特朗普有望點燃“動物精神”

The election of Donald Trump has generated lots of startling statistics. Here is another: Ray Dalio, head of the Bridgewater hedge fund, crunched the biographies of the incoming administration and found that the top eight officials have a total of just 55 years of government experience, much of which was in the military.

唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)當選爲美國總統產生了許多令人吃驚的統計數據。這裏還有一個：對衝基金橋水公司(Bridgewater)掌門人雷?戴利奧(Ray Dalio)挖掘了新政府官員的生平，結果發現，8位最高層官員總計只有55年的政府經歷，其中很大一部分還是在軍隊。

That is paltry compared to the past eight presidents. Barack Obama’s top team (president, vice-president, chief of staff, attorney-general, and secretaries of state, commerce, defence and treasury) had 117 years of collective experience; for the presidencies of George W Bush, Bill Clinton and George HW Bush, it was 80, 101 and 79 respectively.

這與過去8位總統相比微不足道。巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的最高團隊（總統、副總統、幕僚長、司法部長、國務卿、商務部長、國防部長和財政部長）總共擁有117年的政府經歷；喬治?W?布什(George W. Bush)、比爾?克林頓(Bill Clinton)和喬治?HW?布什(George HW Bush)總統手下最高層官員的政府經歷總長分別是80年、101年和79年。

Mr Trump’s top team has, however, spent a collective 83 years’ in business. Mr Obama’s administration had just five — yes, five — years.

然而，特朗普的最高團隊總共擁有83年的商界經歷，而奧巴馬政府只有5年的商界經歷，沒錯，就是5年。

So the defining feature of Team Trump is not simply that many are ultra rich; it is that they are C-suite hardened. The junior appointments now being made reinforce that pattern. This week, for example, Mr Trump put the Securities and Exchange Commissionin the hands of Jay Clayton, a private sector lawyer who has never worked in government.

因此，特朗普團隊的標誌性特徵不只是許多人都是超級富翁；而是有很多人經過了企業最高管理職務的歷練。近來任命的較低級職位強化了這種模式。例如，近日特朗普讓傑伊?克萊頓(Jay Clayton)執掌美國證交會(SEC)，而克萊頓是一位從未在政府部門工作過的私營部門律師。

Is this good for American business? One might suggest that some of Mr Trump’s appointments say more about his style than policy substance, in that he prefers to pick people of a similar bent to him, namely government outsiders who hate bureaucratic processes, and stress tangible results.

這有利於美國企業嗎？有人可能認爲，特朗普的一些任命更多地體現了他的風格，而非實質性的政策內容，因爲他傾向於選擇與自己意氣相投的人，即憎惡官僚程序、重視實質成果的政府外部人士。

This could be energising. But it is not clear if a team of “doers” will have a coordinating ideology, let alone the diplomatic skills needed to get anything done with Congress. It is also alarming that the appointment of this C-suite team has not stopped Mr Trump’s populist anti-business potshots.

這可能令人振奮。但目前尚不清楚的是，一個“實幹家”團隊能不能拿出一套協調的意識形態，更不用說推動國會合作所需的外交技能了。同時還令人震驚的是，任命這個由前高管組成的團隊，並沒有阻止特朗普對企業發出民粹主義的抨擊。

This week General Motors was in the crosshairs of Mr Trump’s Twitter feed (for producing cars in Mexico). Previously it was Ford (which has just cancelled an investment in Mexico because of the pressure). Boeing, Apple and Carrier have been targeted too, and others will follow. This is not the normal behaviour of a business-friendly president.

最近，通用汽車(General Motors)因爲在墨西哥生產汽車而成爲特朗普在Twitter上發文攻擊的目標。在它之前是福特(Ford)，該公司在壓力之下取消了一個墨西哥投資項目。波音(Boeing)、蘋果(Apple)和開利(Carrier)也曾是特朗普的攻擊目標，接下來肯定會有其他公司。這不是一個親商的總統的正常行爲。

But business psychology — like Washington politics — can be perverse. And what is striking is that every executive I have spoken to recently is determinedly upbeat. “The thing that has impressed me in recent weeks is the change in the animal spirits among business, small and large,” David Cote, chairman and chief executive of Honeywell, told me this week. “There is no doubt about it — a sense of optimism is there.” That is partly due to Mr Trump’s policy proposals, which feature pro-business measures such as tax reforms, deregulation and investment incentives. But the other factor is Mr Dalio’s data point — those 83 years of C-suite experience.

