時事新聞:製造業好轉顯示全球經濟開始復甦
【英文原文】
Factory-Sector Gains Signal Global Recovery
The U.S., Asia and Europe made gains in manufacturing this summer, according to data released Tuesday that signal the global economy may grow faster for the remainder of the year than once expected.
In the U.S., the manufacturing sector grew for the first time since January 2008; the key gauge of this, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, rose to 52.9 from 48.9 the previous month, driven by improvements in new orders and production. Levels above 50 indicate growth. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers' index for China swung into expansionary territory in March -- well before other nations -- and has stayed there ever since, but Tuesday's reading of 54.0 for August show activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year. And Japanese industrial output rose 1.9% in July, beating expectations.
The positive signs come on the heels of another report Tuesday showing similar strength in Europe. Though still contracting, the euro-zone manufacturing purchasing manager index rose to 48.2 in August from 46.3 in July, a 14-month high. The improvement came on the back of gains in Germany and France, but Spain and Italy posted declines. The U.K. showed unexpected weakness, as the nation's manufacturing sector shifted into contractionary territory. August's reading came in at 49.7 from 50.2 a month earlier.
Economists and public policy officials credit massive global stimulus efforts with helping lead the march out of the deep recession. Now, they say, private demand must replace the boost to the global economy from the government's monetary and fiscal expansion.
Another big question haunting the global economy now is whether inflation will unexpectedly climb and push the world again into recession, said Mr. Suttle. Others factors that could affect both the strength and length of global growth are unemployment and consumers' reticence to spend.
Still, the August improvement in the U.S. is notable because many of the industries that improved aren't linked to automotive production. That signals an improvement in demand apart from the Cash for Clunkers program, which let people trade vehicles in for a credit toward more fuel-efficient models, helping boost consumer spending and manufacturing.
International Rectifier Corp., which manufactures power semiconductors, said demand and growth were particularly strong in China and Taiwan and the company noted 'encouraging signs of stabilization' in North America, in its earnings call last week. Europe and Japan were still hindered by challenges in the industrial automotive sector.
New orders were a driving force behind the manufacturing gains in the U.S., rising almost 10 percentage points to 64.9. Production and supplier deliveries, which tend to be tied to improvements in new orders, also rose.
In the midst of all the good news, hiring was still a weak spot in the U.S. manufacturing report. The index shows that employment was still contracting and some companies noted in their comments that layoffs were still ahead. Separate indicators released Tuesday showed mixed signs for the construction industry. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose to 97.6 in July from 94.6 in June. But construction spending fell 0.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than $958 billion compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said.
With hiring still struggling and housing working toward stabilization, healthier foreign economies could buoy the U.S. recovery. The manufacturing report's exports index climbed five percentage points to 55.5 in August.
China has pulled out of the global slump faster and more decisively than any other major economy, thanks to its enormous stimulus program. Now it grapples with a new set of worries that other economies will also have to face when they manage a return to growth. Having shown that the government can force through a short-term recovery, Chinese policymakers now face the challenge of sustaining an expansion over the longer term even while withdrawing official support.
The continued strength of the purchasing managers' index is a sign that China's economy still has momentum, after its gross domestic product surged an annualized 14.9% in the second quarter, according to a central bank estimate. Chinese demand has boosted machinery exports from Germany and Korea, and has been a particular boon to commodity producers like Brazil and Australia.
'With considerable economic policy stimulus in train around the world, the global economy is resuming growth,' Australia's central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, said in a statement Tuesday. 'The major economies appear to be approaching a turning point,' he said, crediting 'very strong' growth in China for aiding an expansion throughout Asia. The large economies of India and Indonesia have maintained relatively steady growth this year, but even export-dependent Hong Kong and Singapore rebounded in the second quarter.
China's growth came close to a standstill in the fourth quarter of 2008, but the manufacturing sector has come well back from those depths. Activity has been boosted by a nearly unprecedented wave of lending from state banks coupled with a rapid public-investment program. A government survey of industrial firms last December found 15% had wholly or partially stopped producing; the latest official update, which looked at 170,000 factories, found that proportion had shrunk to 7.2% in June.
