普京到底想向特朗普要什麼

Cuddle up to the Kremlin and do not be surprised when you are burnt. There is no need to believe the lurid, unverified tales about Russian efforts to cultivate and compromise Donald Trump to recognise the danger in the president-elect’s infatuation with Vladimir Putin. Mr Trump is a wealthy property developer; the Russian president a former head of his country’s ruthless Federal Security Service, or FSB. This is not a balanced match-up.

擁抱克里姆林宮吧，當你被燒傷時，不要感到驚訝。我們不需要相信關於俄羅斯努力扶植和可能勒索唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的駭人聽聞、未經證實的故事，就能意識到這位當選總統盲目崇拜弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)的危險。特朗普是一個富有的房地產開發商；這位俄羅斯總統是該國無情的聯邦安全局(FSB)的前任領導人。兩人根本不勢均力敵。

Mr Putin has pocketed one significant victory even before Mr Trump reaches the White House. The next time US intelligence agencies flag up a security threat — another Russian incursion into Ukraine, say, or the subversion of elected governments in eastern Europe — the Kremlin has a riposte. If the occupant of the Oval Office has no faith in the CIA, the National Security Agency or the Federal Bureau of Investigation, why should anyone else believe them? Mr Trump broke all the rules of politics to win the White House, but a president at war with those charged with keeping America safe?

普京在特朗普進入白宮之前已取得了一場重大勝利。當美國情報機構下一次警示安全威脅——比如俄羅斯又一次侵入烏克蘭，或者說東歐的民選政府被顛覆——克里姆林宮就可以巧妙應對了。如果白宮橢圓形辦公室(Oval Office)的主人都不相信對中央情報局(CIA)、國家安全局(NSA)或聯邦調查局(FBI)，其他人爲什麼要相信？特朗普打破了所有政治規則，得以入主白宮，但這位總統要與那些肩負保衛美國安全的機構開戰？

Intelligence agencies do not always get it right. The CIA will pay the price for its flawed judgments on Saddam Hussein’s weapons programmes for years to come. But the spooks could scarcely have been more confident in saying that the Kremlin hacked into Democratic party computers during the presidential election campaign.

情報機構並不總是正確的。未來幾年，中情局將爲他們對於對薩達姆?侯賽因(Saddam Hussein)武器計劃的錯誤判斷付出代價。但是，諜報人員再確信不過，克里姆林宮在美國總統競選期間對民主黨計算機進行了黑客入侵。

Leading Republicans in Congress have taken the agencies at their word. Rex Tillerson, Mr Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, says it is a “fair assumption” that such cyber attacks could only have taken place with the authorisation of Mr Putin.

國會中的重要共和黨議員已相信了這些情報機構的話。被特朗普提名出任國務卿的雷克斯?蒂爾森(Rex Tillerson)表示，此類網絡攻擊只有得到普京授權纔會發生，這是一個“合理假設”。

Mr Trump prefers to shoot the messenger: this week’s leak of allegations that Moscow had gathered personally compromising material was proof of the witch-hunt against him by America’s own agencies. When Mr Trump asks rhetorically whether he is living in Nazi Germany, the adjective that comes most readily to mind is “unhinged”.

特朗普喜歡指責帶來壞消息的人：在他看來，有關莫斯科方面收集到他個人污點材料的指控上週遭到泄露，證明了美國本國機構對他的政治迫害。當特朗普言辭激烈地問他是否生活在納粹德國時，最容易讓人想到的形容詞是“精神錯亂”。

No one watching the president-elect’s rambling, petulant press conference on Wednesday could claim to know where this leaves his proposed reset of US relations with Russia. He still insists he wants to get on with Mr Putin. But then adds that maybe they will fall out. Yes, the Kremlin was probably responsible for the hacking of the Democratic National Committee, but the leaks from US intelligence agencies were the really disgraceful thing. A good relationship with Moscow would help in the fight against Isis. But no, he will not roll back President Barack Obama’s latest sanctions against Russia.

看了這位當選總統上週三那場胡言亂語、亂髮脾氣的新聞發佈會之後，誰也不能聲稱自己知道特朗普重新調整美俄關係的提議會走向何方。他仍堅稱，他想與普京接觸。但他隨後接着說，也許他們會鬧翻。沒錯，克里姆林宮可能要對民主黨全國委員會(DNC)遭黑客攻擊負責，但美國情報機構的材料泄露才是真正丟臉的事情。與莫斯科方面修好將有助於打擊“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)。但是，他不會撤銷總統巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)對俄羅斯的最新制裁。

There would be little to quarrel with in a show of White House “respect” for the Russian president to reduce tension. Mr Putin craves recognition as a leader with a place at the top table of global affairs. He shares Mr Trump’s desperately thin skin. They are brothers in narcissism. If some Trumpian backslapping succeeds in salving Mr Putin’s wounded pride, all well and good.

