中國經濟必須審慎推進
China in 2012: fixated on stability as the pressures mount without and within.
History will look back on 2012 as the year when China anointed its "fifth generation" of leaders and shifted to a slower growth trajectory, writes Yukon Huang. This transition will take place against a backdrop of daunting internal challenges — increasing social unrest, widening income disparities and both ecological and man-made disasters — and of escalating external tensions, stemming from America's "pivot" to Asia and simmering regional worries about China's economic rise.
歷史會這樣回首2012年：這一年，中國“第五代”領導層亮相，同時中國經濟轉向較低速增長的軌道。這種轉變發生的背景，將是一系列令人畏懼的國內挑戰——不斷增加的社會不安定，不斷擴大的收入差距，以及生態和人爲的災難——加上不斷升級的外部緊張，這源於美國重新轉向亞洲，同時亞太鄰國對中國的經濟崛起越來越感到憂慮。
While the political system will be fixated on preserving stability as new leaders take the helm, reduced economic flexibility could thwart Beijing's intentions to do so.
在新的領導層剛剛接手之際，中國的政治體制會繼續將注意力放在保持穩定上，但經濟彈性的降低，可能挫敗北京方面在這方面的意圖。
In truth, slower growth of about 8 per cent could be better for China and for the world. More environmentally sustainable and equitable outcomes would ease popular concerns and higher consumption would ease tensions over global trade.
其實，中國經濟增速放緩至8%左右，對中國乃至世界都是一件好事。更具環境可持續性、更加公平的局面，將緩解社會憂慮，而更高的消費將緩解全球貿易緊張。
But many foresee an economic collapse, arguing that a prolonged eurozone crisis coupled with a property bubble could render vast swaths of Chinese industry unprofitable. This would reveal hidden financial vulnerabilities and feed a downward spiral. Others believe that Beijing has ample resources to avoid a crisis, but argue that, with a growth model based on infrastructure and land sales, and with exchange and interest rates rigidly controlled, it may not have all the necessary tools at its disposal.
但許多人預測將會出現經濟崩盤，他們認爲，曠日持久的歐元區危機加上房地產泡沫，將使相當大一部分中國工業失去盈利能力。這將暴露出各種隱藏的金融脆弱性，推動形成一場螺旋式下降。其他人認爲，北京方面有充足的資源可以避免一場危機，不過他們指出，由於中國的增長模式依賴於基建和土地出售，且匯率和利率受到僵硬控制，它也許並沒有所有必要工具。
Domestically, an increasingly active middle class is generating pressure for more accountable governance. Mounting inequalities have nurtured a sense of injustice; 200m migrant workers remain second-class citizens and corruption is worsening. Tackling these problems is urgent, but China's economic successes have fostered an unwarranted self-confidence. Instead, motivated by the Arab spring, the system has moved aggressively to contain any social discontent that might spark more politically sensitive movements.
就國內而言，日益活躍的中產階層正形成壓力，要求得到問責制度更健全的治理。愈演愈烈的不平等滋生了一種不公正感；兩億農民工仍然受到二等公民的待遇，腐敗也有增無減。對付這些問題的任務十分緊迫，但中國的經濟成就助長了一種無端的自信。於是，在阿拉伯之春的刺激下，中國的體制採取激進舉措，壓制可能引發政治敏感運動的任何社會不滿。
China's economic prowess is also seen by outsiders as having stimulated nationalism in a generation removed from the Cultural Revolution. Beijing's belligerent responses to overlapping maritime claims have heightened worries about its security objectives in a region already wary of its economic clout. This is one factor in Japan's decision to relax its ban on weapons exports; to China's dismay, it has also driven its neighbours to support a stronger US presence in Asia and has complicated regional trade integration.
在外界看來，中國的經濟實力還在從未經歷文化大革命的年輕一代中，激發起民族主義情緒。北京方面在對待海上主權爭議時的強硬迴應，在本已對中國經濟實力產生戒心的亞太區加劇了各方對中國軍事目標的擔心。這也是促使日本決定放鬆武器出口禁令的原因之一；令中國沮喪的是，其行爲還推動鄰國支持美國加強自己在亞洲的存在，並使得地區貿易一體化變得複雜。
The potential for conflict will force China and the US to redefine their roles in a shifting environment that neither is comfortable with. Tensions will be aggravated by anti-China sentiment during the American elections. Asian countries are in a position to delineate the boundaries of influence for these two powers but, given their varied interests, alliances will shift depending on individual concerns.
爆發衝突的潛在可能性，將迫使中國和美國在不斷變幻的環境中重新定義各自的角色，雙方都對這種環境感到不安。美國大選期間的反華情緒將使緊張氣氛加劇。亞洲國家將勾勒出這兩個大國的影響力範圍，但考慮到各國的利益各有不同，取決於各自的具體關切，聯盟的構成也將變化。
China must walk a narrow line at a time when its outgoing leadership is reluctant to take any far-sighted decisions.
在即將卸任的中國領導層不願做出任何有遠見的決定時，中國必須沿着一條狹窄的道路審慎推進。
The writer is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a former World Bank country director for China. Read other predictions for the world economy, politics and finance in 2012 at
本文作者爲卡內基國際和平基金會(Carnegie Endowment)高級研究員、世界銀行(World Bank)中國業務局前局長，譯者/何黎
