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　關於商務英語的文章

A Changed Global Reality 世界經濟格局新變化

Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 1⁄2 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician. 對於新世紀，我們得這樣說：我們生活在一個有趣的時代。差不多兩年半之前，世界經濟陷入了20世紀30年代經濟大蕭條時期以來最慘重的低迷狀態。世界貿易進程大幅放緩。失業隊伍也越來越快，這在舊工業經濟體系表現尤爲突出。原來堅如磐石的金融機構也消失了，似乎還不如老套的魔術師變的花束看起來真實。

Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before. 考慮到經濟衰退幅度如此的跨時代，經濟復甦進程會很慢也是理所當然的，對此我們不應該感到吃驚。事實也正如我們所料，復甦進程確實很慢。全球經濟政治精英乘直升飛機、大巴、小汽車或是火車前往達沃斯參加一年一度的世界經濟論壇會議，此次會議上，全球經濟政治精英會發現自己開始接受一些聞所未聞的事情。

The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second — much of it politically under the thumb of the first — has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world — the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons — accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output. 當今的情況是這樣的。自工業革命以來的二百多年間，世界出現了兩大經濟體。一個支配着技術創新和貿易，累積了大量財富。另一個在政治上主要受前者的控制，在經濟上一直處於貧窮狀態並且在技術上存在依賴性。兩者的鴻亙古存在。發達國家----美國、加拿大、西歐、澳大利亞、新西蘭、日本及亞洲四小龍，以世界總人口的16%輸出着世界將近70%的產品。

But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010. 世界形勢正發生着變化。在發達國家的富人們努力重新刺激經濟增長並維持社會福利的時候，曾經的窮人們卻已經擺脫了經濟困境。像中國和印度這樣大的新興經濟體已經找到了國內需求的新來源。非洲的部分地區也正吸引着對他們真正感興趣的投資者。總之，發展中國家的力量撐起了世界經濟。據世界銀行估計，2010年，中低收入國家的經濟增長約佔世界經濟增長的一半(46%)。

A Sigh of Relief 經濟回暖，令人欣慰

In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet. 從長遠看來，這真的是個好消息。隨着幾十億的貧苦人們開始變得富有起來，他們也將能夠支付得起發達國家的人們所擁有過的享受，而這些享受在富人們眼中僅僅是普通的生活附屬品而已。但是，在慶祝一個新的經濟秩序建立之前，我們必須克服國與國之間以及國家內部存在的深層分歧。否則，世界將會重新陷入以鄰爲壑的民粹主義，最終每個人都淪爲乞丐，我們仍未脫離困境。

First, though, let's assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 21⁄2 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios — a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets. 不過首先讓我們評估一下目前情況。現在世界的狀況比一年前我們所想象的要好得多。一些經濟學家一直害怕發生的“雙底衰退”也從未出現過。2008年的美國經濟似乎一直停滯不前，但是現在一些早期跡象表明顧客開始消費了，銀行也開始發放貸款了，同時股市也在經濟蕭條兩年半之後達到了巔峯狀態。儘管歐洲一直在一重接一重的主權外債危機下苟延殘喘，但是它到目前爲止已經避免了最糟糕的狀況-----歐元崩潰，歐元崩潰是一種債務危機，從希臘和愛爾蘭這樣小的經濟體流竄到意大利和西班牙這樣大的經濟體，並且加劇了一些國家的社會騷亂，這些國家在縮減公共預算的同時不得不減少薪資。

Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the "Year of Doubt," 2011, they proclaim, will be the "Year of Recovery." U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year. 聽到如此多鼓舞人心的消息(或者至少是沒有很糟糕的消息)，高盛經濟學家幾乎變得輕率起來，最近他們更新了2011年全球和美國經濟增長預測(分別是4.8%和3.4%)。儘管2010年是“令人懷疑的一年”，但是高盛經濟學家們宣稱2011年肯定是經濟復甦的一年，努里爾•盧比尼----美國經濟學家，這次經濟危機的預言者，認爲如果一切都順利，並且沒有更糟糕的事情發生，全球經濟今年可能會增長將近4%。

