俄羅斯難以擺脫中國放緩影響

Russians shrug at the thought of a 3 per cent currency devaluation, such as the renminbi experienced last week. After all, the rouble experiences similar swings alMost daily.

人民幣上週走低3%。對於這種幅度的貶值，俄羅斯人只會聳聳肩。畢竟，盧布幾乎天天經歷這樣的波動。

But as Russia puts ever greater weight on its ties with China as part of President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of “pivoting to Asia”, the slowdown in the Chinese economy is not so easy to shrug off.

但是，隨着俄羅斯按照弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)總統“轉向亞洲”的戰略，越來越注重其與中國的關係，中國經濟放緩並不是靠聳聳肩就能輕鬆拋在腦後的。

Russia this month reported that its recession deepened in the second quarter, with the economy contracting 4.6 per cent year on year.

俄羅斯本月報告第二季度經濟衰退加劇，經濟同比收縮4.6%。

China is Russia’s single largest trade partner, accounting for $30.6bn of imports and exports in the first half of the year. That figure represents a 28.7 per cent fall from a year earlier, according to Russian customs data. However, Russia’s trade with China has declined less than with other countries, meaning that China has increased its share of Russia’s trade from 10.8 per cent to 11.4 per cent.

中國是俄羅斯最大的貿易伙伴，上半年雙邊進出口總額達到306億美元。根據俄羅斯海關數據，這個數字代表着28.7%的同比跌幅。然而，俄羅斯對華貿易的降幅小於該國對其他國家貿易的降幅，這意味着中國在俄羅斯對外貿易中的佔比從10.8%提高至11.4%。

Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, says the sheer size of China’s economy means the country will continue to represent an opportunity for Russia, even in an environment of slower growth. “In physical amounts, the volumes of their exports is still considerable. They’re still buying a lot from Russia,” he says.

莫斯科晉新資本(Renaissance Capital)經濟學家奧列格柯茲敏(Oleg Kouzmin)表示，中國經濟的龐大規模意味着，其對俄羅斯而言將繼續代表着一個機遇，即便在經濟增長放緩的環境也是如此。“就絕對數量而言，他們的出口量仍相當可觀。他們也仍在從俄羅斯購買很多東西，”他說。

Moreover, Mr Kouzmin points out that the focus on increasing economic ties between the two countries is primarily a political project built on grandiose deals, such as the 30-year gas export contract signed between Gazprom and CNPC last year. “To a large extent it’s a politically driven decision,” he says. “Politics doesn’t get scared by all this stuff about GDP.”

此外，柯茲敏指出，俄中加強經貿往來主要是一項政治工程，其着眼點是一些宏大的交易，如俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)去年與中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)簽署的30年天然氣出口合同。“在很大程度上，那是一個政治決策，”他說。“政治不會被這些關於GDP的細枝末節嚇倒。”

Even the grand political projects are not immune from the effects of China’s economic swoon, however.

然而，就連宏大的政治工程也無法免受中國經濟低迷的影響。

In the Energy sector, Gazprom has been hoping to sign another deal for exports to western China. A deal on the “western route” is important for the state-controlled gas export monopoly as it would allow it to deliver gas from its existing west Siberian fields, which produce much less than their full capacity.

在能源領域，Gazprom一直希望簽署另一筆協議，向中國西部出口。“西線”交易對於這家國有控股的天然氣出口壟斷企業十分重要，因爲這將使其能夠從現有的西西伯利亞氣田輸送天然氣，那裏目前的產量遠低於全部產能。

But negotiations are progressing slowly, according to people familiar with the talks.

但據知情人士透露，談判進展緩慢。

Jonathan Stern, chairman of gas research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, says that a sharp slowdown in Chinese gas demand in the past year has strengthened Beijing’s hand.

牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)天然氣研究負責人喬納森斯特恩(Jonathan Stern)表示，過去一年裏中國天然氣需求大幅放緩，加強了中方的談判地位。

“The Chinese are really in the driving seat. Their economy is doing poorly; gas demand is way down on what we thought it would be. They’re in a really strong position to negotiate with the Russians,” he says.

“中國人確確實實坐在駕駛員座位。他們的經濟表現不佳；天然氣需求遠低於我們預測的水平。他們在與俄方談判時處在真正的有利地位，”他說。

There are some bright spots. The decline in the rouble since last December has stimulated an increase in Russian exports of certain products, such as sunflower oil and beer, to China, says Evgeny Gavrilenkov of Sberbank CIB.

也有一些亮點。俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank CIB)葉夫根尼加夫裏連科夫(Evgeny Gavrilenkov)表示，自去年12月以來盧布下跌，推動了俄羅斯某些產品的對華出口，如葵花子油和啤酒。

“Russian manufacturing companies have become competitive in principle on the Chinese market,” he says. “Russian small and medium-sized business is quite adaptable. If there is a demand in China it will always be possible to find some niches on the Chinese market.”

“俄羅斯製造企業原則上已在中國市場變得有競爭力，”他說。“俄羅斯中小企業的適應力較強。只要中國存在需求，總有可能在中國市場找到某些縫隙領域。”

In comments carried by the news agency Ria Novosti, the Russian central bank said the devaluation of the renminbi would have “no significant impact” on the rouble. The bank argued that in the medium term it might even lead to a stronger rouble by helping to stimulate a recovery in the Chinese economy, and so in commodity prices.

據俄新社(Ria Novosti)報道，俄羅斯央行表示，人民幣貶值對盧布“沒有顯著影響”。該行認爲，中期而言此舉甚至可能導致盧布走高，因爲它有助於刺激中國經濟復甦，進而推高大宗商品價格。

Mr Gavrilenkov points out that it is the volatility of the rouble — which has nearly halved in value against the dollar in the past 12 months — rather than the volatility of the renminbi that is holding back Chinese investment in Russia. “This is not an environment where you can make long-term decisions,” he says. “This is what holds people back from moving to invest in Russia.”

加夫裏連科夫指出，妨礙中國對俄投資的不是人民幣的波動，而是盧布的波動；過去12個月期間盧布兌美元匯率近乎減半。“這不是一個你可以做長期決策的環境，”他表示。“這纔是阻止人們到俄羅斯投資的因素。”