世界難以擺脫特朗普烙印

The news that Donald Trump has in effectsecured the Republican party’s nomination for the US presidency took me back toEurope in 2002. Back then it was a huge shock when Jean-Marie Le Pen, afar-right candidate, made it through to the last two in the French presidentialelection. I remember going to the EU press room in Brussels the morning afterMr Le Pen’s initial success, and witnessing the horror and shame of my Frenchcolleagues.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)實質上鎖定了美國共和黨總統候選人提名的消息，令我回想起了2002年的歐洲。當時，極右翼候選人讓-馬裏•勒龐(Jean-Marie Le Pen)在法國總統選舉中一路殺入最後的兩人對決，引起巨大震動。還記得在勒龐在第一輪投票中取得成功後的那天早上，我去布魯塞爾的歐盟新聞中心，見證了我的法國同行的恐懼和羞恥。

The good news is that Mr Le Pen was soundlybeaten in the final round. The bad news is that, in retrospect, hisbreakthrough marked a turning point in European politics.

好消息是勒龐在最終一輪投票中大敗。壞消息則是，回想起來，他所取得的突破標誌着歐洲政治的轉折點。

Ever since 2002, the themes that Mr Le Penchampioned —nationalism, a hatred of immigration, denunciation of “unpatriotic”elites,fear of Islam, rejection of the EU, protectionism —have grownin strength in Europe.

自2002年以來，民族主義、對移民的憎恨、對“不愛國”精英的譴責、對伊斯蘭的恐懼、對歐盟的抵制、保護主義，這些勒龐一力倡導的主題思想，在歐洲日益發展壯大。

The far right has not yet formed agovernment in western Europe. But it has changed the debate and forcedmainstream politicians to embrace some of their themes.

極右翼目前還未在西歐哪國組建政府。不過，它已經改變了政治辯論，迫使主流政客接受他們的部分主題思想。

I fear that the same thing will happen withMr Trump. The odds are that the “Republican” (if that is what he is) will loseto Hillary Clinton in November. But the Trump campaign has already changed USand world politics — and it will make an even deeper imprint in the next sixmonths of campaigning.

我擔心特朗普身上會發生同樣的事情。11月，這位“共和黨人”（如果他算是的話）很可能會輸給希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)。然而，特朗普的競選已經改變了美國和全球政治，而且他會在今後六個月的選戰中打下更深的烙印。

Themes and ideas that were on the fringeshave now entered the political mainstream, and they will not disappear if andwhen Mr Trump loses.

曾經的邊緣主題思想和理念如今已進入政治主流。就算特朗普輸掉選舉，它們也不會消失。

What are those ideas? I would highlightfive. First, a rejection of globalisation and free trade. This, of course, is atheme that Mr Trump shares with Bernie Sanders on the left of the Democraticparty. Its influence can already be seen in the way in which Mrs Clinton hasbacked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that she oncechampioned.

那麼，這些主題思想是什麼呢？我會重點強調五點。首先是對全球化和自由貿易的抵制。當然，特朗普和民主黨左翼的伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)都提出了這個競選主題。它的影響，從希拉里不再支持《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)就可見一斑——她曾大力支持這份貿易協定。

The second theme is nationalism, epitomisedby Mr Trump’s slogan of “America First”. In Europe, nationalism implies arejection of the EU. But the global implications of American nationalism aremuch more serious since the US underpins the whole international securitysystem and issues the world’s reserve currency, the dollar.

第二個主題則是民族主義，特朗普“美國優先”的口號就是個縮影。在歐洲，民族主義意味着對歐盟的抵制。然而，美國的民族主義對全球的影響要嚴重得多，因爲美國支撐着整個國際安全體系，併發行着全球儲備貨幣——美元。

A third idea is the embrace of the notionof a “clash of civilisations” between the west and Islam. Even as PresidentGeorge W Bush launched a “war on terror” in 2001, he rejected the idea that theUS is at war with Islam itself. Mr Trump, with his talk of temporarily banningall Muslims from entering the US, has essentially embraced the idea ofinevitable conflict between the west and the Islamic world.

第三個主題，是接受西方與伊斯蘭世界之間存在“文明衝突”的觀點。即使是在喬治•W•布什(George W. Bush)總統2001年發動“反恐戰爭”時，他也抵制住了美國在與伊斯蘭世界交戰的看法。而特朗普提出的暫時禁止所有穆斯林進入美國，實質上是接納了西方與伊斯蘭世界不可避免發生衝突的觀點。

A fourth theme is a relentless assault onthe “elite”, including Washington, Wall Street and the universities. A populistdistrust of elites as been a perennial theme in US politics for decades, if notcenturies. But growing inequality, immigration and the financial crisis havedriven anti-elite rhetoric to new levels. As a New York billionaire, Mr Trumpis an unlikely tribune of the common man. But he has played the cardeffectively during the campaign.

第四個主題是對包括華盛頓、華爾街和美國各大學在內的“精英人士”的猛烈抨擊。民粹主義對精英的不信任成爲美國的長期政治主題就算沒有幾百年，也有幾十年的歷史。然而，社會不平等的日益加劇、外來移民以及金融危機，已經把反精英的言論推到了新高度。作爲紐約的億萬富翁，特朗普不太可能是普通民衆的守護者。然而他在選戰期間卻十分有效地打了這張牌。

A fifth and related trend is thedenunciation of the mainstream media as untrustworthy and an embrace ofalternative, conspiratorial narratives that are flourishing on the internet. MrTrump, for example, has promoted the baseless idea that President Barack Obamawas not born in the US. This embrace of conspiracy theories is pernicious fordemocracy, which requires some agreement on basic facts as the foundation fordebate.

第五個主題及與此有關的趨勢，是對主流媒體不值得信任的譴責，以及對互聯網上盛行的另類陰謀論敘事的接納。比如，特朗普一直在宣傳巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統並非出生在美國的毫無根據的觀點。這種對陰謀論的接納對民主極爲有害，因爲民主需要在一定程度上對基本事實的共識，作爲辯論的基礎。

Variants of these five trends are alsoflourishing on the far right in Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungaryare in the hands of parties that preach a Trumpian mix of nationalism, fear ofIslam, distrust of the “liberal” media and anti-globalism. In France, Mr Le Pen’s daughter,Marine, is likely to make it to the final round of the presidential election in2017.

上述五種趨勢的變體在歐洲極右翼人士中也十分盛行。執掌波蘭政府和匈牙利政府的黨派，正在鼓吹混合了民族主義、對伊斯蘭的恐懼、對“自由派”媒體的不信任和反全球化的特朗普式理念。在法國，勒龐的女兒馬琳(Marine)可能會在2017年的總統選舉中進入最後一輪。