可再生能源革命挑戰行業舊秩序大綱

HELIGOLAND, Germany — Of all the developed nations, few have pushed harder than Germany to find a solution to global warming. And towering symbols of that drive are appearing in the middle of the North Sea.

德國黑爾戈蘭島——幾乎沒有哪個發達國家會像德國這般賣力地尋求全球變暖的解決之道。現在，一些高聳的大傢伙作爲這項努力的象徵，出現在了北海中。

They are wind turbines, standing as far as 60 miles from the mainland, stretching as high as 60-story buildings and costing up to $30 million apiece. On some of these giant machines, a single blade roughly equals the wingspan of the largest airliner in the sky, the Airbus A380. By year's end, scores of new turbines will be sending low-emission electricity to German cities hundreds of miles to the south.

它們是風力渦輪機，屹立在距內陸60英里的地方，足有60層樓那麼高，每臺耗資達3000萬美元。這些機器都是龐然大物，有的光是上邊的一個葉片，大小就和天空中最大的客機——空客A380——差不多了。今年年底前，數十臺新安裝的渦輪機會給向南數百英里處的德國城市供應清潔電能。

It will be another milestone in Germany's costly attempt to remake its electricity system, an ambitious project that has already produced striking results: Germans will soon be getting 30 percent of their power from renewable energy sources. Many smaller countries are beating that, but Germany is by far the largest industrial power to reach that level in the modern era. It is more than twice the percentage in the United States.

這將是德國耗資巨大的電力系統改造工程的又一個里程碑。此項宏大的工程已經取得了驚人的成效：可再生能源對該國電力供應的貢獻率很快就能達到30%。這對很多小國而言可能不在話下，但迄今爲止，德國是近現代達到這一水平的工業國中最大的一個。30%的比例較美國高出一倍多。

Germany's relentless push into renewable energy has implications far beyond its shores. By creating huge demand for wind turbines and especially for solar panels, it has helped lure big Chinese manufacturers into the market, and that combination is driving down costs faster than almost anyone thought possible just a few years ago.

德國在不斷地推進可再生能源的開發利用，其影響遠遠超出了它的國界。通過催生出對風力渦輪機和太陽能板（尤其是後者）的巨大需求，它在將中國大型製造企業吸引到這個市場的過程中發揮了作用，由此產生的合力正讓成本飛速下降——幾年前根本沒人料到會降得如此之快。

Electric utility executives all over the world are watching nervously as technologies they once dismissed as irrelevant begin to threaten their long-established business plans. Fights are erupting across the United States over the future rules for renewable power. Many poor countries, once intent on building coal-fired power plants to bring electricity to their people, are discussing whether they might leapfrog the fossil age and build clean grids from the outset.

全球的電力公司高管們，眼睜睜看着一度被自己視作無關緊要的技術開始威脅到自家公司長期以來的經營方略，無不如坐鍼氈。美國各地都爆發了有關可再生能源電力未來規則的討論。許多曾打算通過建造燃煤發電廠來爲國民供電的窮國，眼下正探討是否可以跳過化石燃料時代，從一開始就構建清潔能源網絡。

A reckoning is at hand, and nowhere is that clearer than in Germany. Even as the country sets records nearly every month for renewable power production, the changes have devastated its utility companies, whose profits from power generation have collapsed.

清算的時刻到了，而德國的情況可能比任何地方都要明瞭。幾乎每個月，德國都會刷新可再生能源電力的生產紀錄，但與此同時，這些變化讓該國的公用事業公司損失慘重，來自電力生產的利潤一路狂跌。

A similar pattern may well play out in other countries that are pursuing ambitious plans for renewable energy. Some American states, impatient with legislative gridlock in Washington, have set aggressive goals of their own, aiming for 20 or 30 percent renewable energy as soon as 2020.

類似的情況很可能出現在其他那些正推行宏大的可再生能源規劃的國家。美國的一些州對華盛頓的立法僵局失去了耐心，已經自行設立了雄心勃勃的目標：在2020年之前就要讓可再生能源對電力供應的貢獻率達到20%至30%。

The word the Germans use for their plan is starting to make its way into conversations elsewhere: energiewende, the energy transition. Worldwide, Germany is being held up as a model, cited by environmental activists as proof that a transformation of the global energy system is possible.

