杜特爾特對西方秩序的挑戰
In the past 30 years, a succession of Southeast Asian leaders was supposed to represent a new direction for regional geopolitics.
過去30年中，多位東南亞領導人相繼被認爲代表了該地區地緣政治的新方向。
First there was Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad. Then came Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia.
先是馬來西亞的馬哈蒂爾.穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohamad)，之後是泰國的他信.西那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra)和印度尼西亞的蘇西洛.班邦.尤多約諾(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)。
In the end, none was able to revamp the region and its relationship with the world.
到頭來，沒有一個人能改變該地區及其與世界的關係。
But Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines’ new president, may be the first Asian leader to ask the right questions about the future of the region.
但是菲律賓新總統羅德里戈.杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)或許是首位就該地區的未來提出正確問題的亞洲領導人。
He made headlines during a trip to Beijing last month by announcing his country’s separation from the US and a coming embrace with China.
杜特爾特上個月訪問北京時宣佈菲律賓與美國分離，未來將與中國建立緊密關係，他由此登上了頭條新聞。
Then he went to Japan, where he called for American troops to leave the Philippines within two years and assured the Japanese that he was not pursuing a military alliance with China.
之後他在訪問日本期間喊話美軍在兩年內撤出菲律賓，並向日本保證他不會尋求與中國建立軍事同盟。
Those outside the region have expressed shock at Mr Duterte’s words, and have deemed him naive at best, dangerous at worst.
該地區以外的人對杜特爾特的話深表震驚，他們認爲，說得好聽些，他是天真，說得難聽點，他很危險。
But this reveals an unwillingness to look beyond the western-led order, spearheaded by the US, as the natural state of things.
但是，這種看法本身就暴露出一種心態，除了以美國爲首的西方主導的秩序，他們不願把其他任何一種秩序看作自然的事物狀態。
Mr Duterte is raising questions about who has power, how it is wielded and what self-determination would look like for smaller nations.
關於誰擁有權力、權力如何被使用以及自主對小國來說意味着什麼，杜特爾特提出了一些問題。
Despite his penchant for blunt language, his different tack has already had results.
儘管他喜歡直言，但他截然不同的策略已經起到了效果。
Take the territorial dispute in the South China Sea.
以南中國海上的領土爭端爲例。
The administration of Benigno Aquino, Mr Duterte’s predecessor, rejected any compromise, arguing instead that history and legal precedent meant that it owned islands such as the Scarborough Shoal.
杜特爾特的前任、貝尼尼奧.阿基諾三世(Benigno Aquino III)政府拒絕任何妥協，認爲歷史和法律判例說明菲律賓擁有斯卡伯勒淺灘（Scarborough Shoal,中國稱黃巖島——譯者注）等島嶼的主權。
China, unsurprisingly, claimed that history and legal precedent supported its own claims.
不出意料，中國聲稱歷史和法律判例支持中方的領土主張。
As tensions increased, there was no evidence that Manila’s strategy was working, especially as the country aligned itself with the US, a prospect that is anathema to China.
隨着局勢日益緊張，當時沒有跡象表明馬尼拉方面的策略起到了作用，特別是菲律賓與美國站在一條線上引起了中國的反感。
By making his trip to Beijing, and eliciting a reciprocal great show of respect, Mr Duterte has done everyone a favour by cooling things down in the South China Sea.
通過出訪北京、彼此間大張旗鼓地互示尊重，杜特爾特讓南中國海的局勢平靜了下來，幫了所有人一個忙。
He also returned with billions of dollars in development aid and investment promises.
他還帶回了數以十億美元計的發展援助和投資承諾。
Last week, China quietly stopped blocking Filipino fishermen from accessing the Scarborough Shoal.
最近，中國悄然停止了阻止菲律賓漁民前往斯卡伯勒淺灘作業的行動。
If all it took was a few polite words and some common sense to defuse the situation, one wonders why no one thought to do it earlier.
