梳理特朗普時代的美元前景
The only reliable guide to the dollar’s value in the wake of Donald Trump’s electoral victory is the wisdom of legendary investor Bernard Baruch about the stock market: it will fluctuate.
在唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統後，對美元價值的唯一可靠指引是傳奇投資者伯納德.巴魯克(Bernard Baruch)有關股市的至理名言：它將波動。
If the prospects for the US economy have never been so uncertain, then the prospects for the dollar similarly have never been so uncertain.
如果說美國經濟的前景從未如此不確定過，那麼美元的前景也同樣從未如此不確定過。
Still, we can attempt to make sense of this scenario from three angles.
話雖如此，我們可以嘗試從3個視角來展望這種前景。
A first is from the vantage point of US fiscal and monetary policies.
首先是從美國財政和貨幣政策的角度來看。
One thing we know is that a more expansionary fiscal policy is coming.
我們知道，更具擴張性的財政政策即將出臺。
It may take the form of tax cuts for the wealthy and tax credits for investors; or it may be a more balanced programme, including a significant rise in infrastructure spending.
它可能會採取對富人減稅、對投資者實行稅收減免的形式；或者可能是一種更爲平衡的計劃，包括顯著增加基礎設施支出。
Either way, growth and inflation are likely to accelerate, and the US Federal Reserve will respond by raising interest rates sooner and faster.
在這兩種情形下，增長和通脹都可能會加速，美聯儲(Fed)將更早、更快地通過加息來做出迴應。
We know from the Reagan era that a mix of loose fiscal and tight monetary policies makes for a strong dollar.
我們從里根時代的經驗得知，寬鬆財政政策和緊縮貨幣政策的組合會帶來強勁美元。
No surprise, then, that investors are bidding up the greenback.
因此，難怪投資者正在擡高美元匯率。
But we also know that doubts about debt sustainability can lead those investors to think twice.
但我們還知道，圍繞債務可持續性的疑慮可能促使投資者三思。
Large, unfunded tax cuts will heighten their doubts.
大規模且沒有資金着落的減稅將加重他們的疑慮。
Questions about fiscal sustainability will be particularly troubling to investors in US Treasury bonds, given Mr Trump’s offhand comments about renegotiating the debt.
鑑於特朗普隨口發表的有關重新談判債務的言論，有關財政可持續性的疑問將尤其令美國國債投資者不安。
Thus the macroeconomic policy mix should be dollar supportive in the short run but dollar subversive in the longer term.
因此，宏觀經濟政策組合短期內將支撐美元，但長期而言將損害美元。
If markets are myopic, then the dollar will continue to strengthen for the moment.
如果市場是短視的，那麼眼下美元將繼續升值。
But if investors look forward, that moment will be relatively brief.
但如果投資者展望更遙遠的未來，這一時刻將相對短暫。
Anyone care to bet on its duration?
有人願意押注於美元升值將持續多久嗎？
A second perspective flows from the likelihood that the new administration will adopt protectionist policies.
第二個視角源於新一屆行政當局可能會採取保護主義政策。
Taxing and otherwise discouraging imports will strengthen the US trade accounts, and a smaller trade deficit will be dollar positive.
對進口徵收關稅，或者以其他方式限制進口，將強化美國的貿易賬戶，而較小的貿易逆差將對美元有利。
The increased price of imports will translate into modestly higher inflation, again encouraging the Fed to raise interest rates sooner and enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
進口價格上漲將轉化爲通脹溫和上揚，同樣鼓勵美聯儲更早加息，並增強美元計價資產的吸引力。
But those same trade policies run the risk of provoking foreign retaliation, with precisely the opposite effect.
但同樣的貿易政策有着激起外國報復的風險，而其影響將恰恰相反。
New tariffs will also reduce the efficiency of US production by disrupting global supply chains.
新的關稅還將通過破壞全球供應鏈來降低美國生產的效率。
If the result is slower growth, investing in the US and the dollar will be less attractive.
如果結果是增長放緩，那麼投資美國和美元的吸引力將下降。
Hence the new administration’s trade policies are likely to be dollar positive in the short run and dollar negative in the longer term.
因此，新一屆行政當局的貿易政策很可能會在短期內有利於美元，但較長期而言將對美元不利。
A third perspective is the dollar’s haven status.
第三個視角是美元的避險地位。
The greenback benefits from uncertainty.
美元受益於不確定性。
Even when the US is the source of the problem, its currency benefits.
即便美國是不確定性的來源，美元也會受益。
The US Treasury market is the most liquid financial market in the world, and there is nothing investors value more in a crisis than liquidity.
美國國債市場是全球流動性最強的金融市場，在危機期間，投資者最看重流動性。
Thus some will argue that heightened uncertainty from Mr Trump’s accession to power will benefit the dollar.
因此，一些人會辯稱，特朗普上臺所造成的不確定性上升將有利於美元。
This view fails to appreciate the deeper roots of haven status.
這種觀點未能認識到避險地位的更深層次根源。
These go beyond deep and liquid markets.
它不只是深度大、流動性強的市場。
The policies of the central bank issuing the currency and the government standing behind it must also be sound and stable.
發行貨幣的央行的政策，以及央行背後的政府，也必須穩健且穩定。
A currency is regarded as a haven only if the country issuing it is geopolitically secure.
一種貨幣只有在發行國地緣政治安全的情況下才會被視爲避險資產。
It must have a strong military but it also must have strong alliances.
它必須擁有強大的軍隊，還必須擁有強大的同盟。
The pound was the haven currency before the dollar because Britannia ruled the waves and because Britain successfully constructed a web of geopolitical alliances.
在美元之前，英鎊曾是一種避險貨幣，因爲大不列顛統治着洶涌的海洋，也因爲英國成功構建了一個地緣政治同盟之網。
So whether Mr Trump adopts policies that heighten trade tension with China, scales back US foreign commitments and turns his back on Nato will tell the tale.
因此，很多事態將說明問題，包括特朗普會不會採取加劇美中貿易緊張的政策，會不會縮減美國的海外承諾，甚至拋棄北約(Nato)。
The fate of the dollar, and potentially much more, will turn on the answer.
美元的命運，可能還有其他很多事情的命運，將取決於這些方面的答案。