Government spending has led the way this year, but there are signs corporate investment is picking up as well. BOE Technology Group Co. and a consortium of other Chinese state-owned enterprises said last week they will spend $4.1 billion to build a major new liquid-crystal-display factory in Beijing. Yet investments from non-state companies have lagged, and the government admits the recovery won't be on solid ground until private-sector spending takes over the lead.
Confidence remains fragile, and some of the initial euphoria over the stimulus has already evaporated. Despite continued reassurances from the government, the Shanghai stock market declined 23% in August as investors fretted over a slowdown in the pace of bank lending. Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday again reiterated, in a meeting with World Bank President Robert Zoellick, that the government's economic policies won't change direction. 'Beijing still faces the difficult task of managing liquidity conditions to avoid a bubble -- or a bust,' said Brian Jackson, an economist for Royal Bank of Canada.
The biggest boost from the government's massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is probably over: most economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to an annualized pace of 9% to 10% in the second half of this year. Chinese firms appear to have started restocking inventories earlier than companies elsewhere in the world, economists say. So while inventory building will likely help growth in the U.S. and Europe in the rest of 2009, it's unlikely to do much more to boost China's figures.
Still, China's stimulus now seems to be more than strong enough to meet the official target of an 8% expansion for 2009. Officials are still publicly cautious about the world economy, with exports still down 22% from last year, and have repeatedly said the policy to support growth hasn't changed. But government statements in recent weeks have focused more on longer-term issues like funding for small businesses and controlling excess capacity. That's where economists are looking for new measures that would help keep the recovery going into 2010.
【中文譯文】
根據週二發佈的數據，美國、亞洲和歐洲的製造業今年夏季都出現了回升，顯示全球經濟在今年剩餘時間裏的增速可能高於當初的預期。
跡象顯示經濟轉折點將至
新一輪的經濟數據顯示全球經濟正以超預期的速度復甦。但好勢頭會持續嗎？《華爾街日報》經濟編輯韋塞爾報道。在美國，製造業自2008年1月以來首次增長；備受關注的供應管理協會(Institute for Supply Management)製造業指數從上月的48.9升至52.9，主要受新訂單和生產改善的推動。指數高於50表明增長。與此同時，中國採購經理人指數3月份進入擴張區域，大大早於其他國家，此後一直保持在擴張區域中，但週二公佈的8月份採購經理人指數達到了54，顯示製造業活動出現了一年多以來最快速度的擴張。日本7月份的工業產值增長1.9%，也超出了預期。