It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a "year of reckoning." The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. "It's a really slow postcrisis workout," Roach says. "I'm not prepared to give the global economy the green light." 有人肯定會說：並不是每個人都同意這個觀點。吉姆•沃克----香港亞洲經濟分析諮詢公司的經濟學家，預測2011年將會是“清算之年”。沃克談到，美國經濟的反彈只是由過度刺激形成的海市蜃樓。他認爲美國將會落入2010年僥倖躲避過去的“雙底衰退”之中。即使是不那麼悲觀的人也擔心全球經濟遠沒有恢復。大多數經濟學家預計2011年經濟反彈會逐漸消失，經濟增長也可能會低於2010年。一月中旬，世界銀行估測全球GDP增長將由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶魯大學的經濟學家史蒂芬•羅奇認爲，世界經濟仍會極力從上次經濟繁榮期產生的債務和扭曲中脫身。“這真是一次緩慢的後經濟危機考驗。”羅奇說道，“我並不準備給經濟復甦這個觀點亮綠燈”。

The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn. 這種謹慎是可以理解的。在發達國家，失業率仍然很高(美國是9.4%，歐元區是10.1%)。2008年9月的私營部門債務危機到2010年11月已經演變爲公共部門危機。這是由經濟低迷期刺激經濟和救助銀行時所累積的債務和財政赤字造成的。

Politicians are being forced to scale back spending even though the recovery remains weak. In Britain, deep cuts in the budget mandated by Prime Minister David Cameron will most likely cost hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs. In the U.S., the miserable condition of state and local governments' budgets is likewise leading to a job-killing retrenchment. Europe's imposition of austerity has led to heightened political conflict. Ballooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investor's perception of risk. Noting that the U.S. "has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory," Moody's in mid-January warned that the country's AAA credit rating could come under pressure if debt continues to mount; a few days later, Moody's upgraded Indonesia's rating. 雖然復甦進程依舊疲緩，政客們仍舊被迫縮減開支。在英國，首相戴維•卡梅倫大幅消減預算很可能會導致幾十萬人失業。在美國，國家和地方政府糟糕的預算同樣也會導致工作崗位的緊縮。歐洲採取的財政緊縮政策也加劇了政治衝突。日漸高磊的債臺以及發達經濟體的疲軟經濟增長前景讓投資者們開始重新審視風險。注意到美國“對於穩定和最終扭轉不斷向上的債務曲線是沒有任何適合計劃的”，穆迪於一月中旬發出警告：如果債務持續攀升，國家AAA級信用評級會面臨被降級的危險。幾天之後，穆迪更新了印尼的評級。

The emerging economies face risks of their own. The most alarming is a sharp rise in inflation — a result of strong domestic growth, stimulus policies, and commodity prices pumped up globally by returning demand, fears of (or actual) supply constraints and the loose-money policies of the West. In early January, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned that oil prices, now over $90 a barrel, "are entering a dangerous zone" that could threaten the global recovery. The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization said its food-price index reached an all-time high in December, surpassing even the nosebleed levels of 2008's surge. Such spiking prices for the basics people need to survive are hard enough to swallow in the developed world. "Just at the point you start to see a recovery coming, you get hit by commodity prices that hit people's incomes," says Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC. In emerging markets, the fallout can be much more severe. High food prices have already contributed to the collapse of the government in Tunisia. 新興經濟體也面臨着自己的風險。最緊急的就是通貨膨脹急速加劇----這是強勁的國內增長、刺激政策以及全球物價上漲的結果，而全球物價上漲則是由需求重返、實際供應緊張以及西方寬鬆的貨幣政策導致的。一月初，國際能源機構首席經濟學家法提赫•比羅爾發出警告：現在的石油價格每桶已經超過90美元，世界經濟正踏入一個危險的區域，可能會威脅全球經濟的復甦。聯合國糧農組織表示，食品價格指數在12月份達到新高，甚至超過了2008年那令人乍舌的高度。在發達國家，人們生存必需品價格如此暴漲，令人非常難以接受。“就在你剛剛看到經濟復甦的曙光的時候，你立馬被衝擊人們收入的物價敲了當頭一棒，”匯豐銀行首席經濟學家史蒂芬•金如此說道。在新興市場，其後果可能會更加嚴重。高物價也加劇了突尼斯政府的衰敗。