如果想要緩和局勢所需要的只是一些禮貌的言辭和常識的話，人們會納悶之前爲什麼沒人想到這麼做。
Perhaps we can call this Asian-style diplomacy.
或許我們可以把這稱爲亞洲式外交。
China and the Philippines have a relationship far older than the Philippines’ relationship with the US, and one free of histories of colonialism.
中國與菲律賓的關係，要比菲律賓與美國的關係久遠得多，也沒有殖民歷史。
China is also re-emerging as the economic and cultural centre of East Asia.
如今中國也正再次崛起爲東亞的經濟和文化中心。
We can even understand Mr Duterte’s attitude to China using the Asian concept of face.
我們甚至可以從臉面這個亞洲概念來理解杜特爾特對中國的態度。
By heralding Beijing as the focal point for a different economic, political and cultural order, Mr Duterte accorded it a lot of prestige.
通過宣傳中國是一種不同的經濟、政治和文化秩序的焦點，杜特爾特讓中國大有面子。
And, in return, China is willing to support the new Filipino president, perhaps by receding from the issues that divide them.
反過來，中國願意支持這位菲律賓新總統，或許會擱下使兩國產生分歧的問題。
Many in the west — with their focus on credibility, rational interests and power as a zero-sum game — will always miss relationships based on prestige and mutual benefit.
西方很多人——他們注重可信性(credibility)、理性的利益和實力，當作一場零和遊戲——始終不能理解建立在威望和互惠基礎之上的外交關係。
The larger point is that the concept of Pax Americana is outdated.
從更廣泛層面來說，美國治下的和平(Pax Americana)的概念已經過時。
The world is increasingly abandoning the view of the US as the sole (and self-appointed) protector of global peace and prosperity.
世界正在逐漸拋棄美國是全球和平和繁榮的唯一（和自封的）保護者的觀點。
In fact, the idea that America should not be a world policeman resonates with large numbers of people in the US.
事實上，美國國內有很多人贊同美國不應該充當世界警察的觀點。
The world may want other countries to share that responsibility with the US or, perhaps, to replace it.
世界可能希望有其他國家與美國共同承擔責任，又或者取而代之。
Mr Duterte is the first in Asia to do something about it.
杜特爾特是亞洲第一個在這方面有所動作的領導人。
Just because the Philippines is turning away from an American-led order does not mean it is rejecting the west or the US.
菲律賓拒絕美國主導的秩序並不意味着它拒絕西方或美國。
Mr Duterte himself said that he is calling for a separation of foreign policy rather than a severance of ties.
杜特爾特本人稱，他呼籲外交政策的分離而不是斷絕關係。
Those who worry about Mr Duterte betray a belief that the Philippines and other Asian countries must choose between an affinity for the US and an affinity for China — and not, as perhaps would be best, express their self-determination by finding some affinity with both.
那些對杜特爾特感到憂心忡忡的人，透露出一種觀念，即菲律賓及其他亞洲國家必須在親美和親華之間做出選擇，不能——這或許最好——通過找到既親美又親華的立場來表達他們的獨立自主。
Since Mr Duterte’s visit to Beijing, one must assume that other Asian leaders are watching closely to see where he takes his country and the region.
杜特爾特訪華後，人們必然會想其他亞洲領導人正在密切關注他將把菲律賓和整個地區帶向哪裏。
His views on self-determination are shared by many who are resentful of being subservient in the hegemonic geopolitical system but have believed until now that they are helpless.
許多人痛恨自己在霸權主義的地緣政治體系中矮人一截，但一直以來都感到無能爲力，他們認同杜特爾特關於獨立自主的觀點。
The world order will change further as more leaders make the same choices as Mr Duterte.
隨着更多領導人做出像杜特爾特一樣的選擇，世界秩序將進一步改變。
Those used to the status quo should get used to it.
習慣於現狀的人應該適應這一點。
