科技變革浪潮從美國撲面而來 勿迷信硅谷

“If you are an entrepreneur, the best thing you can do is move to the US.” This is not the boast of a proud American but the advice one successful German entrepreneur hands out to his compatriots.

“如果你是一位創業者的話，你能做的最好的事情就是搬到美國去。”這並非驕傲的美國人的自吹自擂，而是一位成功的德國企業家奉送給他的同胞們的建議。

I heard this at a recent conference on how to revive growth and jobs in Europe. It is typical of the stories told by frustrated European entrepreneurs. Europe has one of the most skilled workforces on the planet, they say, so why doesn’t it have its own Facebook, Google or Apple?

我是在最近一個有關如何重振歐洲經濟增長和就業的會議上聽到這番話的。這是失望的歐洲企業家講述的典型故事。他們說，歐洲擁有世界上技能最高的勞動力羣體之一，但爲什麼涌現不出Facebook、谷歌(Google)或者蘋果(Apple)呢？

They complain that regulators and companies have battened down the hatches as waves of technological change sweep in from the west. Europe seems condemned to be disrupted, rather than to disrupt. That may be so, but I wonder whether a European Silicon Valley is really the answer to the continent’s economic problems.

他們抱怨稱，在科技變革浪潮從美國撲面而來之際，監管機構和企業消極對待。歐洲似乎註定要被外人顛覆現狀，而非自己去顛覆現狀。可能是這樣吧，但我納悶的是，歐洲版的硅谷是否真的能夠解決這個大陸的經濟問題？

That is not to say that innovation is unimportant if you want to generate growth and jobs. Even though big companies are generally more productive than small ones, OECD research shows that there are tight correlations between productivity growth and dynamism in the corporate world: higher corporate “birth” and “death” rates enable resources to move where they can be best used.

這並不是說如果你希望創造經濟增長和就業，創新不重要。儘管大企業一般比小公司的生產率更高，但經合組織(OECD)的研究顯示，生產率增長與企業界活力之間存在密切關聯度：公司“誕生”和“死亡”率較高，能夠讓資源轉移到最善於利用它們的地方。

At the same time, new companies come up with novel ideas that force complacent old incumbents to boost their own levels of productivity.

與此同時，新公司帶來新穎創意，迫使自滿的老牌企業提高自己的生產率。

So, it is not surprising that European entrepreneurs cast jealous glances across the Atlantic, where there are fewer problems to contend with. In Europe, the flow of credit to small businesses has been hampered by the hangover of bad debts from the financial crisis and regulators’ attempts to make the system safer. The US did a better job of flushing out the rotten loans from the system.

因此，歐洲企業家對美國投以豔羨的目光並不奇怪，在美國要應對的問題較少。在歐洲，流向小企業的信貸受到金融危機遺留壞賬以及監管機構提高銀行體系安全度的努力的阻礙。美國在清理銀行體系壞賬方面做得更出色。

The US is also a true single market, which makes it easier for a small company to expand quickly across a population of more than 300m. In Europe, despite frequent pledges to “complete” the single market for services, companies that want to exploit the scale of the continent must contend with a thicket of regulations that vary from country to country.

此外，美國是一個真正的單一市場，這使得小公司更容易在逾3億人口的市場快速擴張。在歐洲，儘管多次承諾要“完善”服務業單一市場，但希望利用歐洲大陸規模的公司必須應對各國不盡相同的衆多監管規定。

But in spite of all the US’s advantages — in spite of its Elon Musks, its Facebooks and its Ubers — the country is doing no better than the eurozone when it comes to productivity growth. In fact, this year it is doing worse.

然而，儘管美國具備所有優勢，儘管美國有埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)、Facebook以及優步(Uber)等等，但美國在生產率增長方面並不比歐元區更出色。實際上，今年美國的表現更糟。

Figures published last week by the Conference Board, a US think-tank, suggest productivity is set to fall in the US for the first time in three decades. American workers are producing about 0.2 per cent less gross domestic product per hour than they were last year. Even workers in the eurozone are doing better than that: their output per hour is about 0.3 per cent higher.

美國智庫——世界大型企業聯合會(Conference Board)最近發佈的數據顯示，美國的生產率將出現30年來首次下滑。美國員工每小時創造的國內生產總值(GDP)比去年下滑0.2%左右。甚至連歐元區的員工的表現也好於美國：他們的每小時產出比去年高出0.3%左右。

Productivity growth has slowed across the developed and developing world in recent years. Yet it is particularly puzzling in the country that has produced some of the most innovative companies.

近年發達國家和發展中國家的生產率增速都有所放緩。然而，在涌現了不少最創新企業的美國，這一點尤其令人困惑。

What is going on? Some argue that today’s innovations are simply not as transformative as those of the past. Others think the “diffusion machine” may be broken: that innovation is simply not seeping out from a handful of groundbreaking companies into the rest of the economy.

發生了什麼？一些人認爲，現在的創新不像過去那樣具有變革意義。還有一些人認爲，“擴散機制”可能出了故障：創新沒有從少數突破性公司傳導至經濟其他領域。

If you look past the frenetic activity around San Francisco, you see the number of business start-ups in the US as a whole has slumped, just as it has in Europe.

如果你把目光投向舊金山周邊狂熱活動的範圍以外，你會看到，美國初創企業的數量已減少，就像歐洲那樣。

Work published by the OECD suggests that there is a growing divide between “frontier” businesses and the rest of the economy, with some regions and workers left behind in a low-skill, low-productivity trap.

經合組織的研究報告似乎顯示，“前沿”企業與經濟其他領域之間的差距越來越大，一些地區和勞動者落入低技能、低生產率的陷阱。

Indeed, policymakers gathered in Paris for the OECD’s annual meetings this week are starting to explore the possibility that there is a vicious circle between rising inequality and slowing productivity.

的確，最近齊聚巴黎出席經合組織年會的政策制定者們開始探討這種可能性：不平等程度上升與生產率放緩之間存在一個惡性循環。

Whatever the origins of the world’s productivity problem, Silicon Valley does not seem to be supplying the solution. While America’s great technology companies have changed the way we live and generated vast wealth for some people, they have not triggered a widespread improvement in US productivity or household incomes.

不管全球生產率問題的根源在哪裏，硅谷似乎不會提供解決問題的良方。儘管美國的一流科技公司改變了我們的生活方式，併爲某些人創造了巨大財富，但它們沒有帶來美國生產率或家庭收入的普遍提高。

Some Europeans may hanker after a Silicon Valley of their own. But the better question is not why Europe cannot emulate America’s brand of innovation but why America’s brand of innovation does not seem to work for the economy any more.

一些歐洲人可能期待打造自己的硅谷。但更好的問題並不是歐洲爲何無法仿效美國式的創新，而是美國的創新爲何似乎不再起到推動經濟的作用。