德國人把自己的方案叫“能源轉型”(energiewende)，這個詞已經開始被其他國家和地區的一些人掛在嘴邊。德國被全世界奉爲楷模，環保人士常常以它爲例來證明，全球能源系統的轉型是可以實現的。

But it is becoming clear that the transformation, if plausible, will be wrenching. Some experts say the electricity business is entering a period of turmoil beyond anything in its 130-year history, a disruption potentially as great as those that have remade the airlines, the music industry and the telephone business.

但人們越來越清楚地看到，這種轉型即便可行，也會是一個痛苦的過程。一些業內人士稱，電力產業進入了它130年的歷史上最激烈的動盪期，它正迎來一場裂變，其影響可能堪比航空、音樂以及電話產業曾經發生的那些重塑產業格局的大裂變。

Taking full advantage of the possibilities may require scrapping the old rules of electricity markets and starting over, industry observers say — perhaps with techniques like paying utilities extra to keep conventional power plants on standby for times when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. The German government has acknowledged the need for new rules, though it has yet to figure out what they should be. A handful of American states are beginning a similar reconsideration of how their electric systems operate.

行業觀察人士表示，要充分利用這種可能性，也許就得拋開電力市場的舊有規則，重新規劃——大概還得作一些安排，比如向公用事業公司額外付費，讓其保留傳統發電廠備用，以應付風力和日照不足的情況。德國政府已經認識到了啓用新規則的必要性，儘管它還沒弄清新規則該是什麼樣。美國的少數幾個州同樣在重新思考本州電力系統的運行方式。

"It's pretty amazing what's happening, really," said Gerard Reid, an Irish financier working in Berlin on German energy projects. "The Germans call it a transformation, but to me it's a revolution."

“正在發生的一切真的十分驚人，”在柏林做德國能源項目的愛爾蘭投資人傑拉德·裏德(Gerard Reid)說，“德國人稱之爲轉型，但在我看來這是一場革命。”

The potential payoff for getting the new rules right is enormous: a far greener electricity system that does not pump as much greenhouse gas and other pollution into the atmosphere. Yet as the German experience shows, the difficulties of the transition are likely to be enormous, too, and it is still far from clear whether the system can be transformed fast enough to head off dangerous levels of global warming.

如果能正確地創建新規則，就有機會獲得巨大的回報：有一個更爲環保的、不再向大氣中排放那麼多溫室氣體以及其他污染物的電力系統。不過德國的經驗表明，轉型的困難同樣是巨大的；而且目前還遠遠不能確定該系統的轉型速度是否能快到足以防止全球變暖達到危險的程度。

"I am convinced that wind and sun will be the central sources of energy, not only in Germany but worldwide," said Patrick Graichen, who heads a think tank in Berlin, Agora Energiewende, devoted to studying the shift. "The question is: How can we turn the energy transition into a success story?"

“我相信，風和陽光將會成爲主要的能量來源，不光在德國，在全世界都是如此。”致力於能源轉型研究的柏林智庫阿哥拉能源轉型(Agora Energiewende)的負責人帕特里克·格賴興(Patrick Graichen)說，“問題是：我們怎樣才能讓這場能源轉型成爲成功的範例。”

Plummeting Prices

暴跌的價格

One recent day, under a brilliant California sun, saws buzzed as workers put the finishing touches on spacious new homes. They looked like many others going up in Orange County, south of Los Angeles, but with an extra feature: Lennar Corporation was putting solar panels on every house it built.

不久前的一天，在加利福尼亞州明媚的陽光下，工人們手拿嗡嗡作響的電鋸，給寬敞的新房加上最後的點綴。這些新房坐落在洛杉磯以南的奧蘭治縣，看起來跟當地的其他房屋沒有太大差別，但它們都有一個附加特性：萊納公司(Lennar Corporation)給自己蓋的每一棟房子都安裝了太陽能面板。

The prices of the panels have plunged 70 percent in the past five years. That huge decline means solar power is starting to make more economic sense, especially in parts of the United States with high electricity prices.

過去五年，太陽能板的價格大跌了70%。這種暴跌意味着用太陽能供電開始變得更加經濟了，尤其是在美國一部分電價較高的地區。

At about 100 Lennar subdivisions in California, buyers who move into a new home automatically get solar panels on the roof. Lennar, the nation's second-largest homebuilder, recently decided to expand that policy to several more states, starting with Colorado. The company typically retains ownership of the panels and signs 20-year deals to sell homeowners the power from their own roofs, at a 20 percent discount from the local utility's prices.

