"印度龜"有望超過"中國兔"
When India put a cut-price satellite in orbit around Mars last September, one media company could not resist a comparison with China. Although the “Indian elephant” was losing to the “Chinese dragon” in most other respects, NDTV’s website said, at least Delhi was beating Beijing in the race to the red planet.
去年9月，當印度把一顆造價低廉的衛星送入火星軌道時，一家媒體公司忍不住拿印度與中國作對比。新德里電視臺(NDTV)網站說，雖然“印度象”在其他大多數方面都不如“中國龍”，但德里最起碼在奔向紅色行星的賽跑中跑贏了北京。
Meanwhile, back on planet earth, India may be about to steal another march on China. After years of peering over the Himalayas in awe at China’s superior growth rates, there is now a realistic prospect of India overtaking China on that measure too. The switch could happen as early as next year. That would make India the world’s fastest-growing large economy, finally thrusting it into the limelight after decades in China’s shadow. It might even bring democracy back into fashion. Delhi consensus anyone?
把目光轉回到地球，印度可能即將在另一場賽跑中偷偷跑到中國前頭。多年來，印度一直懷着敬畏之心注視着喜馬拉雅山另一邊中國的超高增長率。如今，印度在這項指標上也有了趕超中國的現實可能性。這種趕超可能最早在明年就會發生。若真的如此，印度屆時將成爲全球增長最快的大型經濟體。在中國的影子下度過了幾十年後，印度終於要一躍成爲萬衆矚目的焦點，甚至有可能推動民主再度成爲一種時尚。是否有人想討論下“德里共識”？The idea is not as outrageous as it sounds. For years, we had been used to China growing at double-digit rates. Now it is slowing. China’s labour force is shrinking and manufacturing is losing its power. More fundamentally, Chinese leaders recognise the need to change a model that relies too heavily on credit and energy inputs. China’s growth has already dropped to below 7.5 per cent. Before long, Beijing will probably allow it to settle down somewhere in the 6-7 per cent range. It would certainly take that option over a crisis, which could temporarily send growth much lower.
上述觀點並不像聽起來那麼離譜。多年來，我們已經習慣了中國以兩位數的速率增長。如今，中國的增長正在放緩。中國的勞動力正在萎縮，製造業正逐漸失去動力。更重要的是，中國領導人認識到有必要改變這種過於依賴信貸和能源投入的經濟增長模式。中國的增長速度已跌破7.5%，用不了多久，北京方面很可能會允許增速穩定在6%到7%之間的某一點上。它肯定寧願選擇這樣、也不願選擇一場危機，因爲危機可能會在短期內讓增速降到低得多的水平上。
India, meanwhile, may be about to go the other way. A Goldman Sachs report says the country is on the verge of a new growth cycle. The economy is in better shape. The current account and fiscal deficits have fallen, as has previously stubborn inflation. Cheap oil is a boon.
印度則可能將朝着相反的方向前進。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一份報告稱，印度即將進入新一輪增長週期，它的經濟形勢要好於以前。印度的經常賬戶赤字和財政赤字已經收窄，之前居高不下的通脹也已下降。廉價石油是一個福音。India also has political momentum. Although some are disappointed at what they regard as a timid start by Narendra Modi, the prime minister, there is a palpable sense of optimism these days. In theory, it should not take much to get the economy ticking over more effectively after a few years in the doldrums, when growth dropped to 5 per cent. So when might India overtake China? The World Bank puts it at 2017. In its latest forecasts, it predicts India will be growing at 7 per cent in that year, with China down to 6.9 per cent.
在政治上，印度也呈現出積極的勢頭。雖然有些人對印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)邁出的第一步感到失望（他們認爲這第一步邁得不夠大膽），但近來明顯能感受到一股樂觀情緒。理論上講，印度經濟在經歷了幾年的低潮期（其間增速降至5%）後，應該不會費太大力就能提高運行效率。那麼，印度可能會在什麼時候超過中國呢？世界銀行(World Bank)認爲是2017年。世行在其最新的預測中預計，2017年印度的增長速度將達到7%，而中國將降至6.9%。Predictions, especially such precise ones, should be taken with a generous helping of chilli powder (or oyster sauce if you are reading this in China). We have been here before. A few years ago, it was fashionable — especially in India — to describe the Indian tortoise as being on the verge of overtaking the Chinese hare. That prediction ended up as turtle soup.
