BIS:全球經濟陷入"惡性循環"

The global economy is experiencing a "vicious cycle" in which the efforts of governments, households, businesses and the financial sector to reduce their debts are worsening each others' prospects, the bank for International Settlements has warned.

國際清算銀行(BIS)警告，全球經濟正處於"惡性循環"之中，各國政府、家庭、企業和金融業削減債務的努力正在導致彼此的前景不斷惡化。

Stephen Cecchetti, chief economist of the BIS–often referred to as the bank for central banks–said five years after the financial crisis engulfed the global economy, the world appears no closer to finding a sustainable economic Model.

BIS首席經濟學家史蒂芬•切凱蒂(Stephen Cecchetti)表示，自從5年前金融危機席捲了全球經濟，世界至今依然茫無頭緒，找不到一種可持續的經濟模式。BIS常被稱作"央行的央行"。

Not until regulators get to grips with the banking system's woes by forcing banks to recognise losses, take write-offs and raise capital can the path to sustainable growth begin, he said.

切凱蒂表示，在各國監管部門迫使銀行承擔損失、進行資產減記並增資，從而化解銀行體系的困境之後，全球經濟纔有望踏上可持續的增長道路。

"The revitalisation of the banks and the moderation of the financial industry will end this destructive interaction with the other sectors and clear the way for the next steps–fiscal consolidation and the deleveraging of the private, non-financial sector," Mr Cecchetti said, unveiling the bank's 2012 annual report. "Only then can we return to a balanced growth path."

切凱蒂在公佈BIS 2012年度報告時表示："當銀行恢復元氣、金融業企穩時，該行業與其他部門之間具有破壞性的相互作用就會終止，這將爲接下來的事情——財政鞏固以及私人非金融行業的去槓桿化——掃清道路。"

The report underscores the challenges facing governments, particularly in advanced economies, as they struggle to contain spending and recoup revenue lost as output collapses.

報告中強調了各國政府面臨的挑戰，尤其是發達經濟體的政府，它們正在努力控制開支，彌補由於產出下降導致的稅收減少。

Indeed, the study says the budgets of most advanced economies, excluding interest payments, "would need 20 consecutive years of surpluses exceeding 2 per cent of gross domestic product–starting now–just to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio back to its pre-crisis level".

報告指出，在大多數發達經濟體，"要使債務與GDP比率恢復到危機前的水平，基本預算盈餘（不計利息支出）佔GDP的比率需要連續20年保持在2%以上的水平"。

Moreover, monetary policy has been bearing the brunt of efforts to adjust. These cannot go on forever and carry their own risks as economies become dependent on ultra-low interest rates, the BIS says.

此外，貨幣政策一直受到調整努力的極大影響。BIS指出，這種情況不會永遠持續下去，而且，隨着各國經濟日漸依賴於超低利率，這種做法本身就帶有風險。

"There are very clear limits to what central banks can do," Mr Cecchetti said, summing up the annual report. "They cannot repair balance sheets. They cannot increase productivity. And they cannot put policy on a sustainable path."

切凱蒂在概述年度報告時表示："各國央行能做的事十分有限，它們無法修補資產負債表，它們無法提高生產率，它們也無法讓政策走上可持續的道路。"

Every additional year that policy makers fail to get to grips with long-term fiscal consolidation makes the recovery period even longer, he warned.

他警告說，除非政策制定者能夠解決長期財政鞏固的問題，否則復甦就會遙遙無期。

While the risks are greatest for developed economies–especially Europe–the BIS notes that risks are rising for emerging economies, particularly those that have experienced rapid growth through exports to more industrialised neighbours. These include Russia, India and Thailand.

發達經濟體——尤其是歐洲——面臨的風險最大，不過BIS也指出，新興經濟體面臨的風險正在上升，特別是那些通過向工業化程度更高的鄰近國家出口而實現快速增長的國家，如俄羅斯、印度和泰國。