中國經濟將遭遇"硬着陸"實屬過分誇大
The Economist Intelligence Unit claimed China was set for a hard landing in its latest global risk analysis report. Closer inspection of the Chinese economy shows that to be a false alarm.
近日，經濟學人智庫在最新的全球風險分析報告指出，中國經濟將遭遇“硬着陸”，但經過一番更加深入的調查發現這是一次錯誤的警報。The forecasting and advisory services provider issued a report on last Thursday in which it forecast the top risk for the global economy was a sharp economic slowdown in China, due to what it saw as the country's febrile manufacturing sector, rising debt and growing downward pressure on the renminbi due to capital flight.
這家風險諮詢信息機構在上週四發表的一份報告中稱，全球經濟的最大風險來自於中國經濟的急速下滑，這主要是由於中國國內過熱的製造行業，負債不斷增加以及來自人民幣在資本市場的下行壓力造成的。The think tank is right that the Chinese economy is experiencing headwinds, but this is hardly breaking news. The country's leadership has spoken at length about the challenges brought by the new normal growth rate and structural reform.
經濟學人智庫關於中國經濟遭遇下滑壓力的分析很正確，但這早已不是什麼新聞了，中國的領導階層已經詳細地指出中國目前所面臨着由新常態增長率和經濟結構改革帶來的挑戰。
The manufacturing sector is struggling. Industrial investment is falling, the trade environment is worsening and overcapacity is weighing upon the sector. However, manufacturers are busy upgrading their systems and equipment, which will create a more competitive, innovative environment.
雖然中國的製造業陷入掙扎，也面臨着行業投資降低、貿易環境惡化以及行業臃腫的進一步加劇，但是與此同時，中國的製造企業正致力於系統和設備的升級改造，以創造更加具有競爭力和創新力的行業環境。Yes, the debt level is not low, but it is still manageable. The capital adequacy ratio of China's commercial banks is still below the international warning line, while their provision coverage ratio is above the government's requirement. Moreover, local government debt pressure will be eased by public-private-partnerships in costly infrastructure projects.
中國如今的負債水平的確不低，但仍處於一個合理的範圍內。雖然國內商業銀行的資本充足率仍然低於國際規定的警戒線水平，但這主要是因爲政府規定的資本充足率低於國際標準。此外，隨着大型基建項目公私合辦模式的推行，地方政府的財政壓力將得到大大緩解。Some weakening of the Chinese yuan in the short term is understandable. China's forex controls have been loosened and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment will unavoidably lead to capital outflows. Nevertheless, there is no basis for substantial yuan depreciation as China's trade surplus and forex reserve are more than adequate and its foreign debt is low.
當今人民幣在短期內處於弱勢是可以理解的，中國放寬了對外匯交易市場的管控，美聯儲的利率調整也會導致難以避免的資本外流。儘管如此，考慮到中國的貿易順差、充足的外匯儲備以及低的負債水平，認爲人民幣將大大貶值是毫無根據的。However, the report is right about one thing: Other countries are dependent on China for investment and products. A sharp slowdown would have a severe knock-on effect worldwide and is a scenario that nobody wants to see.
但是，報告中也有合理的地方，由於許多國家依賴於中國的投資和商品，一旦中國經濟遭遇驟降，這將會波及全球經濟，那將是所有人不願看到的。Despite the challenges, China is determined to keep GDP growth at a minimum of 6.5 percent this year while pressing ahead with economic restructuring.
儘管面對嚴峻的挑戰和經濟改革的壓力，中國政府仍有信心保持6.5%的最低GDP增長率。
