從深港通看投資者微妙情緒大綱

Judging investors’ mood towards China can be a tricky exercise. If you assess the reaction to the landmark announcement of a direct trading link between exchanges in Shenzhen and Hong Kong that will for the first time allow international investors to bet on Chinese technology groups, it looks bearish.

判斷投資者對中國的情緒可能很難。如果你要評估投資者對里程碑式的“深港通”宣佈開通的反應，他們似乎是看空的。深港通是深圳與香港兩地交易所之間的直接互聯互通，將使國際投資者首次可以直接投資中國科技企業。

A week on from the news, Shenzhen and Shanghai markets are lower, while analysts’ views on Hong Kong Exchanges — which would be the biggest direct beneficiary of a planned link — are their gloomiest in more than three years.

自消息公佈一週以來，滬深股市持續走低，分析師對香港交易所的悲觀情緒達到三年多以來最高水平，而港交所將是深港通計劃最大的直接受益者。

Yet follow the money trail and the mood is more nuanced. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong have gained more than 10 per cent in the past two months, putting them among the top 10 performers in the world.

但追蹤資金軌跡就會發現，市場情緒要更加微妙。過去兩個月，香港上市的中概股漲幅已超10%，躋身全球前十。

It has also been one of their best showings since the rally and subsequent rout in mainland China last year. Hong Kong indices mostly reflect international money, and some of it seems ready to warm to China again.

這也是去年中國內地股市暴漲又暴跌後，這些中概股的最佳表現之一。香港股指主要反映國際資金，其中部分資金似乎已準備好再次讓中國升溫。

There is some explanation for the contrasting pictures. The opportunity presented by the trading link with Shenzhen isn’t quite the same as betting on China via the state-backed companies that dominate the stocks available in Hong Kong.

這種對比畫面有一些解釋。投資在港上市股票中占主導地位的國有企業，從而獲得的投資中國的機會，與深港通提供的機會是不太一樣的。

And, frankly, there should have been more excitement about the creation of the world’s second-largest pool of equity capital by linking China’s three trading hubs for the first time.

而且坦白講，對於將中國三大股票交易中心首次聯通到一起創造全球第二大股權資本池，投資者應該感到更多興奮。

Some of the lacklustre response to the Shenzhen news can be put down to scepticism that anything in China billed as a milestone will actually be one — or provide moneymaking opportunities.

對深港通消息的部分低迷反應可以歸結爲一種懷疑情緒——懷疑在中國任何被標榜爲里程碑的事物是否名副其實、或者是否能提供賺錢機會。

There has also been an effort among commentators to avoid a repeat of the enthusiasm that greeted the Shanghai version of the trading link that launched in November 2014.

另外，有些評論者一直在努力避免重複對2014年11月滬港通開通給予的熱情。

Then, bankers predicted investors would reach the scheme’s overall trading limits in days as brokerages’ research teams scrambled to hire the best analysts of A-shares — or those traded in mainland China — reportedly doubling their price in the process.

當時，銀行家們預計投資者會在幾天內達到滬港通整體交易限額，各大券商的研究團隊爭着聘請最優秀的A股分析師，據報道在此過程中他們開出的價碼翻了一倍。

In fact, mainlanders have used only about four-fifths of their overall quota and international investors heading into stocks in Shanghai just two-fifths.

實際上，內地投資者僅使用了他們總額度的約五分之四，投資上海股市的國際投資者僅用了五分之二的額度。

In spite of all this, there are reasons to be excited about Shenzhen. Generating interest in Hong Kong and Shanghai shares can be tough. Both are dominated by Chinese financials, state-owned enterprises and in Hong Kong, too, tycoon-controlled empires.

儘管如此，仍有理由對深圳感到興奮。讓投資者對在香港和上海上市的股票產生興趣可能很難。主導兩地股市的都是中資金融機構、國有企業，在香港還有巨頭控制的企業集團。這些都不是投資者夢寐以求的。

None of these are the stuff of investor dreams. More than one analyst admits Tencent, a rival to New York-listed Alibaba, is about the only Hong Kong large-cap company investors consistently ask about.

不止一位分析師承認，騰訊(Tencent)——紐約上市的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的競爭對手——大概是投資者不斷諮詢的唯一香港大盤股。

Hong Kong’s recent rally is a sign that a sliver of optimism about China is returning. Since Chinese shares tend to trade outside the mainland at lower valuations, there is an element of arbitrage in the gains.

香港股市最近的反彈表明，對中國的樂觀看法正在迴歸。由於中概股在內地之外的交易估值往往較低，所以存在套利獲益的因素。

But even that suggests fewer investors worrying the mainland Chinese economy is about to implode as feared during January’s turmoil.

但這也顯示出，投資者不再像今年1月股市動盪期間那樣擔憂中國內地經濟即將崩潰。

Shenzhen stocks far more closely represent “new China” — the online, 4G-enabled companies tapping into consumer growth that investors are interested in.

深圳股市更能夠代表“新的中國”——投資者感興趣的、依靠互聯網和4G技術挖掘消費增長的公司。

Three behemoths outside Shenzhen — Alibaba, Tencent and China Mobile — account for more than half of so-called New China’s representation in the MSCI China index, according to Francois Perrin, a portfolio manager at East Capital.

East Capital投資組合經理弗朗索瓦•佩蘭(Francois Perrin)表示，深市之外的三家巨頭——阿里巴巴、騰訊和中國移動(China Mobile)——佔MSCI中國指數(MSCI China Index)中“新的中國”權重的一半以上。

Until mainland shares are included in MSCI indices that dominance will not change. However, opening Shenzhen to direct trading for foreign investors will make it easier for those who don’t track the index so closely to go off-piste and find other ways to bet on China.

在內地股市被納入MSCI指數之前，這種主導局面不會發生變化。然而，深市交易直接對外國投資者開放，將使得那些並不密切追蹤MSCI指數的投資者更容易另闢蹊徑，找到押注中國的其他方式。

They will have to rootle about: the average market cap in the southern city is half that of Shanghai, meaning there are far more mid- and small-caps to consider.

他們將不得不仔細尋寶：深市公司的平均市值只有滬市的一半，這意味着有更多的中小盤股可以考慮。

Both markets are dominated by retail investors, whose preference for fast-moving smaller stocks has helped push valuations higher in Shenzhen.

滬深兩市都以散戶投資者爲主，他們對快速漲跌的小盤股的偏愛推高了深市股票的估值。

Taking a wait-and-see approach to a pricey rollercoaster market is understandable. And any view less than outright bearish on China still requires guts in the current environment.

對一個高價且波動劇烈的市場採取觀望態度是可以理解的。在當前的環境下，任何不是完全看空中國的觀點都仍然需要勇氣。

But it isn’t every day a market this large opens up. The link is scheduled to be running by the end of the year. Now’s the time to look closely at what’s on offer.

但是，不是每天都有這麼大的市場開放。深港通計劃在今年年底之前開通。現在是時候密切關注它能帶來什麼了。