上海逐漸擴大開放程度 境外投資者期盼"滬港通"

If proxy indicators are to be trusted, investors will welcome with a bang a key further opening of China’s Shanghai stock market to foreigners next month, writes James Kynge.

如果各項代理指標值得信任，那麼滬市下月向境外投資者進一步開放將受到熱烈歡迎。

Several portents of a rousing reception await the launch of the “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect”, which is set to offer Hong Kong and foreign investors with offshore renminbi (CNH) the most unfettered access yet to the Shanghai market.

跡象顯示，“滬港通”的啓動將受到熱烈歡迎。這一項目將讓持有離岸人民幣(CNH)的香港和海外投資者在進入滬市方面享有迄今最大的自由。

Investors availing themselves of CNH have helped drive the currency’s three-month interbank rate to a 2014 high of more than 3 per cent in recent days, up from 1.5 per cent in June.

近日來，投資者踊躍持有離岸人民幣，將3個月人民幣同業拆借利率從6月的1.5%推高至逾3%的2014年高點。

The price gap between the Hong Kong-listed and Shanghai-listed shares of mainland companies with dual listings has narrowed sharply as arbitrage intensifies.

隨着套利活動的加劇，在香港和上海兩地上市的內地公司的H股和A股價差近來急劇縮小。

Some financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, have had to shut Chinese exchange traded funds (ETFs) to new investment because of capacity constraints.

因爲吸納能力有限，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)等一些金融機構近來不得不關閉中國交易所交易基金(ETF)，不再吸收新投資。

The chart below shows a narrowing gap between the share prices of the 47 mainland companies with listings in both Shanghai and Hong Kong. An index value of 100 denotes parity in pricing – at Wednesday’s close it stood at 97.

下面的圖表顯示出47家在上海和香港兩地上市的公司H股和A股價差不斷縮小。這一指數以100表示零價差，截至週三收盤時其數值爲97。

Analysts have observed strong interest from investors around the world in the scheme, which is expected to be launched in October, although Beijing has yet to fix a firm date.

分析師們發現，世界各地的投資者對“滬港通”項目興趣濃厚。這個項目預計將於10月啓動，儘管北京方面還未敲定啓動日期。

The scheme creates pressures to reorganise global investing.

“滬港通”帶來重組全球投資的壓力。

One pressure it exerts is upon the vendors of global stock indices, such as MSCI, which face a choice between diluting their influence if they do not accept A-shares into their indices and diluting their standards if they do.

其中之一是對摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)等全球股指提供商構成壓力，讓它們面臨兩難：不將A股納入股指，將削弱它們的影響力；將A股納入股指，將降低它們的標準。

Another force to be unleashed by the Shanghai-Hong Kong link is for the further internationalisation of the offshore renminbi.

“滬港通”將帶來的另一影響是推動離岸人民幣進一步國際化。

The biggest inhibiting factor in the redback’s march toward acceptance as a global currency has been the paucity of investment opportunities.

投資機會的稀缺一直是阻礙人民幣成爲全球貨幣的最大不利因素。