美國白宮爲了緩解緊張而對這位俄羅斯總統表示“尊重”，這一點無可爭議。普京渴望被承認爲在全球事務頂級談判桌上擁有一席之地的領袖。他像特朗普一樣極度敏感。他們是一對自戀的兄弟。如果特朗普的某些示好成功地挽救了普京那受傷的自尊，那也不錯。

The world is a safer place when the US and Russia find a way to manage their differences. They did so with some effect at the height of the cold war. Neither side has benefited from the renewed military build-up in eastern Europe and the Baltics. There are too many nukes around. The risks of accidental confrontation are not negligible.

當美俄找到管理彼此分歧的方法時，世界會變得更安全。在冷戰最嚴重時，它們就做到了，並且有些效果。雙方都沒有受益於東歐和波羅的海地區新的軍事集結。周圍有太多的核武器。意外對抗的風險不可忽視。

The danger arises when engagement becomes a synonym for submission, when necessary deterrence is mistaken for provocation and when “talking” to Moscow turns into a brand of geopolitical realism that says it is always for the west to give ground.

當接觸成爲屈服的同義詞時，當必要威懾被誤認爲是挑釁時，當“對話”莫斯科成爲一種認爲總是該由西方讓步的地緣政治現實主義時，危險就出現了。

As vague as Mr Trump is about what he wants from the Kremlin, Mr Putin’s goals are crystal clear. They start with western acquiescence in Russian revanchism in Ukraine and in the merciless bombing of civilians to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. They continue with the lifting of economic sanctions against Moscow, and end with eventual US disengagement from Europe and the establishment of a Russian sphere of influence in the territories of the former Soviet Union.

儘管特朗普對於他想從克里姆林宮獲得什麼語焉不詳，普京的目的卻無比清楚。首先是讓西方默許俄羅斯在烏克蘭復仇，以及在敘利亞無情轟炸平民以支持巴沙爾?阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權。接着是解除對莫斯科的經濟制裁，最後是美國最終離開歐洲、俄羅斯在前蘇聯地域上建立勢力範圍。

When Kremlin officials talk about a new security architecture for Europe what they mean is the end of the US presence. The cold war is over so the Americans should go home. Through this prism, Georgia, Belarus, and Moldova and central Asia as well as Ukraine “belong” to Moscow. For its part, Nato has outlived its purpose and certainly has no place in the former states of the Warsaw Pact.

當克里姆林宮官員談論一個新的歐洲安全架構時，他們所指的是美國存在的終結。冷戰結束了，美國人應該回家去。從他們的角度看，格魯吉亞、白俄羅斯、摩爾多瓦和中亞以及烏克蘭都“屬於”莫斯科。北約(Nato)已失去了存在的意義，前華沙條約(Warsaw Pact)組織成員國當中，當然沒有北約的位置。

If these ambitions sound fanciful, Mr Trump’s public disdain for Nato and his temperamental aversion to propping up allies has given Mr Putin an opening. Mr Trump is less interested in preserving the Pax Americana than in striking “deals” with other great powers. Europeans can pay for their own security.

如果這些野心聽起來異想天開，那麼特朗普公開蔑視北約、情緒激烈地反對給予盟國支持，爲普京提供了機會。特朗普對維護“美國治下和平”(Pax Americana)的興趣低於跟其他大國達成“交易”的興趣。歐洲人可以爲自己的安全買單。

Mr Putin’s world is Mr Trump’s world, one where narrow national interests are substituted for international rules and norms, and weaker nations submit to the will of the powerful. The balance of power, Europeans used to call it.

普京的世界就是特朗普的世界，在這個世界中，狹隘的國家利益取代了國際規則和規範，弱國屈從強國的意志。這是歐洲人曾經稱呼的“力量均衡”。

There are checks on Mr Trump. The hacking scandal puts a cloud over his motives and judgment. And if Mr Tillerson’s Senate confirmation hearing told a story it was that Mr Trump’s own party has a rather different view of Mr Putin. But the Kremlin will not be content with its early success. And who knows what Mr Trump will do once he is in the White House? Dangerous times seems something of an understatement.

特朗普面臨着一些制約。黑客醜聞給他的動機和判斷蒙上了一層陰雲。如果確認蒂爾森國務卿任命的參議院聽證會說明了一個問題，那就是特朗普本人所在的政黨對普京有着截然不同的看法。但克里姆林宮不會滿足於其之前取得的成功。一旦特朗普進駐白宮，誰知道他會做些什麼？稱那時爲危險時刻，似乎都有些輕描淡寫了。