華爾街將成爲特朗普上臺的贏家

In a ranking of global financial centres last month, published by Z/Yen, London topped the think-tank’s league, a whisker above New York.

在智庫Z/Yen上月公佈的全球金融中心排行榜中，倫敦位居榜首，略微領先於紐約。

Little surprise there: London has led several league tables in recent years.

這沒有什麼奇怪的：近些年，倫敦一直在多項類似榜單上佔據榜首。

But when Z/Yen publishes its index in a couple of years’ time — in a Trumpian world — there is a good chance those rankings will have changed.

但當Z/Yen幾年後（在特朗普時代）發佈這一排行榜時，排名順序很可能將已發生改變。

For one point about last week’s US presidential election result is that Donald Trump’s policies are likely to make New York more attractive as a financial centre.

美國大選結果的前景之一是，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的政策可能會讓紐約成爲更有吸引力的金融中心。

And that could make London a relative loser — unless British authorities are ready to fight back.

這可能讓倫敦成爲相對的輸家——除非英國當局做好還擊的準備。

Why? The reason is not necessarily any deliberate plan Mr Trump holds for Wall Street; he does not seem to have one.

爲何如此？原因不一定是他有任何刻意支持華爾街的計劃；他似乎沒有這樣的計劃。

He barely mentioned the financial sector on the campaign trail — and most bankers ignored him back.

他在競選過程中幾乎沒有提到過金融行業——反過來，大多數銀行家也忽略了他。

Indeed, the industry donated only $737,000 to him this year, compared with $78m for Hillary Clinton and $33m for Jeb Bush.

實際上，今年金融業對他的捐款僅爲73.7萬美元，對希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和傑布.布什(Jeb Bush)的捐款則分別爲7800萬美元和3300萬美元。

But what could raise New York’s status is a confluence of four crucial factors.

但是，可能提高紐約地位的是四個關鍵因素的共同作用。

The first is obvious: London’s future is being undermined by uncertainties unleashed by Brexit.

第一個是顯而易見的：英國脫歐引發的不確定性將損及倫敦的未來。

In public, international bankers insist London remains highly attractive.

在公開場合，國際銀行家們堅稱，倫敦仍具有很大的吸引力。

This week, for example, Jes Staley, Barclays chief executive, pointed to its gravitational pull.

比如在最近，巴克萊(Barclays)首席執行官傑斯.斯特利(Jes Staley)指出了倫敦的引力。

But in private, senior bankers are preparing to move at least some of their activities when Brexit hits.

但在私下裏，資深銀行家們正準備在英國正式脫歐時遷走至少部分業務。

And, while continental European centres such as Frankfurt and Paris are pitching to grab business, many senior bankers say America looks more attractive, given its infrastructure, talent pool and flexible labour laws.

此外，儘管法蘭克福和巴黎等歐洲大陸的金融中心正在招攬業務，但許多資深銀行家表示，鑑於美國的基礎設施、人才庫和靈活的勞動法規，它看來吸引力更大。

It is pretty unlikely anything like what we call ‘London’ could be replicated in the foreseeable future in one place in the EU, Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor of the Bank of England, told the House of Lords last month.

在可以預見的未來，歐盟(EU)某個地方複製出我們所稱的‘倫敦’的可能性很低，英國央行副行長喬恩.坎裏夫(Jon Cunliffe)上月在英國國會上院(House of Lords)表示。

But it already exists in New York.

但是，紐約已具備倫敦的特點。

Or as Mark Boleat, policy chairman of the City of London Corporation, observes: The biggest beneficiary of any job losses in the UK will be New York.

或者，正如倫敦金融城管理當局(City of London Corporation)政策主席包墨凱(Mark Boleat)所評述：只要英國出現崗位流失，紐約就將成爲最大受益者。

However, Brexit is not the only factor here; a second is the regulatory and political climate.

然而，脫歐並非唯一因素；第二個是監管和政治環境。

A decade ago Michael Bloomberg, then New York mayor, commissioned a McKinsey report that concluded London was grabbing business from New York because it had a more welcoming regulatory climate.

十年前，時任紐約市長邁克爾.布隆伯格(Michael Bloomberg)委託麥肯錫(McKinsey)做了一份報告，報告稱，由於監管環境更友好，倫敦正從紐約那裏搶走業務。

No longer.

