment. It is unclear whether he has been charged with any wrongdoing.

記者無法獲得祁剛對此事的評論。不清楚他是否已經被起訴。

A recent decision by Hong Kong's highest court highlighted the territory's role as a facilitator for mainland money to escape. Yan Suiling, a wealthy Amway saleswoman, insurance agent and restaurateur in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, moved $2 million via a money-transfer agent from the mainland to Hong Kong between 2007 and 2009, according to case records and lawyers involved with the case. She used the money to invest in Hong Kong's stock market.

香港最高法院最近的一項裁決彰顯了香港在方便內地資金出逃方面所扮演的角色。身家不菲的嚴穗陵在廣州身兼安利公司(Amway)銷售員、保險代理人和餐館老闆三重身份，據案卷記載和涉案律師說，她在2007至2009年期間通過地下錢莊將200萬美元從中國內地轉移至香港。她將這筆錢投資於香港的股票市場。

Ms. Yan got into trouble when a check deposited in her Hong Kong account in one of the transactions included proceeds that Hong Kong authorities traced to a $1 million mortgage fraud by someone else. Despite having no involvement in the mortgage fraud, she was convicted in a Hong Kong court of money laundering and served 18 months in prison.

嚴穗陵的這些資金轉移交易中有一筆支票存入了她在香港的銀行賬戶，而這張支票上的一部分錢被香港政府認定屬於其他某個人所實施一項100萬美元按揭貸款詐騙案的非法所得，嚴穗陵也因此惹上了麻煩。儘管她沒有參與這樁欺詐案，但香港一家法院仍然認定她的洗錢罪名成立，並判處其18個月監禁。

On appeal, her lawyers argued that she thought the money was part of a money transfer and couldn't be expected to know it had come from the mortgage fraud. While such transfers are against the rules on the mainland, they are permitted in free-market-oriented Hong Kong. Her lawyers declined to comment, and Ms. Yan didn't respond to a request for comment.

她的律師在就這一判決提起上訴時稱，她當時只認爲這筆錢是地下錢莊幫她從內地所轉來資金的一部分，不可能知道這錢來自按揭貸款欺詐所得。雖然通過地下錢莊轉移資金出境違反了中國內地的法規，但在以自由市場爲導向的香港此舉卻是被允許的。她的律師拒絕發表評論，嚴穗陵沒有回覆置評請求。

Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeal agreed and cleared her record. The court said it was 'not surprising' that she would 'find it necessary' to use a money-transfer agent since she had to evade the mainland's currency regulations in order to invest in Hong Kong's stock market.

香港終審法院同意了律師提出的這一觀點，並免除了嚴穗陵的罪責。這家法院說，它對嚴穗陵發現有必要藉助地下錢莊這一事實“並不感到驚訝”，因爲爲了投資香港股市她不得不繞開中國內地的貨幣監管。