Fearing the consequences, policymakers throughout the developing world have switched priorities from holding up growth to fighting inflation. In mid-January, China raised the reserve-requirement ratio — which forces banks to park more money at home for every loan they make — to a record high in an attempt to curtail credit and quell inflation, which rose at the fastest pace in two years in November. In India, raging food prices, galloping ahead by nearly 17% from a year earlier, have become such a sensitive issue that when Pakistan temporarily cut off some exports of onions to the country, it sparked a minor diplomatic row. The same measures used to bust inflation, however, will also dampen growth. The World Bank predicts slowdowns for roaring China (from 10% growth in 2010 to 8.7% in 2011) and India (9.5% to 8.4%). 由於擔心造成類似的後果，發展中國家的決策者決定把優先保持經濟增長轉爲優先抵抗通貨膨脹。一月中旬，中國將存款準備金率上調至歷史新高----強制銀行每放一筆貸款就必須在央行存放更多的儲備金，以期減少放貸、抑制通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹在十一月達到兩年來新高。在印度，瘋狂的物價較去年已飛速增長了近17%，這已經成爲了非常敏感的問題。以致於巴基斯坦在臨時縮減對印度的洋蔥出口時引發了輕微的外交爭執。然而，消除通貨膨脹的措施也會抑制經濟增長。世界銀行預測發展迅速的中國和印度的經濟增長會放緩，因爲中國的經濟增長由2010年的10%下降到2011年的8.7%，印度由9.5%下降到8.4%。

Was It for This? 這就是爲了未來而進行的所謂的“合作”嗎?

Such numbers, of course, are beyond the dreams of workers and consumers in developed economies. Millions from Michigan to Madrid want to work but can't — leading them to put countless small dreams for themselves and their families on hold — so the risk that the shift of economic power will breed populist resentment rises. Many in the developed world are only now becoming aware that the globe's economic future will be determined not just in London or New York City but in Beijing and New Delhi too. "The problem that Western economies have is that they haven't realized the full effect of the rise of the emerging world," says HSBC's King. 當然，這樣的數字是發達經濟體的工人和消費者做夢都不敢想的。從密歇根到馬德里，上百萬的人們想要工作但卻不能----這使他們將自己和家人的無數小夢想都暫時擱置----因此，由經濟實力改變引起的民粹主義不滿情緒的風險加大。發達國家的許多人就剛剛纔意識到，未來的全球經濟不僅僅由倫敦或紐約這樣的城市決定，也同樣由北京和新德里這樣的城市決定。“西方經濟體所面臨的問題是：他們沒有意識到新興世界興起的全面影響，”匯豐銀行主席如是說。

One suspects they soon will. The summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington took place in a highly charged atmosphere. China is tired of being lectured to by those who seem unable to manage their own economies particularly well. U.S. politicians, with an ear to their constituents, are lobbying for protective tariffs if China does not allow its currency to appreciate. U.S. businesses, which have in the past been supportive of free trade and engagement with China, are beginning to sing with different voices. Large technology and industrial companies grumble that China's pursuit of "indigenous innovation" through regulatory and procurement policies is freezing them out of potentially lucrative markets. 有人猜測聽他們很快就會意識到這個問題。美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬和中國國家主席胡錦濤在華盛頓舉行峯會，氣氛高度緊張。中國厭倦了被那些連自己的經濟都管理不好的國家討伐。如果中國不允許人民幣升值，願意聽從選民意見的美國政客們將會遊說保護性關稅。而且，那些過去大力支持與中國進行自由貿易和合作的商業家們也開始唱反調。

In the U.S. and Europe, a certain helplessness in the face of huge economic forces is fueling a disaffection — which makes itself felt in different ways in different societies — with the global financial elites and the policymakers who are thought to have connived with them. There was a particularly poignant moment when Ireland, which cherishes its independence like a precious jewel, was forced to go cap in hand to the E.U. for a bailout in November. "Was it for this?" The Irish Times asked in a famous editorial on the humiliation. The question (though few outside Dublin got the reference) was an echo of a line from W.B. Yeats' great poem "September 1913," which excoriated a bourgeois capitalism whose merchants "fumble in a greasy till/ And add the halfpence to the pence/ And prayer to shivering prayer, until/ You have dried the marrow from the bone." 在美國和歐洲，面對巨大經濟壓力卻無能爲力的現象正激起着人們對全球的金融精英以及決策者的不滿，認爲金融精英與決策者們串通一氣，這種不滿在不同社會表現形式不同。視獨立如珍寶的愛爾蘭，11月，爲了得到救助，不得不求助於歐盟，這令人感到非常心酸。“這就是愛爾蘭想要的嗎?”愛爾蘭時報在關於屈辱的著名社論中問道。這個問題(儘管只有愛爾蘭人才能真正明白其中含義)與威廉•巴特勒•葉芝的著名詩作“1913年9月”中的一行詩產生共鳴，它痛斥資產階級資本主義，因爲他們的商人“在滿是油污的錢櫃裏摸索/一點一點地積攢/不停地禱告直到榨乾工人們的最後一滴血。”

