杜特爾特與美中玩“貓鼠遊戲”

When Donald Trump recently invited Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to the White House, he signalled that he would take a different stance on relations with Manila from his predecessor, turning the page on a rocky period for two allies.

當唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)最近邀請菲律賓總統羅德里戈?杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)訪問白宮時，他示意自己將對與馬尼拉的關係採取較前任不同的立場，翻過這兩個盟國關係動盪的一頁。

Mr Duterte last year called Barack Obama a “son of a whore”. Yet the White House described his call with Mr Trump as “very friendly” and said the two countries’ alliance was “now heading in a very positive direction”.

杜特爾特去年曾稱巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)是“妓女的兒子”。而據白宮描述，杜特爾特與特朗普的通話“非常友好”，並表示兩國同盟“正朝着非常積極的方向邁進”。

Democrats and some Republicans accused Mr Trump of ignoring concerns about claims of extrajudicial killings in Mr Duterte’s war on drugs. Those concerns were heightened a few days later, when Rex Tillerson, secretary of state, told US diplomats that “in some circumstances if you condition our national security efforts on someone adopting our values, we probably can’t achieve our national security goals”.

有人稱杜特爾特的反毒戰爭中存在法外處決，這種說法引發了關切，民主黨人和部分共和黨人曾指責特朗普無視這些關切。過了幾天，這些關切進一步加劇，美國國務卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)對美外交官表示，“在某些情況下，如果你將某人接受我們的價值觀定爲我們國家安全努力的前提條件，那麼我們很可能無法實現我們的國家安全目標”。

Mr Tillerson was not referring specifically to the Philippines, but his comments came as Manila is improving its ties with China after years of tension over the South China Sea. The latest evidence of a shift came last week when the Chinese navy made their first port call to the nation in years and Mr Duterte said he was open to holding joint exercises with the Chinese military.

蒂勒森並不是在特指菲律賓，但他在發表上述言論時，馬尼拉正在改善與中國的關係。此前，菲中兩國因南中國海問題多年關係緊張。上週，中國海軍多年來首次訪問菲律賓港口，杜特爾特還表示他對與中國軍方舉行聯合演習持開放態度，這是兩國關係轉變的最新證據。

“It is definitely a shift and it takes some getting used to,” said a US official. “But?.?.?.?we think it is important for our own interests in the region for the Philippines to have good relations with China.”

一名美國官員表示：“這絕對是種轉變，需要一些時間去適應。但……我們認爲，菲律賓與中國的友好關係對我們自身在該地區的利益也很重要。”

The official said the US has maintained “very close security co-operation” with Manila even under Mr Duterte. The official added that while the Chinese ship visit was a “little more sensitive,” Washington was not that concerned about one joint exercise, although “if it was a signal of long-term change we might be worried”.

這名官員表示，即使在杜特爾特執政期間，美國與馬尼拉方面也保持着“非常密切的安全合作”。他還表示，雖然中國軍艦的造訪“有點敏感”，但華盛頓對聯合軍演並不感到關切，不過“如果這是長期變化的信號，我們可能會擔心”。

Since coming to power, Mr Duterte has accused the US of treating its former colony like a dog, ordered that joint military exercises with the US be scaled back, and announced a “separation” from Washington. At the same time, he has offered little resistance to Chinese activities in the South China Sea, despite a ruling in Manila’s favour by an international court last year.

自上臺以來，杜特爾特一直指責美國對待自己的前殖民地像對狗一樣，並下令縮減與美國聯合軍演的規模，宣佈與華盛頓方面“分道揚鑣”。與此同時，他對中國在南中國海的活動幾乎毫不反抗，儘管去年一個國際仲裁庭在這個問題上作出了有利於馬尼拉方面的裁決。

But Manila has not repudiated its 1951 mutual defence pact with the US or a visiting forces agreement between the nations. Delfin Lorenzana, the Philippines defence secretary, has stressed the importance of the alliance — in much the same way that James Mattis, the US defence secretary, has assuaged concerns among US allies around the world about Mr Trump’s words.

但馬尼拉方面沒有拒絕遵守1951年與美國締結的《聯防條約》，也沒有拒絕遵守兩國之間的《訪問部隊協議》。菲國防部長德爾芬?洛倫扎納(Delfin Lorenzana)強調了兩國同盟的重要性，美國國防部長詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)也用同樣的態度緩解了世界各地的美國盟友對特朗普言論的擔憂。

Ernie Bower, president of Bower Group Asia, a consultancy that focuses on Southeast Asia, said Mr Duterte understood the dangers of veering too far from the US and was conscious that his own military wanted strong US ties. He said Mr Duterte was playing a “careful cat and mouse game” to keep Washington on side as he engages with Beijing.

