爲何人人關心十八屆三中全會

All eyes are on the upcoming 3rd Plenum of the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC). Slated to take place between Nov. 9 to 12 in Beijing this is often a platform in which Chinese officials announce crucial reforms.

We reached out to Bill Bishop, author of the must-read Sinocism China Newsletter, to understand why these meetings are so important and what reforms we can expect this year.

Business Insider: What is the 3rd Plenum?

Bill Bishop: A Plenum is a meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee. This Central Committee has 205 full and 171 alternate members, chosen at the First Plenum of the 18th Party Congress in November 2012. Each Party Congress lasts for 5 years, and with the exception of the first year there is usually one Plenum held per year. The Politburo, comprised of 25 members, meets More regularly, and the Standing Committee, made up of 7 members, meets even more frequently. Xi Jinping is the General Secretary of the Party and also holds the top posts in the State (President) and Military (Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Third Plenums are seen as important because the First Plenum introduces the new leadership, the Second Plenum tends to be personnel- and Party construction-focused, while the third one is usually seen as the first plenary session at which the new leadership has basically consolidated power and can introduce a broader economic and political blueprint.

BI: Why is it significant?

BB: Not all Third Plenums are that significant, and plenty of reforms have happened outside of a Third Plenum, But, the Third Plenum of the 11th Party Congress in December 1978 launched “reform and opening” and put China on its current path.

The Third Plenum of the 14th Party Congress, held in November 1993, formally endorsed the concept of “Socialist market Economy”, which provided the theoretical foundation and political cover for a more aggressive set of economic reforms pushed by then-Premier Zhu Rongji

BI: What reforms should we expect at the 3rd Plenary Session of the 18th CPC?

BB: The top leadership has recently repeatedly said that the Third Plenum will introduce comprehensive and unprecedented reforms. The hope is that the Plenum will introduce land ownership and transfer reforms, broader financial reforms, changes to the household registration system that give rural residents greater rights and social protections, changes to the center-local fiscal relationships, more trade liberalization to increase openness, policies designed to try to spur innovation, factor price reform that may weaken State-Owned Enterprises (SOE), reduction of administrative interference in the economy, and a 5 year plan to combat corruption.

BI: What reforms do you think will be sidelined?

BB: There may be some SOE reforms but we will not see talk of privatization. More likely there will be reforms that will weaken many of those SOEs, such as factor price reform. There will be political reform but not in the Western, liberal sense. The goal will be to make the party more efficient, responsible and accountable, all to ensure continued single Party rule.

Some people argue that China’s can not truly transform its economy without broader, liberal political reforms that unleash a “marketplace of ideas”, creativity and innovation. The leadership does not seem to agree with that argument.

Effectively combating corruption is key to most of these reforms. if the Party can not get corruption under control—not eradicate it, as that is unrealistic—then much of this will be just talk.

BI: What does this mean for the Chinese economy?

BB: It is unclear. Many of these changes will take years to implement, and some may be thwarted or distorted as they flow from the center down through the bureaucracies. But expect the overarching goal to be the transformation of the economic growth model and the de-emphasis of GDP.

BI: Why should investors care?

BB: If the leadership gets it right then China should be able to work through many of the current economic problems, albeit very painfully. If they do not, the country may be headed to severe distress in the next few years.

As for individual stocks, there are lots of local analysts putting out recommendations on stocks that could benefit and some have run up significantly ahead of the Plenum. At least in the short-term you may see smart investors “buying on the rumor and selling on the Plenum”, as there are so many expectations built into this upcoming meeting that it is hard to see how there will not be disappointment in the near-term. And expect many of the pundits and economists to express “disappointment” with whatever is in the report, so there may be a shift back toward more negative sentiment about China in overseas discourse.

But smart investors and entrepreneurs and executives know that there will be plenty of money-making opportunities for those who can understand what the report is really saying.

BI: Anything else you think our readers should know?