How can a disaffection with global capitalism in the developed world be prevented from turning into a backlash against it? It would help if there were mechanisms in place to manage the stresses in the international economy. Instead, there is something close to a breakdown in global economic cooperation. The WEF's closely read Global Risks report identifies "global governance failures" as an overarching risk facing the world. "Global governance capacities are highly fragmented," the report argues. "There is a growing sense of paralysis in responding to global challenges." 如何阻止人們對發達國家倡導的全球資本主義的不滿演變爲強烈抵制?如果有適當的機制來調控國際經濟壓力可能會起作用。而恰恰相反的是，全球經濟合作接近崩潰。全球經濟論壇倍受關注的全球風險報告指出當今世界面臨的首要風險是“全球治理失敗”。報告稱，“全球治理能力高度分散，人們應對全球挑戰越來越無力。”

In the economic field, that is especially true. The Doha round of trade talks, for example, is like the emperor's new clothes in Hans Christian Andersen's famous tale: everyone knows there's nothing there, but nobody will say so. The spirit of camaraderie forged in the early days of the financial crisis — all the hopeful meetings and optimistic communiqués of the G-20 — has been replaced by every-country-for-itself thinking. As nations scramble to protect their own people from the continued fallout of the Great Recession, the threat of currency and trade wars has become very real. Governments from Tokyo to Santiago have been intervening in currency markets, imposing measures to restrict capital flows and taking other steps to try to prevent rising currencies from denting export competitiveness. "The currency war is a proxy for a jobs war," says Roach. In the mind of every policymaker looms — at least, it should — the disastrous spiral into protectionism that deepened the Depression in the 1930s. 在經濟領域，這種問題更加突出。例如，多哈回合貿易談判就像安徒生著名的童話故事中皇帝的新裝一樣：每個人都知道談判不會有什麼結果，但是沒有人說出來。早期金融危機鑄就的互助友愛的精神----20國集團所有的充滿希望的會議和振奮人心的公告----都被各國自私利己的想法替代了。由於各國面對日趨嚴峻的大蕭條境況，都急於保護本國人民的利益，因此貨幣和貿易之戰已成爲非常現實的威脅。從東京到聖地亞哥的政府一直都在干預貨幣市場，採取措施限制資本流動，並盡力阻止不斷升值的貨幣削弱出口競爭力。“貨幣之戰其實就是工作崗位之戰，”羅奇說道。決策者至少應該想到，這種災難性的螺旋式保護主義曾加劇了20世紀30年代的大蕭條。

Yet the unmediated rift between countries, each desperate to preserve its edge in the global economic game, is not even the most serious division that policymakers have to contend with. That, rather, is what the WEF's Global Risks calls economic disparity. "The benefits of globalization seem unevenly spread," reads the report. "A minority is seen to have harvested a disproportionate amount of the fruits. Issues of economic disparity and equity at both the national and international levels are becoming increasingly important ... Politically, there are signs of resurgent nationalism and populism as well as social fragmentation." 在這場全球經濟競技中，每個國家都誓死保持自己的優勢，然而，這種國家間的即刻裂痕並不是決策者們需要應對的最嚴重分歧。其實，這種裂痕就是世界經濟論壇全球風險所說的經濟差距。“全球化帶來的好處似乎分佈不均衡，”報告表明，“小部分地區似乎付出與收穫並不成比例。國內和國際水平的經濟差距與公平越來越重要.......政治上，有民族主義，民粹主義以及社會分裂擡頭的跡象。”

The warning is timely. In the rich world, the gains that the working class made during what the French call the trente glorieuses after 1945 — decent health care, guaranteed pensions — are seen as increasingly fragile. In the developing world, economic success sometimes seems to go hand in hand with growing inequality. 報告爲人們及時敲響了警鐘。法國人稱1945年之後的三十年爲“輝煌三十年”，在這三十年裏，發達國家的工人們創造了豐厚的收益----全面的醫保，有保障的養老金，然而現在這些優越條件都在慢慢瓦解。

None of these divisions — between and within nations — are ones that have to last for ever. But it will take hard work and creativity — both within discrete polities and in international forums — if they are not to cloud what should be the happy prospect of a world in which many, many more people live lives that are fulfilling and comfortable. We can see that meadow at the end of the woods. But we aren't in it yet. 國際和國內的這些分歧，沒有一個會永遠存在。世界的前景是美好的----越來越多的人們生活得非常充實與舒適，如果不想破壞如此美好的未來，他們就必須在解決國際與國內事務上努力工作，發揮創造力。我們已經可以看到灌木叢深處的草木了，但是我們仍舊未進入到那個世界。