時事新聞:下半年經濟復甦還會是白日夢嗎?

【英文原文】

Searching For Recovery

摘要：大多數預測人士似乎都認爲經濟增長將在未來幾個季度持續疲軟，但會在2008年下半年回升到趨勢水平──雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)研究報告，2007年12月12日。

Most forecasters seem to expect growth to be weak for a few quarters, but then rebound back to trend in the second half of 2008... -Lehman Brothers research note, Dec. 12, 2007

What is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s will end in the second half of 2009. -Wells Fargo press release, Dec. 19, 2008

Calls for a 'second-half' recovery have been a common theme of this recession - and so far, have only underscored the degree to which forecasters underestimated the magnitude of this downturn. Indeed, rather than the second-half recovery originally expected last year, the credit crisis intensified, massive layoffs ensued, and by year-end the global economy was mired in its worst downturn since the Great Depression.

Yet even as the extent of the damage became clear, many economists, chief executives and investors have maintained that this year, conditions will improve in the second half and the recession (which began in December 2007) will finally draw to an end.

Today - July 1 - begins the second half of 2009. So is the recovery at hand?

The signs of improvement certainly are: home sales and prices are slowing their free-fall, jobless claims remain below their late-March record highs, gauges of business investment have risen, consumer confidence is on the rebound, and financial markets have steadied. The idea that the U.S. could swing toward GDP growth in the third or fourth quarter no longer seems like a pipe dream.

But last year held similar promise: after the collapse of investment bank Bear Stearns in mid-March and its quickie sale to J.P. Morgan, there was a period of relative calm through the early summer months. That optimism wound up being short-lived; it remains to be seen whether the second half of 2009 will also prove to be a grim reality check.

【中文譯文】

大多數預測人士似乎都認爲經濟增長將在未來幾個季度持續疲軟，但會在2008年下半年回升到趨勢水平──雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)研究報告，2007年12月12日。

目前這場上世紀三十年代以來幅度最深、時間最長的經濟衰退將在2009年下半年結束──富國銀行(Wells Fargo)新聞稿，2008年12月19日

關於下半年經濟復甦的說法已經成爲了這場經濟衰退迄今的一個共同主題，這隻說明了預測人士嚴重低估了此次經濟衰退。實際上，經濟非但沒有像原先設想的那樣在去年下半年實現復甦，信貸危機反而進一步加劇，導致大量人員失業，年底前全球經濟陷入了大蕭條以來最爲嚴重的下滑。

但即便問題變得日益明顯，諸多經濟學家、首席執行長和投資者仍然認定，今年下半年情況將有所好轉，始於2007年12月的經濟衰退將最終走向終結。

現在2009年下半年已經拉開了帷幕。那麼經濟復甦又如何呢？

狀況好轉的跡象顯然已經浮現：住房銷量和價格已經延緩了急劇下跌的步伐，申請失業救濟人數仍然低於3月底創下的歷史高點，商業投資的指標已經上揚，消費者信心正在回升，金融市場已經持穩。關於美國經濟有望在第三或者第四季度重新增長的說法已經不再看上去像是白日夢。

但去年也曾出現過類似的狀況：投資銀行貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns) 3月底崩潰並迅速出售給摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)之後，市場也曾出現一段相對平靜的時期，一直持續到夏季初。這種樂觀情緒沒能維持多久。今年下半年是否也會是個殘酷的考驗，這還有待時間來驗證。

【詞彙講解】

1. rebound vi. 彈回；反彈

The ball rebounded from his racket into the net.
球從他的球拍上彈回網中。

2. underscore vt. 劃線於……下，強調

to underscore(written matter) with a single line to indicate italics
在（寫的東西）下畫橫線來表示印刷時用斜體字

3. grim adj. 嚴酷的，無情的

His expression was grim when he told them they had lost their jobs.
當他告訴他們說他們已被解僱時, 他的表情十分冷酷。

【詞組講解】

on the rebound (從地上、牆上等)彈回之際或之後

He is still on the rebound from his wife's death.
他仍處在失去妻子的情緒波動之中。