問投資者:巴寶莉做錯了什麼?大綱

When investors are feeling bullish about life, they consider Burberry a luxury goods company. That is one reason it has offered a total return of 125 per cent over the past five years, more than twice as much as rivals such as Tod's or LVMH. When they are feeling bad – as they were on Wednesday – they consider it a retail chain. Shares of the fashion group fell 7 per cent despite what appeared to be another impressive three months (April to June) of sales growth. Considering that Britain's miserable summer looks tailor-made for Burberry's raincoats, that seems odd. In fact, it fits a recent trend.

當投資者對人生感到樂觀時，他們會把巴寶莉(Burberry)視爲一家奢侈品公司。這是爲何過去5年期間其股票的總回報率高達125%、超過競爭對手如Tod's或LVMH兩倍多的原因之一。而當他們感覺不好時（正如本週三那樣），就會把它當成一家連鎖零售商。這家時尚集團的股價下降了7%，儘管4月至6月三個月的總體銷售增長再度令人印象深刻。鑑於英國陰雨綿綿的夏天彷彿是爲巴寶莉德雨衣量身定做的一般，這顯得蹊蹺。事實上，它與近期趨勢是吻合的。

There is nothing fundamentally wrong at the group. It has 500 stores (a mix of wholly owned, concessions, outlets and franchises) in all the right places: four stores in Brazil, for example. It is planning for 100 in China in the medium term, with three flagship stores in Shanghai. In the April to June period, Burberry reported strong growth in the UK, Germany, France and China. Group underlying sales growth was 11 per cent, bringing total revenue in the three months to £410m; growth on the retail side, which accounts for two-thirds of Burberry's revenue, was even stronger at 14 per cent.

該集團沒有任何根本上的問題。它有500家門店分佈在所有合適的地方（包括全資擁有、特許經營、批發和專營）：例如在巴西有4間門店。它正計劃中期在中國設立100家，包括三家位於上海的旗艦店。在4月至6月期間，巴寶莉報告在英國、德國、法國和中國都實現強勁增長。集團基本銷售增長11%，推動三個月總營收達4.1億英鎊；而零售增長（佔巴寶莉總營收的三分之二）更爲強勁，達14%。

The company's continued focus on growth still looks justifiable, whatever the jitters about the global economy. Annual sales growth at its wholly owned Chinese stores is about 20 per cent, though the picture is more mixed in the US, where Burberry has been moving up market since 2006.

該公司對增長的持續關注，看來仍是合理的，無論人們對全球經濟如何感到恐慌。在其全資擁有的中國門店，年銷售額增長約爲20%，儘管美國的情況更復雜些，自2006年起，巴寶莉在美國向高端市場轉移。

Burberry's problem is not growth but valuation. Past success has bred high expectations of management; anything that smacks of less than relentless forward momentum in underlying earnings gets punished. Burberry's growth rate has been slowing for a couple of quarters now. Some of that is priced in: its share price has fallen 25 per cent since mid-April. The tumble on Wednesday looks like more of the same. Its shares now trade at a forward price/earnings multiple of about 17 times. That is in line with the luxury sector, which is where for the moment it belongs.

巴寶莉的問題不是增長，而是估值。過去的成功培養了人們對管理層更高的期望；基本盈利迅猛增長的勢頭只要有一點鬆懈，就會受到懲罰。現在巴寶莉的增長速度已連續兩個季度放緩。其中一部分已在股價中得到反映：4月中旬以來已下跌25%。週三的暴跌看起來也是同樣性質。其股價意味着預期市盈率約爲17倍。這與奢侈品行業一致，它暫時仍屬於這一板塊。