特朗普政府爲何劍指WTO
Donald Trump promised to shake up US trade policy and just weeks into his presidency, even traditional allies are nervous.
唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)誓言要重塑美國的貿易政策，上任僅幾周，甚至連美國的傳統盟友都感到緊張不安。He has pulled the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which predecessor Barack Obama agreed with Japan and 10 other Asia-Pacific economies. Talks are under way to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico. The EU has also conceded its own trade talks with the US have been put on ice thanks to a new president who says he would rather negotiate a deal with a departing member, the UK.
他讓美國退出了前總統巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)與日本及另外10個亞太經濟體達成的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)。同時，他正在商談重新談判與加拿大和墨西哥之間的《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)。歐盟(EU)也承認，其與美國的貿易談判已被擱置，原因是美國新總統稱自己寧願與正在退出歐盟的英國達成協議。But the Trump administration’s latest target, the World Trade Organisation, potentially dwarfs all those. If things go wrong it could bring down an institution that, although only two decades old, is a pillar of the economic order the US helped establish after the second world war.
但特朗普政府的最新目標——世界貿易組織(WTO)——或許會讓上述所有行動相形見絀。搞不好的話，特朗普政府可能會讓世貿組織停擺，雖然該機構只有20年曆史，但它構成了二戰後美國協助建立的經濟秩序的支柱。
What is the Trump administration up to?
特朗普政府到底意欲何爲？Incoming officials have begun looking for ways around the WTO’s dispute settlement system, which since being established in 1995 has been the primary means of resolving trade disputes between members — and, advocates say, a significant force in preventing all-out trade wars.
新任官員已開始尋找繞開世貿組織爭端解決機制的方法，該機制自1995年建立以來一直是成員之間解決貿易爭端的主要方式，也是支持者口中防止全面貿易戰的重要力量。In a draft paper circulated this week, administration officials even raised the idea of ignoring WTO rulings they did not like, arguing that “American citizens are subject only to laws and regulations made by the US government — not rulings made by foreign governments or international bodies”.
在上週流傳的一份報告草案中，政府官員甚至提出了準備無視他們不喜歡的世貿組織裁決的想法，辯稱“美國公民只受制於美國政府制定的法律法規，而不受制於外國政府或國際機構作出的裁決”。That sentence was dropped from the final version of a report laying out the Trump administration’s trade agenda that was sent to Congress on Wednesday. But the overall message was still that Donald Trump’s America stands ready to do what it pleases, whether judges at the WTO like it or not.
在上週三發給美國國會、列出特朗普政府貿易方案的最終版報告中，這句話已被刪除。但這給外界的總體感覺仍然是：無論世貿組織的法官喜歡與否，特朗普領導的美國已經準備好自行其是。Why does that matter?
爲什麼美國的態度至關重要？The US was one of the leading forces behind the creation of the WTO and, before that, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade that began codifying global trade rules after the second world war.
美國是推動世貿組織成立、以及之前的“關稅與貿易總協定”（GATT，在二戰後開始制定全球貿易規則）的主導力量之一。The idea of creating such a global trade court was part of the discussions at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference that led to the formation of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But it was not until the 1990s “Uruguay Round” that the WTO — and the dispute settlement system — were created.
創建這樣一個全球貿易法院的理念是1944年佈雷頓森林(Bretton Woods)會議討論的一部分，這次會議催生了國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)。但直至上世紀90年代的“烏拉圭回合”(Uruguay Round)，世貿組織——及相應的爭端解決機制——才成立。Since the WTO began work in 1995, US presidents have remained advocates and sought to bring other countries in — most notably China in 2001. They have also abided by its decisions. For a US president to thumb his nose at the WTO is unprecedented. It would be a hammer blow to the institution if arguably its most important member decided to circumvent it.
自世貿組織1995年開始運行以來，美國曆任總統都是其支持者，而且設法讓其他國家也加入進來——最引人注目的是中國2001年加入世貿組織。他們同時也遵守世貿組織的裁定。對世貿組織嗤之以鼻在歷任美國總統中都是前所未有的。如果可以說是世貿組織最重要成員的美國決定繞開它的話，對該機構將是一次沉重打擊。Were the US to begin imposing punitive tariffs on goods from countries such as China — as Mr Trump threatened during his campaign — it would probably contravene WTO rules and be challenged. If WTO judges found against the US, and Washington then ignored a ruling, it could bring an end to the system, as other countries would probably feel free to do the same.
如果美國開始對來自中國等國的商品徵收懲罰性關稅——如特朗普在競選期間威脅的那樣——美國很可能違反世貿組織規則，並遭到起訴。如果世貿組織法官作出不利於美國的裁決，而華盛頓無視該裁決的話，可能導致這一機制解體，因爲其他國家很可能也會隨意效仿。What does the new administration want to do instead?
美國新政府打算另闢什麼蹊徑？US law contains numerous tools that allow a president to retaliate against other countries for unfair trade practices. The most commonly used are allowed by the WTO and involve anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases that are usually brought by industries. They can result in hefty tariffs being levelled on specific products from specific countries.
