若特朗普帶來了經濟成功,將意味着什麼?

If you have two strong arguments, the surest way to lose a debate is to add a third one. The superfluous argument of our time is, More often than not, the finger-wagging warning of economic doom.

如果你已經提出了兩個強有力的論點，輸掉一場辯論的最“穩妥”辦法是添加第三個論點。我們這個時代的多餘論點經常是晃晃手指警告經濟末日。

Starting this week, we need to get our heads around the possibility that US President-elect Donald Trump is simultaneously reprehensible and economically successful — at least for some time. The instinct has often been to conflate political decency and economic efficiency because this is what has been done for such a long time. Fortuitously, our open, liberal systems also happened to be the most efficient. They even produced an acceptable distribution of income until about 10 years ago. Yet the period from 1989 to 2007 was exceptional — history is littered with economically successful dictators and economically disastrous liberal democrats.

本週開始，我們要開始考慮這樣一個可能性了：美國當選總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)既應該受到譴責，又在經濟上獲得成功——至少在一段時間內如此。人們的本能反應往往是把政治正派與經濟效率混爲一談，因爲長久以來一直是這麼做的。碰巧的是，我們的開放、自由的體系也恰恰是最有效率的體系。它們甚至產生了讓人可以接受（直到差不多10年前）的收入分配。然而1989年至2007年這段時期是個例外——人類歷史的長河中充斥着在經濟上獲得成功的獨裁者和帶來經濟災難的自由派民主人士。

You may be in Davos this week, seeking reaffirmation of your deeply held beliefs when you pontificate about the future of the universe. Or you may be on Facebook or Twitter, expressing your fury about where the world is headed. My advice is to narrow your focus. Brexit is terrible because it deprives young Britons of the right to choose where to live, study and work. It deprives them of a European identity many believed they possessed forever.

本週你可能身在達沃斯，對世界的未來發表高論，尋求讓你堅信的信仰獲得肯定。或者你可能在Facebook或Twitter上表達你對於世界發展方向的憤怒。我的建議是收窄你的關注點。英國退歐很可怕，因爲它剝奪了英國年輕人選擇在哪裏生活、學習和工作的權利，剝奪了很多人以爲會永遠擁有的歐洲身份認同。

If this is what upset you about the Leave vote, then you were insane to allow your political campaign to be hijacked by lobbyists who kept whining about the loss of the single European passport for banks. This is the superfluous argument that lost the Brexit referendum. Keep making that same mistake in the battles that loom in 2017 and the populists will win everywhere.

如果這是退歐公投結果讓你心煩的地方，那麼你讓那些不斷抱怨銀行將失去單一歐洲護照的說客來劫持你的政治運動就是瘋了。正是這種多餘論點輸掉了退歐公投。在2017年將要迎來的戰鬥中繼續犯同樣的錯誤，將讓各地的民粹主義者勝利。

Brexit has been a particularly bitter experience. Not only were the economic forecasts electorally disastrous, but some of them were wrong. It was gracious of Andy Haldane, Bank of England chief economist, to admit the limitations of economic forecasting. But he is an exception. I know economists who now say that Brexit will cause a recession this year, having failed to produce one in 2016.

英國退歐是一次格外苦澀的經歷。經濟預測不僅對投票結果造成了災難性的影響，而且其中一些預測是錯誤的。英國央行(Bank of England)首席經濟學家安迪?霍爾丹(Andy Haldane)高尚地承認了經濟預測的侷限性。但他是個例外。我認識的一些經濟學家，他們現在說英國退歐會在今年引發一場衰退，即便有關2016年將出現經濟衰退的預測未能應驗。

One of the many factors the forecasters have failed sufficiently to consider is the global environment. A Brexit-induced sterling crash could in theory have turned out to be dangerous. But this is not the 1970s. We are living in an age of excess global liquidity, which renders a fall in sterling self-limiting. Asian investors, for example, are streaming into the top of the London property market, where they find deflated prices, which they pay with a devalued currency.

