特朗普能被政治精英馴服嗎
Remember when Donald Trump said, I alone can fix it? It turns out he will need help.
還記得唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)曾說過我一個人就能搞定嗎？事實證明，他也需要幫助。
Here is the good news.
現在有了好消息。
Mr Trump’s advisers are distancing the president-elect from some of his most outlandish promises — making Mexico pay for the border wall, for example.
特朗普的顧問們正在讓這位候任總統遠離他最荒誕的一些承諾——例如，讓墨西哥爲修建邊境隔離牆負擔費用。
The reason: Mr Trump’s team is already dominated by the special interests whose same grip he promised to end.
原因是特朗普的團隊已經被特殊利益集團把持，而後者對政治的主宰正是他承諾要終結的。
Having vowed a hostile takeover, the populist outsider is surrounding himself with insiders.
這位曾發誓進行敵意接管的、信奉民粹主義的局外人周圍已全是局內人。
Washington is rolling out the red carpet for Mr Trump.
華盛頓正在爲特朗普展開紅地毯。
There is not a pitchfork in sight.
沒人舉着乾草叉等他。
There are two dangers facing any populist who manages to get elected.
任何成功當選的民粹主義者都面臨兩大風險。
The first is the impossibility of carrying out most of their promises.
首先，他們的大多數競選承諾都不可能兌現。
Mr Trump is a populist on stilts.
特朗普是一個言行誇張的民粹主義者。
He vowed to make America great again, drain the swamp of corruption, and resurrect the forgotten blue-collar American.
他誓言要讓美國再次變得偉大，根除腐敗，讓被遺忘的藍領美國工人重新崛起。
He cannot satisfy such expectations.
他無法滿足人們的這些期待。
The second is that populist outsiders lack governing experience.
第二，信奉民粹主義的局外者缺乏執政經驗。
They must therefore rely on those who do — people who can write laws, draw up regulations, issue executive orders and so on.
因此，他們必須依賴有執政經驗的人士——能夠起草法律、制定法規、發佈行政命令等等的人。
These are the types who prefer things the way they are.
這些人都更傾向於循規蹈矩。
Less than a week after his stunning victory, Mr Trump has already acknowledged both realities.
取得令人震驚的勝利不到一週，特朗普就已承認了這兩大現實。
Beware a populist mugged by reality.
要當心一個被現實碾壓的民粹主義者。
When the public realises their champion lacks magical powers, they suffer buyer’s remorse.
當公衆意識到自己擁護的得勝者沒有魔力時，他們便會陷入買家懊悔(buyer’s remorse)之中。
At this point he must find methods of rekindling their support.
到那時，他必須找到能重新燃起他們的支持的方法。
In Mr Trump’s case, this would be a very worrisome prospect.
對特朗普而言，前景將非常令人擔憂。
For the time being, however, we are on phase one of the populist manual.
然而，目前我們還處於民粹主義的第一階段。
Mr Trump’s transition team will be run by Mike Pence, the vice-president-elect, and one of Washington’s most experienced operators.
特朗普的交接團隊將由當選副總統邁克.彭斯(Mike Pence)帶領，後者是華盛頓最有經驗的老司機之一。
Mr Pence is already being seen as a powerful — even prime ministerial — deputy in the mould of Dick Cheney in George W Bush’s first term.
彭斯早已被視爲一位實權、甚至總理式的副總統，類似迪克.切尼(Dick Cheney)在喬治.W.布什(George W Bush)第一任期的角色。
He will oversee the roughly 4,000 jobs to be filled.
他將負責填補約4000個崗位。
Some of these appointees, such as Rudy Giuliani, Ben Carson and possibly Sarah Palin, fit the Trumpian mindset.
其中一些被任命者，如魯迪.朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)、本.卡森(Ben Carson)、或許還有薩拉.佩林(Sarah Palin)，符合特朗普式的思維。
Most, however, will be experienced Washington hands.
然而，大多數被任命者都將是華盛頓經驗豐富的老手。
The seeds of Mr Trump’s backlash are already being sown.
特朗普遭遇反彈的種子早已播下。
As a small government conservative, Mr Pence’s worldview sits uneasily with Mr Trump’s populist nationalism — as is true of most of the Republican Party in Congress.
作爲一個小政府保守主義者，彭斯的世界觀與特朗普的民粹民族主義格格不入——國會中大多數共和黨人士也是如此。
But their fiscal visions overlap.
但是他們在財政方面的觀點有相同之處。
Mr Trump wants to sharply reduce income and corporate taxes.
特朗普希望大幅削減所得稅和企業稅。
He also wants to abolish the inheritance tax, which only the wealthiest Americans pay.
他還想廢除只有最富有的美國人才繳納的遺產稅。
These are the likeliest pieces of his agenda to go through.
這些是他議程上最有可能推進的部分。
They will only deepen the income inequality that helped sweep Mr Trump to power.
但這樣做只會加劇收入不均，而正是這種不均幫助特朗普登上了權力寶座。
So would repeal of Obamacare, which has brought 20m Americans into the insurance net — another goal on which Republicans and Mr Trump agree.