在加利福尼亞州約100個由萊納公司興建的住宅小區裏，買家搬進新房時，就自動獲得了屋頂的太陽能板。作爲美國第二大住宅建築商的萊納公司，最近決定從科羅拉多州開始，在其他幾個州推廣這種做法。該公司通常會保留這些組件的所有權，並和房主簽定爲期20年的合同，讓他們買下產自自家屋頂的電力，價格比當地公用事業公司的報價低20%。

"It's so simple when we tell a customer, 'You're guaranteed to save money,' " said David J. Kaiserman, president of Lennar Ventures, the division overseeing the solar plan.

這個太陽能計劃由萊納事業部(Lennar Ventures)負責，其總裁大衛·J·凱澤曼(David J. Kaiserman)說，“當我們告訴客戶‘包你省錢'時，事情就變得非常簡單了。”

The shifting economics can largely be traced to China, by way of Germany. Over the past decade, the Germans set out to lower the cost of going green by creating rapid growth in the once-tiny market for renewable power.

在很大程度上，這種經濟性變化是中國——在德國帶動之下——發揮作用的結果。過去10年間，德國人讓一度不成規模的可再生能源電力市場實現了快速增長，從而降低了走綠色之路的成本。

Germany has spent more than $140 billion on its program, dangling guaranteed returns for farmers, homeowners, businesses and local cooperatives willing to install solar panels, wind turbines, biogas plants and other sources of renewable energy. The plan is paid for through surcharges on electricity bills that cost the typical German family roughly $280 a year, though some of that has been offset as renewables have pushed down wholesale electricity prices.

德國已經在其能源轉型方案上投入了1400多億美元，並以固定收益誘惑有意安裝太陽能板、風力渦輪機、沼氣池等可再生能源設備的農民、屋主、企業以及當地的合作社。該方案的成本要通過徵收可再生能源電價附加費來彌補，一個普通德國家庭每年大約要繳納280美元，不過，由於可再生能源拉低了躉售電價，此項開支被抵消了一部分。

The program has expanded the renewables market and created huge economies of scale, with worldwide sales of solar panels doubling about every 21 months over the past decade, and prices falling roughly 20 percent with each doubling. "The Germans were not really buying power — they were buying price decline," said Hal Harvey, who heads an energy think tank in San Francisco.

德國的這一方案幫助擴大了可再生能源市場的規模，帶來了巨大的規模效應——過去10年，太陽能板的全球銷量每隔21個月就會翻倍，而銷量每翻倍一次，價格就會降低20%左右。“德國人投入重金，買的不是電，而是價格的下降。”舊金山一家能源智庫的負責人哈爾·哈維(Hal Harvey)說。

The ripple effects drove some American panel manufacturers out of business, prompting complaints about Chinese government subsidies to the manufacturers who seized much of the market. But the decline also created an opportunity for American homeowners and for companies like Lennar.

在這種連鎖反應下，美國的一些生產商被迫關門歇業，中國政府向佔據了很大一部分市場份額的本國廠商發放補貼之舉，引人抱怨。不過，價格的下降也爲美國的屋主以及萊納這樣的公司帶來了機會。

Wind power, too, has come down sharply in price in recent years, and it is now competitive with the cost of new coal-burning power plants in parts of the United States.

近年來，風電價格也大幅下降。目前，風電在成本上可以和美國部分地區新建的燃煤電廠匹敵。

A Threat to Business

企業面臨的威脅

The decline in the cost of renewable power spells potential trouble for companies that generate electricity. They make a lot of their money at times of day when demand for power, and therefore power prices, are high. Solar power, even a small amount, could be especially disruptive, shaving wholesale prices during those peak periods.

可再生電力成本的下降，對電力生產企業構成了威脅。讓這些企業大賺特賺的，是一天當中電力需求大、電價也隨之升高的時段。而太陽能就算規模不大，也有可能給市場帶來極大的衝擊，把用電高峯期的躉售電價拉下來。

Though growing rapidly, solar power still accounts for less than 1 percent of American power generation, so the disruption has not yet been seen on a large scale in the United States. But some utilities, fearful of losing out as the power mix changes, have started attacking rules that encourage solar panels. Others are taking the opposite tack, jumping into the solar market themselves.