預測者未能充分考慮的衆多因素之一是全球環境。由英國退歐引發的英鎊貶值，在理論上可能造成危險後果。但現在不是上世紀70年代。我們生活在全球流動性過剩的時代，這使英鎊下跌具有自限性。例如，亞洲投資者正涌入倫敦高端房地產市場，他們發現這裏房價下跌，而且購房所用的貨幣貶值了。

The truth is that our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited. We certainly cannot forecast the economic impact of a complex political event, such as Brexit or the election of a new US president. Too many future unforeseen events will intrude.

事實是，我們對超越當前季度的未來的預測能力有限。我們肯定沒法預測複雜政治事件所帶來的經濟衝擊波，比如英國退歐或美國大選。有太多無法預見的未來事件會攪局。

We cannot translate the result of an opinion poll into an election probability, either. People keep asking me to tell them the probability of Marine Le Pen, the far-right National Front leader, winning the French presidency. The problem is that the election campaign has not even started. The correct answer about the probability of a Le Pen victory is that I do not have the foggiest. Nor does anyone else.

我們也無法把民調結果轉化爲選舉概率。人們總是讓我告訴他們極右翼政黨國民陣線(National Front)領導人馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)贏得法國總統大選的機率。問題是，現在競選活動甚至還未開始。對於勒龐獲勝機率的正確答案是，我一點也不知道。也沒人知道。

The curse of our time is fake maths. Think of it as fake news for numerically literate intellectuals: it is the abuse of statistics and economic models to peddle one’s own political prejudice. More often than not, there is a kernel of truth in those forecasts, as there was in the BoE’s prediction of what could happen after Brexit. The fakeness of the maths lies in an exaggerated inference. Economic models have their uses, as do opinion polls. They provide information to policymakers and markets. But nobody can see through the fog of the future.

我們這個時代的詛咒是“假數學”。不妨把它視爲面向具備數字頭腦的知識分子的假新聞：通過濫用統計數據和經濟模型來兜售自己的政治偏見。那些預測往往都有事實作爲核心，就像英國央行對於英國退歐後可能出現的情況的預測。數學上的虛假性存在於誇張的推理中。經濟模型有其用處，就像民調一樣。它們爲政策制定者和市場提供信息。但沒人能借此看清未來。

Fake maths has given us, the liberal establishment, the illusion of certainty. Once the illusion crumbles, we are left with an uncomfortable question: is it possible that some populist demagogues will end up producing better economic policy than our friends in Davos? Take Italy as an example. The euro has been a disaster for the economy. If a populist were to win the Italian election, force a euro exit and default on foreign investors, is it not at least possible they would spur a genuine economic recovery? I do not know the answer; I know for sure that the present regime will not.

假數學給我們這些自由主義建制派一種確定性的錯覺。一旦這種錯覺被打破，我們就要面對一個令人不快的問題：某些民粹主義煽動者是否可能拿出比我們在達沃斯開會的朋友更好的經濟政策？以意大利爲例。歐元給意大利經濟帶來了災難。如果某個民粹主義者贏得意大利大選、強制退出歐元區並對外國投資者違約，難道他們不是至少有可能刺激真正的經濟復甦？我不知道答案；但我肯定當前的體制做不到。

The populists could succeed simply by undoing the mistakes of the present regime. They will not succeed in the long run. But they may succeed before they fail. The political and economic regime change we are undergoing constitutes the most serious assault on our values I can remember. We would be foolish to deny that it could just be possible, from the perspective of the median voter, that the odious populists are getting the economy right when the liberal elite did not.

民粹主義可能只要糾正當前體制的錯誤就能成功。長期而言他們不會成功。但他們有望在失敗之前先取得成功。我們正在經歷的政治和經濟體制變動，構成了我記憶中我們的價值觀遭受的最嚴重攻擊。在中間選民看來，如果我們否認可惡的民粹主義者有可能在自由派精英已經失敗的情況下讓經濟步入正軌，那麼我們將是愚蠢的。