東南亞問題諮詢公司Bower Group Asia的總裁歐內斯特?鮑爾(Ernest Bower)表示，杜特爾特知道太過疏遠美國的危險，也意識到菲軍方想與美國保持緊密聯繫。鮑爾表示，杜特爾特正在玩一場“謹慎的貓鼠遊戲”，在與北京方面接觸同時也保持與華盛頓方面的同盟關係。

“Duterte has softened a little and used the US election to come back in with America a bit,” said Mr Bower. “While his popularity is very high, people in the Philippines have very high anxiety over China. Duterte knows that if he goes too far he will see his popularity dip.”

“杜特爾特的態度軟化了一點，並利用美國大選與美國重新走近了一點，”鮑爾表示，“他的支持率很高，但菲律賓人民在中國問題上憂心忡忡。杜特爾特知道如果他做得太過分，他的支持率會下降。”

Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said the US-Philippines relationship was “strained” because of the stance Mr Duterte has taken towards the US and because of his controversial approach to the Philippines’ drug problem.

美國參議院外交關係委員會(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)民主黨頭號人物本?卡丁(Ben Cardin)表示，美菲關係“緊張”的原因，是杜特爾特對美國採取的立場以及他對菲律賓毒品問題的備受爭議的處理方式。

“I am not so concerned about the relationship with China as I am with the relationship with the US. The language used against President Obama was very offensive,” said Mr Cardin, who has co-sponsored legislation to bar the US from giving equipment to the Philippines police, to try to urge Mr Duterte to stop human rights abuses.

卡丁表示：“與菲律賓同中國的關係相比，我更在意的是菲律賓同美國的關係。他對奧巴馬總統使用的字眼非常無禮。”卡丁曾聯合支持立法，禁止美國向菲律賓警方提供裝備，試圖敦促杜特爾特停止侵犯人權的做法。

During a visit to Washington last week, Enrique Manalo, the acting Philippines foreign minister, denied that the relationship was strained. “Our relations have been continuing in a very positive direction ever since the president [Duterte] came in,” he told the Financial Times.

在上週訪問華盛頓期間，菲律賓代理外長恩裏克?馬納洛(Enrique Manalo)否認美菲關係緊張。他告訴英國《金融時報》：“自總統（杜特爾特）上臺以來，我們的關係正繼續朝着非常積極的方向發展。”

Mr Manalo also played down the significance of the Chinese ship visit, saying the Philippines had “an open seas policy”, and suggested that there could be more on the horizon: “Well, it may not only be China. We had a Russian ship that visit us, the US ships, and I think even Japanese ships will be coming?.?.?.?We are trying to engage as many partners as we can on the basis of mutual benefit. I think there is really nothing unusual about that.”

馬納洛還淡化了中國軍艦造訪菲律賓港口的意義，他表示菲奉行“開放海洋政策”，還說未來可能會有更多類似的情況發生。“可能不僅僅是中國。俄羅斯的船也訪問過我們，還有美國的船。我認爲甚至連日本的船也會來……我們正努力在互利基礎上與儘可能多的合作伙伴接觸。我認爲這其實沒什麼不同尋常的。”

Amy Searight, a Southeast Asia expert at CSIS and top Pentagon official during the Obama administration, said Mr Duterte’s team had been “very skilful” in managing the alliance despite his rhetoric. But while relations between Washington and Manila may be headed for smoother waters, she said his rhetoric has created broader regional damage.

美國戰略與國際研究中心(CSIS)東南亞專家、曾在奧巴馬政府任期內擔任美國國防部高官的艾米?希爾萊特(Amy Searight)表示， 儘管杜特爾特發表了那樣的言論，但其團隊對菲美同盟的把握“很有技巧”。然而，儘管美菲關係可能正趨於緩和，但杜特爾特的言論給該地區造成了更廣泛的損害。

“When Duterte says things like he does not think that the US would honour its commitment under the mutual defence treaty?.?.?.?or says things like there is no use fighting China because they will do what they will do, it sends a very damaging message to the region and the deterrence value of the alliance is hollowed out,” said Ms Searight.

希爾萊特表示：“當杜特爾特表示，他認爲美國不會履行其在共同防禦條約中許下的承諾時……或者當他表示與中國對抗無用、因爲中國會該怎麼做還怎麼做時，都向該地區傳遞了一個非常具有破壞性的信息，同時讓菲美同盟成了一個缺乏威懾的空架子。”