儘管光電產業發展得很快，但光電產量在美國電力總產量中所佔的比重還不到1%，因此美國市場尚未受到大規模的衝擊。不過，有的公用事業公司擔心自己因電源結構的變化而遭受損失，已經開始攻擊那些鼓勵使用太陽能面板的規則了。另外一些公司則採取了相反的策略，乾脆投身到了光電市場之中。

Nipping at the heels of those utilities are fast-growing start-up companies that are putting tens of thousands of panels on rooftops and leasing them to homeowners for no money down, with Wall Street banks providing the financing. The hot spot is California, which is aiming for 33 percent renewable power by 2020 and seems increasingly likely to get there.

緊隨這些公用事業公司之後的，是高速成長的初創公司，它們正把數以萬計的太陽能板安在人們的屋頂上，並和屋主簽下無需付押金的租約，爲其提供資金支持的是華爾街的銀行機構。加利福尼亞州被捲入了這股熱潮之中，該州計劃在2020年之前把可再生能源電力上網比重提高到33%，現在看來，實現這一目標的可能性正逐步加大。

In Germany, where solar panels supply 7 percent of power and wind turbines about 10 percent, wholesale power prices have crashed during what were once the most profitable times of day. "We were late entering into the renewables market — possibly too late," Peter Terium, chief executive of the giant utility RWE, admitted this spring as he announced a $3.8 billion annual loss.

在德國，太陽能面板和風力渦輪機的發電量分別佔總發電量的7%和10%，一度最有利可圖的用電高峯期的躉售電價已經大幅下降。公用事業巨頭萊茵集團(RWE)的首席執行官彼得˙特里烏姆(Peter Terium)於今年春天宣佈該集團虧損了38億美元時承認：“我們進入可再生能源市場的時間有些晚——也許是太晚了。”

The big German utilities are warning — or pleading, perhaps — that the revolution cannot be allowed to go forward without them. And outside experts say they may have a point.

德國的這些大型公用事業公司提醒說——也許可以稱之爲懇求——這場革命要想進行下去，就得帶上它們。外部專家稱，他們的話或許有點道理。

The Achilles' heel of renewable power is that it is intermittent, so German utilities have had to dial their conventional power plants up and down rapidly to compensate. The plants are not necessarily profitable when operated this way, and the utilities have been threatening to shut down facilities that some analysts say the country needs as backup.

可再生能源有一個致命的弱點，即供電的間歇性。因此，德國的公用事業公司不得不通過迅速調高或調低傳統發電廠的發電量來保持供需平衡。以這種方式運營的傳統發電廠未必有利可圖，公用事業公司一直揚言要關閉這些電廠，但有分析人士認爲德國需要用它們來應對不時之需。

The situation is further complicated by the government's determination to get rid of Germany's nuclear power stations over the next decade, the culmination of a long battle that reached its peak after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. As that plan unfolds, shutting down a source of low-emission power, Germany's notable success in cutting greenhouse gases has stalled.

由於德國政府決意放棄核能，情況變得越發複雜。2011年日本福島核泄漏事故發生後，在德國存在已久的核電站存廢之爭終於有了結果：該國政府宣佈將用10年時間關閉國內的核電站。隨着這一計劃的實施，清潔電能的一個來源將被切斷，德國在溫室氣體減排方面取得的令人矚目的成績已經停滯不前。

In fact, the problems with the energiewende (pronounced in-ur-GEE-vend-uh) have multiplied so rapidly in the past couple of years that the government is now trying to slow down the transition. "I think we need a little bit of time," said Jochen Flasbarth, a deputy minister of the environment.

事實上，能源轉型帶來的問題在過去幾年裏迅速增多，以致於德國政府正竭力放緩轉型的腳步。“我認爲我們還需要一點點時間，”德國環境部副部長約亨·弗拉斯巴斯(Jochen Flasbarth)說。

Technological Innovation

技術創新

As renewable energy sources start to cause gyrations in power supplies and prices, experts contend that clever new market rules could keep the costs reasonable.

可再生能源開始讓電力供給和價格產生波動之際，有專家認爲，如果新建立的市場規則足夠明智，應該可以把成本控制在合理範圍內。

Some of the innovations they recommend are already in use to some extent — pioneered in the United States, with Germany avidly studying them. They include regular payments to persuade utilities to keep some fossil-fuel power plants on standby for times when renewable sources lag.