美國法律賦予總統很多對進行不公平貿易的國家進行報復的手段。最常用的手段也是世貿組織允許的，包括各行業經常提起的反傾銷、反補貼訴訟案。這些訴訟可以實現對來自特定國家的特定商品徵收高額關稅。But the Trump administration is proposing using blunter instruments that have been used only rarely, if at all, since the WTO was created.
但特朗普政府正在建議動用那些自世貿組織成立以來美國幾乎從未使用過的粗暴手段。Why?
爲什麼？The first reason has to do with two of the Trump administration’s goals, as laid out by Steve Bannon, one of the president’s closest advisers. They are the pursuit of “economic nationalism” and the dismantling of what he calls the “administrative state” that he sees as extending to international institutions.
第一個原因與特朗普政府的兩個目標有關。這兩個目標是由特朗普最親近的顧問之一史蒂夫?班農(Steve Bannon)提出的，一是追求“經濟民族主義”，二是拆解他所謂的“行政國家”——他視之爲國際機構的延伸。Mr Trump’s incoming trade team is heavy on economic nationalists and avowed protectionists, including Peter Navarro, head of a new National Trade Council, and Robert Lighthizer, a former Reagan administration official who as US trade representative will be the administration’s top trade lawyer and has in the past called for a more aggressive approach to the WTO.
特朗普新成立的貿易團隊重用經濟民族主義者和公然自稱的保護主義者，包括彼得?納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)，執掌新成立的國家貿易委員會(National Trade Council)；羅伯特?萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)，前里根(Reagan)政府官員，他將以美國貿易代表的身份成爲特朗普政府的首席貿易律師，此前他曾呼籲對世貿組織採取更強硬的立場。The second is a growing feeling in the US — and particularly among industries such as steel that have been hit hard by competition from China — that the WTO has not worked to its advantage. Of particular concern to some are past WTO rulings rejecting some of the most aggressive US anti-dumping mechanisms.
第二個原因是在美國，尤其在那些因中國競爭而遭受重創的行業，例如鋼鐵業，有種情緒正日益滋長：世貿組織並沒有傾向美國的利益。有些人特別在意世貿組織以往的部分裁決，它們駁回了美國一些最激進的反傾銷機制。“The WTO has only selectively enforced its own rules and it has allowed rampant trade violations by our competitors to go unchecked,” said Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, a longtime critic of US trade policy from the rust belt state of Ohio. “Instead of enforcing a level playing field the WTO has cracked down on US laws meant to crack down on illegal competition?.?.?.?It’s American workers that pay the price.”
民主黨參議員謝羅德?布朗(Sherrod Brown)說：“世貿組織只是有選擇地執行自己的規定，它允許我們的競爭對手肆意違反貿易規則。世貿組織沒有維護公平的競爭環境，而是去打擊那些旨在打擊非法競爭的美國法律……結果付出代價的是美國工人。”布朗來自“鏽帶”俄亥俄州，長期批判美國貿易政策。What comes next? And when?
接下來會發生什麼？什麼時候發生？Roberto Azevêdo, WTO director-general, on Wednesday acknowledged “that the US has a variety of trade concerns, including about the WTO dispute settlement”, saying he was “ready to sit down and discuss these concerns and any others with the trade team in the US whenever they are ready to do so”.
世貿組織總幹事羅伯託?阿澤維多(Roberto Azevêdo)上週三承認“美國有各種貿易擔憂，包括對世貿組織爭端解決機制的擔憂”。他說自己“準備坐下來，與美國貿易團隊討論這些擔憂以及其他任何問題，只要對方準備就緒。”However, a number of key trade players in the Trump administration are not yet in place. Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary, only began work on Tuesday after waiting for weeks for Senate confirmation. Mr Lighthizer has yet to have a confirmation hearing and Senate delays mean it could be April or later before he takes office.
但是，特朗普政府的一些關鍵貿易官員還未就位。商務部長威爾伯?羅斯(Wilbur Ross)上週二才展開工作，之前他等了幾周時間纔得到參議院確認。萊特希澤的確認聽證會還未舉行，參議院的延期意味着他可能要等到四月或更晚才能上任。A likely trigger to a battle between Washington and the WTO would be a finding in Geneva against the US. A number of important cases involving the US and China are working their way through the system. The most important is a Chinese challenge to the refusal by the EU and US to allow it to be treated as a “market economy” under WTO rules, which Beijing filed in December.
假如世貿組織作出一項對美國的不利裁決，很可能成爲觸發華盛頓和世貿組織之間大戰的導火索。世貿組織正在處理涉及美國與中國的一些重要案子，其中最重要的是中國於去年12月，就歐盟和美國拒絕根據世貿組織規則給予中國“市場經濟”地位提出的起訴。WTO cases take time and a final decision in many of those cases could be years away. But the Trump administration is unlikely to wait that long. It could also take unilateral actions before then. This week, that is what it has promised to do.
世貿組織的案子很花時間，其中許多案子的最終裁決可能要好多年。但特朗普政府不太可能等那麼久，它可能在裁決下來之前採取單方面行動。它在上週就承諾要這樣做。