這種預測——尤其是如此精確的預測——得就着一大份辣椒麪（或是蠔油，如果你是中國讀者的話）“享用”。我們有過這種經驗。幾年前曾流行將印度形容爲一隻馬上要超過中國兔的烏龜——這種觀點在印度國內尤其常見。這一預測最終變成了一碗龜湯。What could stop India this time? There are several things, but I shall stick to two. First, Mr Modi may find it harder than he imagines to remove bottlenecks. Reforms aimed at boosting manufacturing or encouraging capital investment may prove tougher to implement at national level than they did when he was running Gujarat. Besides, some reforms, such as relaxing the rules on foreign ownership of insurance companies, may not prove to be the magic bullets that industry lobbyists claim.
那麼這一次，有什麼能阻擋住印度呢？這樣的障礙有幾個，但我只講兩個。首先，莫迪可能會發現，掃除瓶頸比他想象的要難。事實可能會證明，在國家層面上實施旨在提振製造業或鼓勵資本投資的改革，其難度要大於他掌管古吉拉特邦時在該邦實施這些改革。事實可能還會證明，有些改革——比如放寬對外資持股印度保險公司的規定——可能並不是行業遊說團體所稱的那種靈丹妙藥。Second, and perhaps more fundamental, democratic India is still caught in an ideological battle over where to strike the balance between pursuit of growth and protection of the environment and land rights. The debate, ferocious at times, is being waged in the courts and in the public arena. In recent months, a leaked report by India’s intelligence bureau claimed that foreign-backed non-governmental organisations were using environmental concerns as a pretext to stymie India’s development. Conspiracy theories aside, tussles between activists and industrialists have held projects back. South Korea’s Posco has been fighting with local residents for years over plans to build a $12bn steel mill in the eastern state of Orissa. Vedanta, an Indian mining company, has failed to secure permission to mine bauxite in the same state because the nearby hills are held sacred by local people. Balancing the ambition to grow with other legitimate interests is an unsolved puzzle.
其次，或許也是更根本的，民主的印度仍困在意識形態鬥爭裏，還在糾結於在追求增長與保護環境和土地權利之間求得平衡。這場時不時變得如火如荼的辯論，眼下正在法庭和公共舞臺上上演。近幾個月，一份外泄的印度情報部門報告稱，外國支持的非政府組織以環境問題爲藉口阻礙印度的發展。先不談什麼陰謀論，行動主義者與實業家之間的角力已導致若干工程擱淺。韓國的浦項制鐵(Posco)爲了在印度東部奧里薩邦建立一座120億美元的鋼廠，幾年來一直在與當地居民鬥爭。還是在奧里薩邦，印度礦企韋丹塔(Vedanta)未能拿到開採鋁土礦的許可，因爲附近山脈被當地居民奉爲聖山。在實現增長的雄心與其他合法權益之間求得平衡是一個仍未得到解答的難題。In a very different context, similar concerns are playing out in China. Beijing, at least rhetorically, is now putting as much emphasis on the quality of growth as on the quantity. Responding to the central government’s lead, several cities have dropped gross domestic product as a performance metric and are emphasising environmental protection and poverty reduction instead. It would be an irony if India finally overtakes China in terms of headline growth just as the concept goes out of fashion.
雖然大環境與印度截然不同，但中國也出現了類似的擔憂。北京方面正將經濟增長的質量和數量擺在同等重要的位置上，至少口頭上是如此。爲了響應中央政府的號召，一些城市已經不再把國內生產總值(GDP)當作一項績效考覈指標，轉而強調環保和減貧。如果印度恰好是在整體增速的概念變得過時之際終於在整體增速上超過中國，那將是一大諷刺。
