共和黨初選引人注目 特朗普的提名之路

The crowning moment of this year’s remarkable Republican race was not expected to occur in Indiana. In fact, it was never expected to happen at all.

人們沒有預料到，今年共和黨這場引人注目的初選的加冕時刻會發生在印第安納州。事實上，從一開始就沒人預料這一時刻會發生。

By triumphing in the state’s primary on Tuesday, Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican party nominee, forcing his rival Ted Cruz to abandon his White House ambitions and setting himself up for a November general election fight with Hillary Clinton.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在週二贏得該州初選，成爲共和黨假定被提名人，迫使對手特德•克魯茲(Ted Cruz)放棄總統野心，並準備好在11月大選中與希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)狹路相逢。

But the real estate mogul also demolished more than a year’s worth of conventional wisdom by building one of the least-expected electoral coalitions in history.

但這位房地產大亨也打破了一年多來形成的普遍看法，建立了一個歷史上最不受期待的競選聯盟。

When Mr Trump descended the escalator at Trump Tower in New York last June and launched his unorthodox campaign with a bizarre speech attacking “Mexican rapists,” almost every commentator viewed it as just another bout of show business by the former star of The Apprentice, the reality television programme.

去年6月，當特朗普從紐約“特朗普大廈”(Trump Tower)扶梯上走下來，以一場攻擊“墨西哥強姦犯”的荒唐演講開啓他的另類競選活動時，幾乎所有評論員都認爲這不過是這位前電視真人秀節目《學徒》(The Apprentice)明星作的又一場商業“秀”。

The next morning, the New York Daily News ran the headline, “Clown runs for Prez”. The New York Post said that he gave a “fiery, take-no-prisoners speech that promised to create jobs and blow up the ‘stupid’ DC establishment”. While the Post was more charitable than most, it also ended up being much closer to the mark.

次日，《紐約每日新聞》(New York Daily News)刊出的頭條題爲“小丑競選總統”(Clown runs for Prez)。《紐約郵報》(New York Post)說他發表了一場“激情澎湃、立場堅定的演講，承諾要創造就業機會，還要擊潰‘愚蠢的’華盛頓體制。”雖然《紐約郵報》比大多數媒體更仁慈，但也更接近事實。

Over the past nine months, Mr Trump has proven he has a better handle on what his party’s base wants than have elite Republican politicians who struggled to understand how the abrasive tycoon managed to forge past rivals such as former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey governor Chris Christie and now Mr Cruz.

在過去的9個月裏，特朗普證明了自己比共和黨精英政客更理解其選民的需要，而那些精英們怎樣也想不出，這位粗魯的大亨是如何成功挫敗其競選對手的，包括前佛羅里達州州長傑布•布什(Jeb Bush)、新澤西州州長克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)，以及現在的克魯茲。

While many consider him a bully, Mr Trump has shown an uncanny ability to label his rivals with nicknames that stick, such as “Little Marco” Rubio, “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, and “Low Energy” Jeb Bush. He has already begun referring to “Crooked Hillary”.

雖然許多人認爲他是惡霸，但特朗普展示了一項不可思議的能力——爲他的對手起外號，而且這些外號很難甩脫。比如“小馬可”•魯比奧，“說謊特德”•克魯茲，以及“低能”傑布•布什。現在他已經開始叫起“不誠實的希拉里”。

At campaign rallies from Iowa to Indiana, Republican voters repeatedly said that they were tired of Washington politicians and believed Mr Trump would return jobs to the US and “Make America Great Again”.

從愛荷華州到印第安納州，共和黨選民們在競選集會上反覆表示他們厭倦了華盛頓的政客，他們相信特朗普將把工作機會帶回美國，“讓美國再次偉大”。

Maria, a Hispanic woman at a Trump rally in South Bend, Indiana on Monday, said that while she did not agree completely with the tycoon’s immigration policy — which involves building a wall at the Mexican border — she considered him the best candidate. “You know what he is getting,” she said. “He is not faking it. He is not a flip-flopper.”

週一，在印第安納州南本德(South Bend)的特朗普競選集會上，一位名叫瑪麗亞(Maria)的西班牙裔女子表示，雖然她並不完全同意這位大亨的移民政策——包括在美墨邊境修築隔離牆——但她認爲他是最佳人選。她說：“你知道他想要什麼，他沒有僞裝。他不是牆頭草。”

When Mr Trump came in second after Mr Cruz in February’s Iowa caucus, which kicked off the Republican race, many experts concluded his campaign was a flash in the pan.

2月份愛荷華州的黨團會議拉開了共和黨競選大幕，當時特朗普落後克魯茲排在第二位，許多專家認定他的競選是曇花一現。

But he won New Hampshire a week later and then started to sweep many of the states across the southern Bible Belt, winning larger numbers of evangelical voters than expected. The party was forced to acknowledge he would be the nominee unless one of his rivals consolidated the anti-Trump vote. With a long list of candidates remaining in the field, that effectively become impossible.