但是商業心理（與華盛頓政治一樣）可能是逆反的。引人注目的是，最近與我交談的所有高管都堅定地表示樂觀。霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)董事長兼首席執行官高德威(David Cote)上週告訴我：“最近幾周令我印象深刻的事情是企業動物精神的改變，無論大企業還是小企業都是如此。這一點確定無疑——人們感到樂觀。”這在一定程度上歸因於特朗普的政策提議，他提出了稅收改革、放鬆監管和投資激勵等親商的措施。但另一個因素是戴利奧的數據點——特朗普政府高層總計83年的高管經歷。

While nobody knows whether Mr Trump will actually get anything done (nor whether the Federal Reserve will respond to tax cuts by raising rates), business leaders can see the symbolic shift represented by those cabinet picks.

儘管沒有人知道特朗普能否真的做成任何事情（也沒有人知道美聯儲是否會通過加息來回應減稅），但商界領袖們可以看到內閣人選所代表的象徵性轉變。

And while nobody can create economic growth with mere symbolism, symbols can have a powerful psychological impact. “We are about to experience a profound, president-led ideological shift,” Mr Dalio argues. “This could have a much bigger impact on the US economy than one would calculate on the basis of changes in tax and spending policies alone, because it could ignite animal spirits.”

儘管沒有人僅僅靠象徵主義就能創造經濟增長，但象徵可能產生強大的心理影響。戴利奧辯稱：“我們將會經歷一個深遠的、由總統主導的意識形態轉變。它對美國經濟的影響，可能遠遠大於人們僅僅基於稅收和支出政策變動得出的計算結果，因爲它可能點燃動物精神。”

As Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electricrecently observed: “You just hear a lot more optimism: people thinking about [investment] projects that we weren’t thinking about before?.?.?.?The sense that we might modernise our tax code?.?.?.?gets people thinking in a different way.”

正如通用電氣(General Electric)首席執行官傑夫?伊梅爾特(Jeff Immelt)所評論的那樣：“你聽到了更多的樂觀想法：人們正在考慮我們此前沒有考慮過的（投資）項目……有關我們可能推動稅法現代化的感覺……讓人們以不同的方式思考。”

Such optimism might be misplaced. But it cannot be ignored. The key point for investors is to watch what Mr Trump’s C-suite team actually does on the policy front in the coming months — and also to watch what companies such as GE do with their investment plans.

此類樂觀情緒可能是錯位的，但不能忽視它。對投資者來說，關鍵是觀察特朗普的前高管團隊未來幾個月在政策方面做什麼，同時也要觀察通用電氣等公司在投資計劃上有什麼動作。

That is not just because of Mr Trump’s populist tweets. In economic terms bullying Ford into keeping one car plant in America is almost irrelevant. But if American companies are getting ready to unleash more investment, as Mr Immelt says, this could be truly significant; particularly given that capital expenditure has been so disappointingly weak in recent years.

這不只是因爲特朗普的民粹主義推文。在經濟意義上，脅迫福特在美國保留一家汽車廠幾乎是無關緊要的。但如果美國企業像伊梅爾特所說的那樣準備加大投資，這可能真的意義重大，尤其是考慮到最近幾年的資本支出疲弱得令人失望。

All eyes, then, on the next set of capex statistics; and on the corporate plans that the real C-suite executives will release when they issue their earnings later this month — just as Mr Trump’s C-suite cabinet is being sworn in.

因此，所有人都會關注下一輪的資本支出統計數據，以及真正的企業高管們在本月晚些時候發佈財報時公佈的企業計劃——特朗普的前高管內閣也將在那時宣誓就職。