BB: Some of the most important reforms in China are not mandated from Beijing, either in Third Plenums or other meetings, but happen at the local levels and then are adopted in other areas around the country. So while the Plenum Report will be important, it will be far from the end of what reforms may occur in the country over the next few years.所有的目光都聚焦在即將於11月9日至12日召開的中國共產黨第十八屆中央委員會第三次全體會議。三中全會歷來是中國領導人宣佈重要改革決策的平臺。

Sinocism中國電郵通訊是利明璋爲幫助外國讀者更好了解中國而發起的。我們向他了解這些會議的重要性，以及今年可以期待哪些改革。

《商業內幕》雜誌：“三中全會”是什麼？

利明璋：全會是中共中央召開的會議。2012年11月十八屆一中全會上選舉出由205名中央委員，171名候補委員組成的十八屆中央委員會。黨的中央委員會每屆任期五年，除第一年外每年通常都會召開全會。25名中央政治局委員定期會面，而7名常委則更經常會面。習近平現任中國共產黨中央委員會總書記，中華人民共和國主席，中共中央軍事委員會主席。

三中全會很重要，因爲一中全會主要介紹新領導集體，二中全會專注於部署人事、進行黨建，三中全會通常被視爲新領導集體鞏固政權、勾勒經濟政治藍圖的第一次全體大會。

《商業內幕》雜誌：三中全會爲何如此重要？

利明璋：並非所有的三中全會都那麼重要，很多改革也不是三中全會上提出的。但是，正是由於1978年12月召開的十一屆三中全會上提出的“改革開放政策”，中國的發展才走上正軌，呈現出今天這一局面。

1993年11月召開的十四屆三中全會正式支持“社會市場經濟”這一概念，它爲朱鎔基總理貫徹更積極的經濟改革政策提供了理論基礎和政治保護。

《商業內幕》雜誌：我們可以期待哪些方面的改革？

利明璋：高層領導近期反覆強調三中全會將進行全面深化的改革。人們希望三中全會提出土地產權和流轉改革、實現更廣泛的金融改革、改革戶口登記制度以使農村居民享受更多權利和社會保護、改變中央地方財政關係、推進貿易自由化以增強開放性、出臺激發創新的政策、改革可能削弱國有企業的生產要素價格、減少經濟中的行政干預、制訂五年規劃打擊腐敗。

《商業內幕》雜誌：你認爲哪些改革會被排除在外？

利明璋：有些國有企業的改革可能不會提到私有化問題。更有可能會提到削弱國有企業的一些改革，如生產要素價格的改革。也會提到政治改革，但不會是西方自由意義層面上的改革。三中全會的目標是使共產黨更有效率，更加負責，進而確保一黨專政的繼續執行。

一些人認爲中國若不採取更爲廣泛、更爲自由、釋放思想、進行創新的政治改革，就不能真正實現經濟改革。領導集體似乎並不同意這一觀點。

實現大部分改革的核心是高效的反腐行動。如果黨控制不了腐敗問題或無法根除腐敗行爲（完全消滅畢竟不大現實），那大部分改革都只是空話。

《商業內幕》雜誌：這對中國經濟意味着什麼?

利明璋：目前還不清楚。大部分改革需要實施多年，有些改革從中央下到各政府機構時可能會受到阻撓或歪曲。但是可以預期首要的目標是轉變經濟增長方式和弱化GDP的重要性。

《商業內幕》雜誌：爲什麼投資者要關注全會？

利明璋：如果領導層正確實施改革，雖然會很艱難，但中國應該能解決當前面臨的經濟問題。但如果經濟問題得不到解決，中國在接下來的幾年中可能會遭遇嚴重的困境。

就個人股而言，很多地方分析人士開始推薦可能從全會受益的股票，而有些股票在全會之前價格已經大幅上漲。至少短期內你會發現精明的投資者“一有謠言就買，一開全會就賣”，因爲很多人都把期望寄託在這個即將到來的會議，但近期看來是會令人失望。很多專家和經濟學家預計會對報告的內容表達他們的“失望”，因此海外對中國的報道可能會轉回更爲負面的情緒。

但是精明的投資者、企業家和主管們知道，那些理解報告內涵的人士將會有大量賺錢的機會。

《商業內幕》雜誌：有沒有讀者應該瞭解的其他信息？

利明璋：中國一些重要的改革並不是由中央在三中全會或其他會議上批准執行的，而是先在地方層面執行，隨後被國內其他地區採納。所以，儘管三中全會的報告很重要，但它遠非中國接下來幾年可能實施的最終改革。