如今情況不同了。

Since the 2008 crisis British regulators have, quite rightly, implemented reform.

自從2008年危機以來，英國監管機構已非常正確地執行了改革。

Bank levies have been imposed amid a political backlash.

銀行稅在政治反彈中出臺了。

Of course, regulation has been tightened in America too; look at the hefty Dodd-Frank rules.

當然，美國的監管也收緊了；看看長篇累牘的《多德-弗蘭克法》(Dodd-Frank)吧。

But in America the bank-bashing has waned.

但在美國，對銀行的抨擊已逐漸消失了。

And now Mr Trump’s policy team are not only muttering about rolling back some reforms; they are also considering bringing bankers into the administration.

現在，特朗普政策團隊不但正在私下討論着撤銷部分改革措施，而且也在考慮讓銀行家進入政府任職。

Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, has been mooted as possible Treasury secretary.

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席執行官傑米.戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)已成爲潛在財長的討論人選。

The symbolism is profound.

其中的象徵意義非常深遠。

A third factor is the health of banks.

第三個因素是銀行的健康狀況。

In recent years American banks have cleaned up their balance sheets and recapitalised themselves.

近年來，美國的銀行已清理了資產負債表，並注入了新資本。

The Europeans have lagged behind, which means American banks are resurgent on the world stage.

歐洲同行已落在後面，這意味着，美國的銀行在世界舞臺上重新崛起了。

This is likely to be magnified if Mr Trump loosens regulations.

如果特朗普放松管制，這一點還可能放大。

If the Federal Reserve raises rates next month — and Janet Yellen, Fed chair, hinted on Thursday that it would — that would bolster US banks’ fee income.

如果美聯儲(Fed)下月加息——美聯儲主席珍妮特.耶倫(Janet Yellen)上週四暗示將加息——那將提振美國銀行業的費用收入。

The US economy is likely to grow, partly as a result of Mr Trump’s reflation plans, which could in itself provide a fourth supportive factor.

部分得益於特朗普的刺激計劃，美國經濟可能會增長。該計劃本身可能產生第四個支撐因素。

After all, rising business confidence and activity typically boosts demand for financial services.

畢竟，企業信心增強、企業活動增多通常會增加對於金融服務的需求。

In Europe, by contrast, economic gloom and intractable political splits have undermined confidence.

形成對照的是，在歐洲，經濟低迷和頑固的政治分裂已損害了信心。

Anything which can move to the US in the coming years will move — the US is ultimately going to be a huge beneficiary, Gary Cohn, Goldman Sachs president, said this week.

任何可以遷到美國的業務，都會在未來幾年裏遷到美國——美國最終將成爲很大的受益者，高盛(Goldman Sachs)總裁蓋瑞.柯恩(Gary Cohn)上週說。

As far as [financial and business] investment in Europe is concerned, that is going to be on hold.

至於在歐洲的（金融和商業）投資，將會暫緩。

Of course, some European observers will dismiss this as a self-interested sales pitch.

當然，有些歐洲觀察者將對此不予理會，認爲這是自利的推銷說辭。

If Trumpian policies spark US social unrest or geopolitical uncertainty, or if Mr Trump unleashes a debt binge that goes bust, that will not create stability.

如果特朗普的政策引發美國社會動盪或地緣政治方面的不確定性，或者如果特朗普釋放出的債務泡沫後來破滅的話，這將不會帶來穩定。

But, while those risks are real, the crucial point now is this: whatever Europeans think of Mr Trump, they need to recognise that animal spirits are rising in New York, and this is likely to boost finance and the standing of Wall Street.

但是，儘管這些風險是實實在在的，如今的關鍵點是：無論歐洲人如何看待特朗普，他們都需要承認，在紐約，動物精神正在上升，這可能會提振華爾街的金融業和地位。

If London wants to fight back, the British authorities need to find a way to unleash some animal spirits of their own.

如果倫敦想要回擊，那麼英國當局需要找到一條釋放自己的動物精神的途徑。

Bickering about Brexit is not a good place to start.

爲英國脫歐而爭吵不是好的起點。