黨代會暴露特朗普的缺陷

The main role of a presidential convention nowadays is to introduce the nominee to the US public. Donald Trump needs no introduction. With the exception of Ronald Reagan, who had been familiar to television viewers for decades, no previous nominee could match the reality TV star’s name recognition. The other goal is to ensure the public likes what it sees. Does Mr Trump possess the temperament to sit atop America’s nuclear chain of command? Does he have the character to unify a polarised nation? On both counts Mr Trump has yet to quell the doubts he generated in an unusually vicious primary campaign. It was one thing to launch a successful hostile takeover of America’s Grand Old Party. It is quite another to persuade the general electorate he has the ability to lead the nation. So far Mr Trump has shown few signs of grasping the enormousness of that challenge.

美國政黨全國提名代表大會的主要作用是向美國民衆介紹本黨提名的總統候選人。唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)不需要介紹。除了電視觀衆熟悉了幾十年的羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)以外，之前沒有哪位候選人可以匹敵這位真人秀明星的知名度。黨代會的另一個目的是確保公衆喜歡他們所看到的。特朗普的脾氣能夠擔當美國核指揮鏈的最高指揮官嗎？他具有將這個兩極分化的國家團結到一起的品質嗎？在這兩方面，特朗普都尚未平息他在異常激烈的初選競選中招來的疑慮。對美國共和黨發起一場成功的“惡意收購”是一回事，說服全美選民他有能力領導這個國家則完全是另一回事。迄今爲止，特朗普未表現出多少跡象，證明他理解這項挑戰的艱鉅性。

Running a campaign is also a test of competence. Mr Trump was able to wing it through the primaries with little more than a Twitter account and his personal jet. But his threadbare operation has been exposed under the Klieg lights of a national convention. Melania Trump, the prospective first lady, derailed the show on the first night when she was caught plagiarising paragraphs from Michelle Obama’s 2008 convention speech. Even the most basic software test would have revealed the blunder. Her miscue followed noisy floor protests from “Never Trump” forces that Mr Trump’s team unwisely tried to silence. The second night was little better. Billed as “Make America work again”, few of the speakers even mentioned the US economy. Instead, Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, dominated the second day’s prime time with an invective-laden speech on Hillary Clinton’s alleged criminality. “Guilty!” roared the delegates at Mr Christie’s invitation. “Lock her up,” it chanted. Such demagoguery is unlikely to capture the middle ground.

競選運作也是對能力的考驗。特朗普能夠僅僅憑藉Twitter賬戶及其私人噴氣式飛機順利通過初選。但是他殘破的競選運作已經暴露在全國代表大會的強光下。有望成爲未來第一夫人的梅拉尼婭•特朗普(Melania Trump)第一晚亮相便掉了鏈子，被發現部分演講段落抄襲了米歇爾•奧巴馬(Michelle Obama)在2008年民主黨全國代表大會上的演講。只需最基本的軟件測試就能發現這一錯誤。在她犯錯前，來自“永遠不要特朗普”(Never Trump)運動的一羣人在現場吵鬧地抗議，而特朗普的團隊不明智地試圖使其安靜。黨代會第二晚也沒有好到哪去。儘管這一晚的主題是“讓美國再次擴大就業(Make America work again)”，但是幾乎沒有哪位發言人提到美國經濟。相反，新澤西州長克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)就希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)的所謂罪行展開的充滿謾罵的演講，佔據了第二天的黃金時間。“有罪！”克里斯蒂請來的代表們咆哮着；“把她關押起來，”他們反覆高喊着。這樣的煽動行爲不太可能爭取到中間選民的支持。

Then there is the goal of unifying the party. Mr Trump was never likely to persuade George HW Bush, or George W Bush, to appear at his coronation. He had disparaged the Bush family too much on his path to victory. However, he has made little obvious effort to befriend the few big names he did persuade to turn up in Cleveland. Chief among these was Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, whose endorsement of Mr Trump was a case study of damning with faint praise. Mr Ryan only mentioned Mr Trump’s name twice in his keynote address, the chief thrust of which was to urge Republicans to treat every American with respect, regardless of colour, religion or class. The ostensible target of Mr Ryan’s message was the Democratic party; nobody who heard it could have misunderstood that his words were aimed squarely at Mr Trump. If the latter was listening, he should take Mr Ryan’s advice at face value. Primaries are won at the extremes. General elections are still fought in the middle. It will be almost impossible for Mr Trump to win the White House on the strength of angry white voters alone.

接着還有團結共和黨的目標。特朗普根本沒有可能勸服老布什(George HW Bush)或者小布什(George W Bush)出席他的“加冕”儀式。一路走來，他對布什家族詆譭得太厲害了。然而，他也沒有做出什麼明顯的努力去親善那幾位被他勸服在克利夫蘭露面的重要人物。其中包括衆議院議長保羅•瑞安(Paul Ryan)，他對特朗普的背書構成一個明褒暗貶的經典案例。瑞安在他的主旨講話中僅兩次提到特朗普的名字，講話的主旨是敦促共和黨人尊重每名美國人，不管對方是什麼膚色、信奉何種宗教或屬於哪個階層。瑞安這番講話表面上是針對民主黨，然而所有聽者都不可能誤解，其實他的話恰恰是針對特朗普的。如果特朗普當時也在聽瑞安講話，他應該對瑞安的建議照單全收。特朗普憑藉走極端贏得了初選。大選的戰場仍然在中間地帶。特朗普若想僅僅依靠憤怒的白人選民的力量入主白宮，幾乎是不可能的。

The next few days will be critical. On Thursday night Mr Trump will address the nation when he accepts the nomination. The temptation will be to stick with the formula that has worked. That would be a mistake. Mr Trump is certainly fortunate in his opponent. So too is Mrs Clinton. The 2016 election is unique in that each party’s nominee is mistrusted by a majority of the US electorate. No one has ever made it to the White House with negative trust numbers. The way to earn the public’s faith is to convince doubters you have a competent plan to govern. Now would be a good time for Mr Trump to start.

未來幾天將十分關鍵。週四晚，特朗普接受共和黨正式提名時，將對全國民衆發表講話。他將很想繼續使用原來管用的方法——那將鑄成錯誤。當然，有希拉里做對手，特朗普是幸運的；反過來也一樣。2016年美國大選的獨特之處，在於每個政黨的候選人都得不到大多數美國選民的信任。從未有人在不信任比例超過一半的情況下問鼎白宮。贏得公衆信任的途徑，在於讓懷疑者相信，你有一份出色的治理方案。特朗普眼下最好開始朝這個方向努力。