特朗普總統困擾世界精英
The world’s economic elite spent this week invoking fears of protectionism and the existential crisis facing globalisation while avoiding any mention of Donald Trump by name.
世界經濟精英本週紛紛提到他們對保護主義、對全球化面臨存亡危機的恐懼，同時避免直接提到唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的名字。
But the US presidential candidate and his anti-establishment politics have loomed large at this week’s annual meetings in Washington of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. He has been a sort of Voldemort for the global economic order — like the villain in Harry Potter, his name is spoken only in hushed tones and behind closed doors.
但這位美國總統候選人及其反體制的政見給本週在華盛頓舉行的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)年會蒙上陰影。對全球經濟秩序而言，他就像是《哈利波特》(Harry Potter)中的反派伏地魔(Voldemort)——與會者只在非公開場合壓低嗓音說出他的名字。
“It is terrifying,” said one senior official of the prospect of a Trump victory in the November 8 election before laying out a scenario in which a President Trump would lead the US into a default on its debts, the collapse of the dollar and US treasuries as haven assets and the tumbling of the global economy into a 1930s-like crisis.
“這是可怕的，”一名高級官員在談到特朗普在11月8日的美國大選中勝出的前景時表示。這名官員接着描述了這樣的情景：特朗普總統領導的美國將在債務上違約，導致美元崩盤，美國國債不再是避風港資產，全球經濟急轉直下，重演上世紀30年代的大蕭條危機。
Mr Trump has raised the possibility of trying to renegotiate the terms of the US sovereign debt much as he did repeatedly with his own business debts as a property developer. He also has proposed imposing punitive tariffs on imports from China and Mexico and ripping up existing US trade pacts.
特朗普曾提出嘗試重新談判美國主權債務條款的可能性，就像他作爲房地產開發商多次對自己的商業債務所做的那樣。他還提議對來自中國和墨西哥的進口徵收懲罰性關稅，並撕毀美國現有的貿易協定。
Invoking one of the founding fathers of the international system, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, told the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors that the challenge “lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones”.
IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在對世界各國財長和央行行長髮表講話時，援引國際體系創始人之一約翰•梅納德•凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的話表示，當前的挑戰“與其說在於發展新的思想，不如說在於逃離舊的觀念”。
“If our founders were here today, they would surely be concerned. They shared a conviction that trade and openness are beneficial to those who embrace them,” she said. “Now, those principles are facing their biggest test in decades.”
“如果我們的創始人今天在這裏，他們肯定會擔憂。他們共有的一個信念是，貿易和開放造福於擁抱它們的所有人，”她說。“現在，這些原則面臨着幾十年來最大的考驗。”
Mr Trump’s name may not have appeared in the voluminous economic reports published this week, but he was clearly on the authors’ minds.
特朗普的名字也許沒有出現在本週發表的大量經濟報告中，但他顯然讓作者們擔心。
The IMF labelled political risks and the uncertainty bred by the US election and the UK’s decision to leave the EU and as the biggest immediate concerns facing the global economy.
IMF把美國大選和英國決定退歐所滋生的政治風險和不確定性列爲全球經濟面臨的最大迫切問題。
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the fund included a box outlining the potential costs of raising tariffs and other trade barriers. It read like an attempt to dissuade a presidential aspirant considering a protectionist path.
IMF在其最新《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)中列舉了提高關稅和其他貿易壁壘的潛在代價。其措辭就像是在試圖勸阻一名總統候選人考慮保護主義道路。
“Once a tariff has been imposed on a country’s exports, it is in that country’s best interest to retaliate, and when it does, both countries end up worse off,” IMF economists wrote.
“一旦對某個國家的出口實施了關稅，對那個國家來說，最佳利益就在於報復，而當它那麼做時，兩個國家都會得不償失，”IMF的經濟學家們寫道。
It is not just angst over Mr Trump. There are similar concerns over Brexit and the rise of populist parties elsewhere in Europe. All present their own threats to the advance of the US-led path of economic liberalisation pursued since Keynes and his peers gathered at Bretton Woods in 1944.
各方並不只對特朗普感到焦慮，對於英國退歐和歐洲其他國家民粹主義政黨興起也有類似的擔憂。對於自1944年凱恩斯和其他人在佈雷頓森林開會以來由美國領頭的經濟自由化進程，這一切都構成各自的威脅。
“In my lifetime I cannot remember anything like the scepticism about these values that we see today,” said Suma Chakrabarti, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“在我一生中，我不記得看到過我們當今見到的對這些價值觀的懷疑。”歐洲復興開發銀行(EBRD)總裁蘇馬•查克拉巴蒂(Suma Chakrabarti)表示。
There was much discussion this week about the underlying causes of that scepticism — low growth, stagnant wages and other scars of the 2008 global financial crisis — together with calls for governments to do more to ensure the benefits of globalisation are distributed more widely.
本週各方圍繞這種懷疑的根本原因——低增長、薪資停滯以及2008年全球金融危機造成的其他傷痕——展開了很多討論，還有代表呼籲各國政府採取更多行動確保全球化的果實得到更廣泛的分配。
Lou Jiwei, China’s finance minister, said yesterday the current “political risks” would in the immediate future lead only to “superficial changes” for the global economy.
中國財政部長樓繼偉昨日表示，目前的“政治風險”在不久的將來只會導致全球經濟出現“表面變化”。
But underlying them was a deeper trend of “deglobalisation”.
他稱，在這種表面下隱藏着更深層的“去全球化”趨勢。