還有廢除已將2000萬美國人納入了保險網絡的奧巴馬醫改(Obamacare)——這是共和黨和特朗普的另一個一致目標。
It is too soon to know how each of these bills will be framed.
要知道這些法案將如何一一出臺還爲時尚早。
But they will not do much for the forgotten American.
但是它們不會爲被遺忘的美國人帶來多少好處。
Mr Trump’s tax cuts may stimulate growth.
特朗普的減稅計劃或許能刺激經濟增長。
But they would greatly enrich the wealthiest Americans without providing much relief to others.
但這樣做將大大增加最富有的美國人的財富，卻無法爲其他人提供多少救助。
Billionaires, such as Mr Trump, would be the biggest winners.
特朗普之類的億萬富翁將成爲最大的贏家。
Then there are Mr Trump’s amorphous business interests.
還有特朗普五花八門的商業利益。
Here we are in uncharted territory.
這是我們未知的領域。
Mr Trump will put control of his empire under a blind trust that will be run by three of his children, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Junior.
特朗普將把自己帝國的控制權置於一項保密信託(blind trust)之下，該信託將由他的三個子女——伊萬卡(Ivanka)、埃裏克(Eric)和小唐納德(Donald Jr)——負責。
There is patently nothing blind about this.
這裏顯然不存在任何保密。
All three have also taken leading positions on Mr Pence’s team that is busy staffing their father’s administration — the same one that will take regulatory, tax and enforcement decisions that will affect Trump Inc’s bottom line.
三人也都在彭斯忙於爲他們父親的政府招兵買馬的團隊中擔任領導職務，而特朗普政府作出的監管、稅收和執法決策也將影響特朗普公司(Trump Inc)的最終盈虧。
Such conflicts of interest will not go unnoticed Mr Mr Trump’s opponents.
這樣的利益衝突不會不被特朗普的對手注意到。
He already faces 75 pending civil law suits, with the first courtroom drama opening in two weeks.
他已面臨75項待決的民事訴訟案，第一場庭審大戲將於兩週後開幕。
The spectre of a rapid public souring on Mr Trump will put a question mark over everything he does.
迅速失去民心這一揮之不去的前景將給特朗普做的一切都打上問號。
How quickly the backlash comes may depend on whether he was serious in promising a big infrastructure bill.
反彈何時出現可能取決於他是否認真兌現大型基礎設施法案。
If well crafted, it could boost middle America.
如果起草得當的話，該法案可能提振美國中產階級。
Most Republicans have strongly opposed similar proposals in the past.
大多數共和黨人過去都曾強烈反對類似的提議。
It also depends on whether Mr Trump keeps his promise to preserve entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security, which most Republicans want to cut.
何時出現反彈還取決於特朗普能否信守承諾，維持一些基本福利，如多數共和黨人希望削減的聯邦醫療保險計劃(Medicare)和社會保障計劃(Social Security)。
Much of Mr Trump’s base relies on government assistance to make ends meet.
特朗普選民基礎中的許多人依賴政府援助來維持生計。
Mr Pence’s mediating role with Capitol Hill will be critical.
彭斯與國會溝通的角色將至關重要。
Will Mr Trump submit to the orthodox conservative agenda? Or will he try to bend Washington to his will?
特朗普會屈服於正統保守的議程嗎？或者，他會嘗試讓華盛頓屈從自己的意志嗎？
The answer is some of both.
答案是兩者都有。
Congress will almost certainly embrace a big tax cut.
國會幾乎肯定會支持大幅減稅計劃。
Passing spending bills will be far harder.
但通過開支法案將困難得多。
Mr Trump is obsessed with his poll numbers.
特朗普癡迷於自己的支持率。
When they fall, he will begin to strain on the leash.
當支持率下降時，他將開始在壓力下奮力一搏。
His Trumpian inner circle will be ready with another agenda.
特朗普的核心圈將爲另一項議程做好準備。
On Saturday, Marine Le Pen, the far right French presidential hopeful, accepted an invitation from Stephen Bannon, head of Mr Trump’s campaign, to work together.
上週六，有望贏得法國總統大選的極右翼人士馬琳.勒龐(Marine Le Pen)接受了特朗普競選活動負責人斯蒂芬.班農(Stephen Bannon)進行合作的邀請。
Mr Bannon, who is tipped as Mr Trump’s White House chief of staff, is a radically different figure to Mr Pence.
被認爲將出任特朗普白宮幕僚長的班農是一個與彭斯截然不同的人物。
It was Mr Bannon who framed Mr Trump’s hardline (Le Pen-iste?) election campaign.
正是班農爲特朗普制定了奉行強硬路線（勒龐式？）的競選策略。
The US and the world should dig in for an unending struggle between the tamed Mr Trump and his dangerous alter ego.
美國和世界應對被馴服的特朗普與其危險的另一面之間無休止的鬥爭嚴陣以待。
Mr Trump, alone, cannot fix it.
特朗普一個人無法搞定。