但一週後他就贏得了新罕布什爾州，接着開始橫掃南部“聖經地帶”(Bible Belt)的多個州，贏得了大量福音派選民，人數遠超預期。共和黨被迫承認他將成爲被提名人，除非他的某位對手能集合反對特朗普的選票。由於共和黨有着長長的參選者名單，這實際上變得不可能。

During the three-month primary campaign, Mr Trump consistently did better with certain specific demographic groups as his share of the Republican vote gradually climbed.

在過去3個月的初選中，特朗普在所獲共和黨選票比例逐步攀升的同時，在贏得某些特定羣體支持方面一直做得比較好。

He won more men than women, more middle-aged voters than the young or old, and more people who did not go to college than those who did.

相對於女性、年輕或老年、受過高等教育的人羣，他贏得了更多男性、中年、未受過高等教育的選民的支持。

But the notion that his supporters are mostly white, male blue-collar workers has been repeatedly challenged by exit poll data and by the faces at his rallies, notably in states such as Florida where he ousted Mr Rubio, a Cuban-American senator.

但關於特朗普的支持者大都是藍領白人男性工人的說法，一再遭到了出口民調數據以及參加他競選集會的人羣構成的挑戰，特別是在特朗普擊敗古巴裔參議員馬可•魯比奧(Marco Rubio)的佛羅里達等州。

Even in New Hampshire, in February, he won among women and led the field in every age bracket and every educational category.

即便在今年2月新罕布什爾州的初選中，特朗普也在女性中贏得了支持，而且其支持率在各個年齡段以及教育水平的人羣中都保持領先。

“We won with highly educated, with less than highly educated, with the rich and the poor . . . we won with everyone,” Mr Trump said at his rally in South Bend on Monday.

在本週一印第安納州南本德舉行的競選集會上，特朗普稱：“我們贏得了受過高等教育人羣的支持，贏得了未受過高等教育人羣的支持，贏得了富人的支持，贏得了窮人的支持……我們贏得了所有人的支持。”

In the same rally, he pointed out something that voters at his events frequently raise — that despite reservations about his personality, they approve of his message on tackling illegal immigration, hitting Isis harder, and doing better deals around the world.

在此次集會上，特朗普還強調了選民在其競選活動中經常提出的一個看法——雖然對他的個性持保留態度，但他們贊成他在應對非法移民、進一步打擊“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)以及在世界各地達成更優協議方面的觀點。

“Polls start coming out where Trump is definitely the best on the border and best on everything, and I mean best on everything, except they didn’t like my personality. Who cares about my personality?” the tycoon said.

這位地產大亨稱：“民調開始顯示，特朗普在邊境政策方面絕對是最好的，各方面都是最好的，我的意思是各方面都是最好的，除了他們不喜歡我的個性。但誰會在乎我的個性呢？”

But the hostile comments Mr Trump has made towards women do appear to have held him back. The presumptive nominee’s female support regularly comes in 10 percentage points below his backing from men — a weakness Mrs Clinton, who has all but sewn up the Democratic nomination, will seek to exploit in November.

但特朗普對女性的敵意言論確實看起來在阻礙他。這位假定被提名人的女性支持率通常低於其獲得的男性支持率10個百分點，而幾乎同樣鎖定民主黨總統候選人提名的希拉里將在11月的大選中抓住這一弱點。

Mr Trump has done best with two demographic groups: those who earn less than $50,000 a year and people who have not graduated from college. These were the only two categories he won in Ohio, the Midwestern state where he was defeated by John Kasich, the sitting governor.

特朗普在贏得兩個羣體支持方面做得最好——年收入不到5萬美元的選民以及未受過高等教育的選民。在美國中西部的俄亥俄州，特朗普僅在這兩個羣體中獲勝，最終敗於該州現任州長約翰•卡西奇(John Kasich)。

Mr Trump’s critics say he cannot expand his support beyond the conservative Republican base and capture the independent voters who are crucial to winning the general election. But others, including some Democrats, worry that he will once again prove conventional wisdom wrong by pivoting to the centre and being a more effective salesman for his message than the wooden Mrs Clinton.

特朗普的批評者稱，他無法在保守的共和黨選民之外擴大支持，也無法獲得那些對贏得大選至關重要的無黨派選民的支持。但其他人（包括一些民主黨人）擔心的是，他將通過轉向中間派，通過比呆板的希拉里更有效地推銷自己的理念，再次證明普遍的看法錯了。

David Caputo, a politics expert at Pace University in New York, says Mr Trump’s candidacy will become more viable if “external events — such as a terrorist attack in the US — intervene, coupled with an economic downturn at home.

紐約佩斯大學(Pace University)政治專家大衛•卡普託(David Caputo)表示，如果有“外部事件——如美國遭受恐怖襲擊——介入，再加之國內經濟不景氣”，特朗普的總統候選人資格將變得更加穩固。

“Party leaders will come back to him,” Mr Caputo said. “Do not underestimate Donald Trump for November.”

“共和黨領袖們將回到他身邊，”卡普託說，“不要低估唐納德•特朗普在11月大選中的實力。”