週二的另一份報告也顯示出積極的信號：歐洲製造業也表現出類似的強勢。雖然仍處於收縮區，但歐元區製造業採購經理人指數從7月份的46.3升至8月的48.2，爲14個月新高。德國和法國的上漲推動了該指數的走高，但西班牙和意大利出現了下降。英國的表現出乎預料地疲軟，該國製造業轉到了收縮區域。8月的數據從上月的50.2降到了49.7。
經濟學家和公共政策官員確信全球大規模的刺激措施推動經濟走出了嚴重的衰退。他們說，現在民間需求必須接替政府的貨幣和財政擴張政策，擔當起提振全球經濟的重任。
國際金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)經濟研究全球負責人薩特爾(Philip Suttle)說，目前困擾全球經濟的另一個重大問題時通貨膨脹率是否會意外攀升，導致全球經濟再度陷入衰退。其他可能影響全球增長力度和持續時間的因素包括失業和消費者的支出意願不強。
不過，美國8月份數據的改善值得關注，因爲出現改善的很多行業都與汽車生產無關。這顯示舊車換現金計劃之外的需求也出現了上升，提振了消費支出和製造業。
半導體生產商International Rectifier稱，中國內地和臺灣的需求及增長尤爲強勁。該公司在上週的收益會議上指出，北美也出現了令人鼓舞的走穩跡象。歐洲和日本仍因汽車業的困難而步履蹣跚。
新訂單是美國製造業增長背後的主要推動力量，上升近10個百分點，達到了64.9。與新訂單改善有關的生產和供應商交付也出現了增長。
在所有這些好消息之外，就業仍是美國製造業報告的一個弱項。該指數表明，就業仍在收縮，一些公司在報告中表示仍在裁員。週二公佈的另外的數據顯示，建造業的情況好壞不一。全國地產經紀商協會(National Association of Realtors) 7月份成屋簽約銷售指數從6月份的94.6升至97.6。但美國商務部稱，7月份建築開支較上月下降了0.2%，經季節性因素調整後摺合年率爲9,580億美元。
由於就業狀況依然低迷，房屋市場正在趨穩，其他國家良好的經濟狀況有助於推動美國的復甦。8月份製造業報告中的出口指數攀升5個百分點，至55.5。
得益於規模龐大的刺激計劃，中國經濟比所有其他主要經濟體都更快更明顯地走出了全球經濟衰退。如今，中國面臨着諸多新擔憂情緒，其他經濟體在努力重返增長時也必須面臨相同的問題。中國政府已經表明，他們能夠強制推動經濟短期復甦，現在他們面臨着在撤回政府支持的情況下維持經濟長期增長的挑戰。
採購經理人指數的持續走高表明，中國經濟仍有增長動能。據央行估計，第二季度中國國內生產總值(GDP)摺合成年率增長了14.9%。中國需求已經給從德國到韓國的機械出口帶來了提振，一直是巴西和澳大利亞等大宗商品生產國的重要推動力。
澳大利亞央行行長斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)週二在一份聲名中表示，在全球紛紛推出大規模經濟刺激政策的推動下，全球經濟正在復甦增長。他說，主要經濟體似乎正在接近拐點，中國經濟增長勢頭非常強勁，帶動了整個亞洲經濟的增長。印度和印尼等亞洲主要經濟體今年維持了相當穩定的增長勢頭，甚至依賴出口的香港和新加坡經濟也在第二季度實現了回升。
去年第四季度，中國經濟增長几乎陷入停滯，不過中國製造業已經明顯走出了當時的低谷。得益於迅速推出的公共投資計劃，以及來自國有銀行幾乎史無前例的放貸熱潮，中國製造業活動獲得了極大提振。去年12月中國政府對工業公司進行的一項調查顯示，15%的企業已經全部或部分停產；不過，對17萬家工廠進行的6月份調查顯示，停產比例已經降低到了7.2%。
政府支出引領了今年中國經濟的復甦之路，但有跡象顯示企業投資也正在回升。京東方（BOE Technology Group Co.）和一個由中國其他國有企業組成的財團上週表示，他們將投資41億美元在北京新建一個液晶顯示器工廠。不過，私營部門企業的投資明顯相形見絀；中國政府承認，除非私營行業支出佔據上風，否則中國經濟復甦難有堅實基礎。
市場信心依然脆弱，最初對刺激計劃的一些熱情已經開始消退。雖然中國政府不斷安撫人心，但上證綜合指數8月份下挫了23%，主要是因爲投資者對銀行放貸步伐放緩感到緊張焦慮。中國總理溫家寶週二在與世界銀行行長佐立克(Robert Zoellick)的會談中再次重申，中國政府不會改變經濟政策方向。加拿大皇家銀行(Royal Bank of Canada)經濟學家傑克遜(Brian Jackson)表示，中國政府仍然面臨着管理流動性狀況，避免泡沫或泡沫破滅的艱鉅任務。
中國政府鉅額財政和貨幣刺激計劃帶來的最主要提振作用可能已經消散：大多數經濟學家預計，今年下半年中國GDP摺合成年率增速或將放緩至9%-10%。經濟學家們表示，與全球其他地區企業相比，中國企業似乎已經開始提前補充庫存。因此，企業補充庫存或將給今年餘下時間美國和歐洲經濟增長帶來提振，但已經不太可能給中國經濟數據帶來多少推動了。
不過，現在看來，中國刺激舉措似乎足以實現今年經濟增長8%的官方目標。鑑於出口仍然較去年下滑了22%，中國官員仍然對全球經濟表示公開擔憂，他們多次表示不會改變支持經濟增長的政策。不過，最近幾週中國政府的聲明主要專注於小企業融資以及控制過多流動性等較長期問題。經濟學家預計中國政府會在這些領域推出新舉措，推動中國經濟復甦勢頭在2010年得以延續。