他們所推薦的一些新制度，在某種程度上已經得到了應用——這些制度是由美國率先實施的，德國正在積極研究。其中包括定期付費給公用事業公司，令其保留一些化石燃料發電廠，在可再生能源短缺時作應急之用。

"It's like a retainer you pay your lawyer to keep her around in case you need her," said Jay Apt, an electricity expert at Carnegie Mellon University.

“就好比你向你的律師支付聘金，以確保她在你需要的時候一定會出現，”卡內基梅隆大學(Carnegie Mellon University)的電力專家傑伊·阿普特(Jay Apt)說。

For Germans, the unpredictability of onshore renewable power explains the appeal of offshore wind. The stiff, steady breezes in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea mean that turbines built there will produce far more power than land turbines.

對德國人而言，由於內陸地區可再生能源電力的產量存在不可預測性，海風的吸引力便顯現了出來。北海和波羅的海上空的風力強大而穩定，意味着安裝在那裏的渦輪機在發電量上遠遠高於內陸地區的渦輪機。

That is why three utilities have virtually seized control of the tiny resort island of Heligoland, renting out one hotel for 10 years straight. It is the most convenient body of land to use as an operations base for the huge wind farms they are installing, with long-range plans to go as far as 125 miles offshore.

正因爲如此，三家公用事業公司差不多算是把黑爾戈蘭島給佔領了，直接與這個度假小島上的一家酒店簽下了10年的租約。它們正按照長期規劃建設風電場，一直要建到距海岸125英里遠的地方，而黑爾戈蘭島是最適合用來做行動基地的一片陸地。

The streets of the island are thronged with well-paid workers. "Really, all areas on Heligoland are profiting," declared Eike Walenda, the manager of a local outfitter and fueling station.

小島的街道上擠滿了待遇優厚的工人。“真的，黑爾戈蘭島每個地塊都在獲益，”當地一家兼售戶外用品的加油站的經理艾克瓦·倫達(Eike Walenda)說。

The costs of building in the sea are far higher than on land, of course. The price tag of up to $30 million per turbine is not just for the machine itself, but also for power cables, installation and many other items. To induce utilities to go forward, the government has had to guarantee them power prices of several times the market rate.

當然了，海上風電場的建設費用遠高於陸地上的費用。每臺渦輪機高達3000萬美元的身價不僅僅是機器本身的價格，還包含了電纜費、安裝費等好多項費用。爲了吸引公用事業公司參與這樣的項目，德國政府不得不答應它們把電價提高到市價的好幾倍。

But, just as with earlier forms of renewable technology, the Germans expect the costs of harnessing offshore wind to drop sharply as the market grows over the coming decade. If that happens, the United States could be a big beneficiary. Studies have shown that offshore wind could supply as much as 15 to 20 percent of the power needed by East Coast cities, and construction is about to start on a handful of American projects.

不過，德國人預計在未來10年裏，海風發電的成本可以隨着市場規模的增長而大幅下降——就像早期的那些可再生能源發電技術那樣。要是成本真降下來，美國也許會成爲受益者。有研究表明，海風發電可爲東海岸城市供應其所需電量的15%至20%；而且美國的幾個項目很快就要開工建設了。

For now, the German offshore farms are adding billions to the costs consumers are already bearing for solar panels, onshore wind turbines, biogas plants and the rest of the transition to renewable energy. Polls suggest it is a burden they are willing to carry.

德國消費者已經爲太陽能板、內陸地區的風力渦輪機、沼氣池，以及向可再生能源時代過渡所需的其他一切承擔了高昂的成本，現在，他們又要因海風電場而多承擔數十億美元。民意調查顯示，他們樂意擔起這副擔子。

"Indeed, the German people are paying significant money," said Markus Steigenberger, an analyst at Agora, the think tank. "But in Germany, we can afford this — we are a rich country. It's a gift to the world."

“事實上，德國民衆正付出高昂的代價，”能源智庫阿哥拉能源轉型的分析師馬庫斯·施泰根貝格爾(Markus Steigenberger)說，“但在德國，我們能夠承擔得起——我們是富裕國家。這是我們給世界的禮物。”