深港通會受國際投資者青睞嗎
There are few things like a bull market to turn an investor’s head.
沒多少東西能像牛市一樣衝昏投資者的頭腦。
Just look at China.
看看中國就知道了。
Having slumped almost 50 per cent from its peak last June to a low in early January, the benchmark CSI 300 Index is now up 20 per cent.
基準股指滬深300指數(CSI 300)去年6月見頂後，大幅下挫近50%，在今年1月初跌至最低點，到現在又上漲了20%。
The memory-erasing qualities of this year’s rally in Shanghai will soon be given a real test as a trading link between Hong Kong and the stock market in Shenzhen will make it far easier for investors to gain exposure to the shares of Chinese companies listed on the mainland.
隨着香港和深圳股市互聯互通機制將使投資者能夠更爲方便地投資中國內地股票，上海股市今年上漲行情所體現出的好了傷疤忘了痛的特性很快將面臨一場真正的考驗。
The link to the Shenzhen market, or Stock Connect, as it’s known, could open as early as next week and, together with an existing trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai, will be the only direct route available for foreign investors to trade mainland stocks without prior approval from authorities in Beijing.
深港通最早可能在下週啓動，它和現有的滬港通將是境外投資者不必事先經過中國主管部門批准、可直接買賣中國內地股票的僅有渠道。
So will foreign investors be lining up to buy?
那麼，境外投資者會踊躍購買嗎？
Shenzhen versus Shanghai
深市vs滬市
The drawcard for Shenzhen is greater access to some of China’s most sought-after technology companies, with some analysts viewing this as one reason Shenzhen’s appeal could easily rival, if not exceed, that of Shanghai, whose bourse is dominated by state-owned enterprises and older industrial businesses.
深圳的一大優勢是這裏聚集了多家最受追捧的中國科技公司，一些分析師認爲這是深圳市場的吸引力即使不超過上海市場也與之相當的一個原因，後者上市企業的主體是國企和舊經濟領域的企業。
You look at the Shenzhen SME board, the ChiNext board and they are expensive, but you cannot deny quite a lot of the new interesting Chinese tech companies and new start-ups have started to come to these two markets, said Vincent Chan, head of China macro research at Credit Suisse.
你看看深市中小板(SME)和創業板(ChiNext)，它們都不便宜，但你無法否認，大量新興的令人感興趣的中國科技公司和新興創業企業都開始來到這兩個板塊，瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)中國宏觀研究主管陳昌華(Vincent Chan)說。
For foreign investors, I would say Shenzhen is more important than Shanghai right now.
對境外投資者而言，我會說，目前深市比滬市更重要。
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange, just over the border from Hong Kong, has become the nexus for the listed technology, consumer and healthcare companies that are at the forefront of China’s new economy.
位於香港對岸的深交所，已成爲科技、消費和醫藥行業上市公司的聚集地，這幾個行業處於中國新經濟領域的前沿位置。
While ChiNext, a market with lighter listing standards, played host to some of bubbliest companies during the 2015 boom and slump, with some trading on four-figure price earnings multiples.
創業板的上市標準相對寬鬆，2015年中國股市大起大落期間一些泡沫化最嚴重的股票就在創業板掛牌，其中一些個股的市盈率達到了四位數。
Indeed, to begin with the 200 ChiNext stocks that can be traded will only be offered to institutional investors, not retail, because of their high-risk nature.
實際上，由於該板股票的高風險特點，深港通啓動初期，可供交易的200餘隻創業板股票僅面向機構投資者，散戶不能買賣。
In total, the link with Shenzhen will add 880 stocks to the 567 already available to foreign investors through the Shanghai link.
總的來說，目前境外投資者通過滬港通可投資567只中國內地股票，深港通將再爲他們奉上880只。
International exposure to China
國際投資者持有多少中國股票
So far most foreign exposure to mainland Chinese companies has come through those listed in New York or Hong Kong.
到目前爲止，境外資金對中國內地企業的敞口，主要來自對在紐約或香港上市的公司的投資。
As recently as early 2016, foreign ownership of Shenzhen A-shares, or those listed on the Chinese mainland, was less than 1.2 per cent, according to data from China’s securities regulator.
中國證券監管機構的數據顯示，2016年初，外資持有深圳A股的比例不到1.2%。
That is a fraction of foreigners’ 46 per cent share in Hong Kong, 26 per cent in Japan, or even 23 per cent in Russia.
這跟香港的46%、日本的26%、俄羅斯的23%相比微不足道。
Even including Shanghai, international investors account for only 2 per cent of investment in mainland markets.
即使把滬市包括在內，國際投資者在中國內地股市的投資比例也只佔到2%。
The two Connect schemes will cover an estimated 80 per cent of China’s mainland market capitalisation, handing foreign investors almost full access to the A-share market through Hong Kong.
