投資者看好中國技術超美潛力

A young Chinese company built around voice-recognition technology this week announced it would soon begin marketing its smartwatch in the US, taking on Apple. It won’t just undercut Apple on price but offer a product with features that investors in the company say is as cool as Apple’s design.

一家以語音識別技術爲核心技術打造起來的年輕中國公司本週宣佈，不久後將開始在美國市場上銷售自己的智能手錶，與蘋果(Apple)一較高下，不但售價將低於蘋果，而且據該公司投資者表示，擬推的一款產品設計得與蘋果一樣酷。

For the past few decades, the US has considered itself the technological leader of the world. However, China may now be closing the gap across a variety of sectors, from drones and electric cars to data-mining and smartphones.

幾十年來，美國一直自視爲科技領域的世界領袖。然而，從無人機和電動汽車到數據挖掘和智能手機，中國在許多領域或許正在逐漸縮小與美國之間的差距。

With questions about demand for Tesla’s electric cars and the corporate governance of Elon Musk, its founder, following the company’s purchase of SolarCity, some fund managers in Shanghai are rubbing their hands in glee. They expect BYD, the Chinese electric carmaker, to benefit.

在特斯拉(Tesla)收購SolarCity之後，圍繞特斯拉電動汽車的需求以及創始人埃隆•馬斯克(Elon Musk)的公司治理問題，投資者發出了質疑，對此上海一些基金經理興奮得直搓手，他們預計中國電動汽車生產商比亞迪(BYD)將從中獲益。

They have faith in BYD despite the fact that its shares are expensive — trading at 40 times earnings — and its profits rely partly on government subsidies and privileges such as the free licence available for electric vehicles.

他們對比亞迪有信心，儘管其股價已經偏貴——市盈率達40倍——並且其盈利部分依賴於政府補貼以及電動汽車享受免費牌照等特權。

“The electric vehicle revolution will happen first in China,” says Wei Zhang, founder of Yuanhao Capital Management in Shanghai, who has a big position in the stock.

“電動汽車革命將率先在中國發生，”上海元昊投資管理公司(Yuanhao Capital Management)創始人張煒說。他持有很多比亞迪的股票。

“The first signal is that supply is unable to meet demand,” Mr Zhang said in his mid-July letter to investors, explaining his bullishness to his investors. “The second signal is leading technology. They have their own battery, (while Tesla relies on Japanese maker Panasonic). Their batteries are cheaper and More advanced. The third signal is that management interests are aligned.” Moreover, Mr Zhang notes, the company has introduced a stock ownership plan with the execution price 30 per cent higher than the current market price.

“第一個信號是供不應求，”張煒在7月中旬致投資者的信中說。他向投資者解釋了自己樂觀的理由。“第二個信號是領先的技術。它們擁有自己的電池（而特斯拉依賴日本製造商松下(Panasonic)）。它們的電池更便宜、更先進。第三個信號是管理層利益一致。”此外，張煒指出，比亞迪有一項員工持股計劃，行權價比當前股價高30%。

Electric cars are not the only sector in which the Chinese are making inroads. Last winter, Palantir, the US private data-mining company in Palo Alto, California, came to Asia and received a warm reception. It was warmer than it had recently received in its own home market, easily commanding a valuation over $20bn.

電動汽車並非中國企業正在開疆拓土的唯一領域。去年冬天，美國加州帕洛阿爾託(Palo Alto)一傢俬人所有的數據挖掘公司Palantir到亞洲融資，受到了熱烈歡迎，甚至超過了近期在美國本土市場受到的歡迎，輕鬆獲得逾200億美元的估值。

But at the same time, venture capitalists in China are investing in their own Palantir-like big data firms.

但同時，中國的風險投資家們也在投資於國內類似於Palantir的大型數據公司。

For example, Sequoia Capital China is backing Fourth Paradigm, a Beijing company whose founder has not studied in the US, but has the confidence typical of a new generation of artificial intelligence specialists on the mainland that can critique Palantir’s business model and explain why theirs is superior.

例如，紅杉中國(Sequoia Capital China)就投資了北京的第四範式(Fourth Paradigm)。這家公司的創始人不曾在美國留過學，但具有一種自信，這種自信常可見於中國大陸新一代的人工智能專家身上，他們會批評Palantir的商業模式，並解釋爲何自己的商業模式更優越。

Among the advantages these Chinese start-ups have is access to far more data than their US counterparts. “China can do at least as well as the US because AI needs data and China has more data,” said the founder of Fourth Paradigm.

這些中國創業企業的優勢之一，是它們可以接觸到比美國同行更多的數據。“中國起碼可以做得跟美國同樣好，因爲人工智能需要數據，而中國擁有更多數據，”第四範式創始人說。

In other areas, such as drones, China has leapfrogged the US. Moreover, many of its fintech companies are more diversified and interesting than their US counterparts.

在無人機等其他一些領域，中國已經超越了美國。此外，中國許多金融科技公司的業務比美國同行更加多元化、更有趣。

In some ways the gap between the US and China is still considerable. Baidu’s search engine, for example, is considered so mediocre that it has become a competitive disadvantage for China compared with Google which remains banned in the mainland.

在某些方面，中美之間的差距仍很大。比如，中國的搜索引擎百度(Baidu)被認爲太平庸了，跟谷歌相比，該公司就成了中國的競爭劣勢。目前，谷歌在中國大陸仍被封殺。

Baidu’s disappointing financial results last week reflect more serious difficulties than the criticism it received this year after a young man died of cancer having received dubious medical treatment advertised in online search results. What’s more, media deals these days are still mostly one way: western content in return for Chinese audiences.

百度今年曾廣招批評，起因是一名患有癌症的年輕人因按照百度搜索結果中的廣告接受不可靠的治療而死亡，然而該公司在上週發佈的令人失望的財報反映了更爲深重的困境。此外，媒體領域的併購大多仍是單向的：以西方內容換取中國受衆。

Technology in China is undergoing a correction though not to the extent it is in the US, which is one reason why Palantir came to Asia in the first place.

在中國，科技領域正在經歷一場調整，儘管程度不如美國，這正是Palantir首先前往亞洲融資的原因之一。

While industrial profits in China have picked up of late after contracting in 2015, profits in the computer, communication and other electronic equipment led by smartphones, jumped almost 20 per cent, according to the latest data from JPMorgan. Consolidation among internet companies is also helping profitability in China’s technology sector.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)的最新數據顯示，經過2015年的收縮之後，近期中國的工業利潤有所好轉，而計算機、通信和其他電子設備製造業的利潤更是大增了近20%，其中增長最多的是智能手機。互聯網企業之間的整合也有助於提高中國科技行業的盈利能力。

Part of the Chinese enthusiasm for US tech companies is that they have more faith in the dollar than in their own currency. That may not change any time soon, but faith in their own technology on the part of mainland investors will probably continue to grow.

中國人青睞美國科技企業，部分原因在於他們對於美元的信心大於對本國貨幣的信心。這種情況短期內或許不會改變，但中國大陸投資者對本國技術的信心很可能將繼續增強。