滬港通和深港通將覆蓋中國A股總市值的約80%，幾乎完全向境外投資者打開了借道香港進入A股市場的通道。
Turnover in Shenzhen in the first nine months of the year was $9tn, the fourth-highest in the world, according to data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and World Federation of Exchanges.
深交所和世界交易所聯合會(World Federation of Exchanges)的數據顯示，今年頭9個月深交所的成交額達9萬億美元，排在全球第四位。
Steven Sun, head of China and HK equity strategy at HSBC, thinks that despite high valuations of the Shenzhen A-shares, which to some extent can be justified by higher growth, better liquidity and a small-cap premium there are two main reasons to invest in the market.
匯豐銀行(HSBC)中國股票策略主管孫瑜(Steven Sun)認爲，儘管深圳A股的估值水平較高，高成長性、較強流動性和小型股溢價從一定程度上證明這是合理的，但有兩個主要原因說明這個市場值得投資。
Firstly, it has the lowest correlation to global equities compared to the Shanghai A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market and secondly, the high dispersion of returns means more stock-specific risks and more alpha opportunities for active managers.
首先，與上海A股和港股相比，它與全球股市的關聯度最低，其次，股票投資回報率的高度分散，意味着對主動型基金經理來說，風險更多與個股相關，也會有更多的阿爾法機會。
‘Southbound’ flows and the renminbi
南下資金流和人民幣
Investors and analysts will also be watching southbound flows through the Connects — those from Chinese mainland investors into Hong Kong —
投資者和分析師還會關注通過滬港通和深港通南下的資金流，也就是中國內地投資者投向香港的資金。
Which can act as a hedge against renminbi depreciation even though the Connect’s closed loop means investors buy or sell in their starting currency.
儘管這種聯通機制的封閉循環意味着投資者買賣股票只能用該機制的啓動貨幣人民幣，南下資金流仍可以作爲人民幣貶值的一種對衝機制。
The depreciation of the renminbi has had a tremendous impact on Stock Connect flows this year, according to Nicole Yuen, head of Greater China equities at Credit Suisse.
根據瑞信大中華區證券部主管袁淑琴(Nicole Yuen)的說法，今年人民幣貶值對滬港通資金流產生了巨大影響。
So-called southbound purchases from the mainland picked up in the second half of this year as the renminbi’s decline gathered pace, with investors favouring high-yielding stocks and dual-listed names in Hong Kong that were trading at sizeable discounts to their Shanghai cousins.
今年下半年，隨着人民幣貶值加快，來自中國內地的所謂南下買入勢頭見漲，投資者偏好高收益股票和兩地上市企業的H股，這些股票相比滬市的A股存在較大折扣。
Likewise, northbound purchases cooled as international investors became less bullish about China after the bursting of the 2015 bubble and angst about the growth outlook.
另一方面，在2015年股市泡沫破裂、對中國增長前景開始感到不安之後，國際投資者不再像過去那樣看多中國，北上的買入活動也隨之降溫。
The 30-day average of northbound purchases is now about a quarter of the average Rmb6.25bn ($917m) reached at the peak last summer.
如今，北上買入規模的30天平均值，大約是去年夏天峯值時期平均62.5億元人民幣（合9.17億美元）規模的四分之一。
At the moment I would say one of the main reasons for the increased southbound flow is because of the expectation of the depreciation and the more subdued interest into the northbound flow again is also due to the market expectation the renminbi may go down further, Ms Yuen said.
袁淑琴表示：就眼下來說，南下資金流增長的主要原因之一，是由於對人民幣貶值的預期，而對北上買入的興趣降低，也是人民幣會進一步貶值的市場預期導致的。
Steps in the right direction
正確的政策措施
Underlying all the interest in Shenzhen is how the trading links allow direct access in and out of China - a key sticking point for MSCI, the index provider which this year cited the inability to easily sell shares as a reason for its decision not to include A-shares in its widely-tracked stock indices.
在對深市全部投資興趣的背後，一個深層問題是滬港通和深港通將在多大程度允許直接買進、賣出中國股票，這是明晟(MSCI)將A股納入其指數的關鍵癥結所在。這家指數提供商今年決定不將A股納入旗下被廣泛跟蹤的股票指數，並提到一個原因是A股的股票無法輕易地轉手賣出。
Running alongside the Connect schemes is the QFII, or qualified foreign institutional investor schemes.
與滬港通和深港通並行的還有合格境外機構投資者(QFII)機制。
These require Beijing to individually approve each investor, which is a lengthy proocess and does not allow investments to be repatriated at will.
這種機制需要北京方面逐一地批准投資者，這是個漫長的過程，而且也不允許隨意撤回投資。
QFII was the preferred option for international investors, but since the renminbi depreciation and the abolition of the aggregate quota, Stock Connect has become a more popular choice, said Christina Ma, head of Greater China equity sales at Goldman Sachs.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)大中華區股票交易主管Christina Ma表示：QFII曾是國際投資者更偏愛的選項，不過自人民幣貶值和取消總配額以來，滬港通已成爲更受歡迎的選擇。
