歷史車輪上曾經最強盛的五個經濟帝國

You hear quite a lot these days about America’s decline.
近來人們都聽到了很多有關美國衰落的言論。
It’s perhaps inevitable that Americans are worried about their place in the world, after suffering through a massive financial crisis, a tepid recovery, two decades of no wage growth, and a constant stream of news coming from rising China, a nation of 1.3 billion people with seemingly limitless potential.

也難怪美國人會對他們在世界上所處的地位感到憂慮：先是遭遇了一場大規模的金融危機，隨後是緩慢的經濟復甦，工資二十年來停滯不前；與此同時，從正在崛起的中國又不斷傳來各種消息——這個擁有13億人口的國家看上去擁有無盡的潛力。
And it’s true that, by any measure, America’s relative power is in decline.
而事實上，無論按照何種標準來衡量，美國的相對實力的確正處於衰落之中。
But looking at the American situation in the context of the broad sweep of world history, it’s amazing how dominant America has become, economically speaking. For Most of human history, the most powerful economic powers, or those that produced the largest share of global economic output, were simply the countries that housed the most people and controlled the most land. One of the reasons for this is that industrialization is a very recent phenomenon. Up until about 300 years ago, economies across the world were mainly agricultural, with most of the value produced from the land.
但是，如果放在世界歷史進程這一大背景下進行審視，美國的情況仍然值得我們讚歎：這個國家竟然能在世界經濟中取得如此重要的地位。因爲在人類歷史上的大部分時間裏，頂尖的經濟強國，或者說那些在全球經濟產出總量中佔據最大份額的國家，大多是擁有最多人口並且控制着最多土地的國家。原因之一在於，工業化直到近幾個世紀纔開始出現。直到大約300年以前，世界各地的經濟都多以農業爲主，大部分的價值都由土地創造。

Nevertheless, certain civilizations developed huge advantages against their rivals. Economic historian Ian Morris says that for most of human history, a civilization’s economic strength depended largely on when it experienced an agricultural revolution. From there, it would take a nation thousands of years to turn itself into a true economic powerhouse. That is, until the industrial evolution upended everything. Here, in chronological order, are the five most powerful economic empires of all time:
然而在這個過程中，某些文明卻取得了競爭對手難以企及的優勢地位。經濟史學家伊恩•莫里斯指出，在人類歷史的大部分時間裏，一個文明社會的經濟實力在很大程度上取決於當地農業革命發生的時間。在此之後，一個國家還需要花費數千年的時間，才能變成一個真正的經濟強國。也就是說，要等到產業的演進顛覆了一切之後纔有可能實現。下面將按照時間先後順序，列出史上最強盛的五大經濟帝國：
1. The Roman Empire, circa 100 AD: 25 to 30% of global output
1. 羅馬帝國，公元100年前後：佔全球經濟產出總量的25%-30%
Rome was the distant descendant of the very first agricultural revolution, which took place in modern-day Iraq. Rome rose quickly from a small republic to a dominant global empire in a matter of centuries. It cemented its status as a superpower in a series of wars, known as the Punic Wars, with Ancient Carthage. These conflicts gave Rome complete dominance of the Mediterranean Sea, a body of water that enabled trade to flow easily from the economically vibrant areas of the empire, like the city of Rome and Egypt.
羅馬是全球首次農業革命（發生在如今的伊拉克境內）的間接產物。在短短數百年的時間裏，羅馬就從一個小小的共和國，迅速崛起成一個舉足輕重的全球帝國。通過與古迦太基（Ancient Carthage）進行的一系列戰爭——史稱“布匿戰爭”（Punic Wars），羅馬鞏固了自己的超級大國地位。這些衝突讓羅馬獲得了地中海地區的絕對統治，這處水域讓羅馬城和埃及等充滿經濟活力的地區可以方便的進行對外貿易。

As economists today know, trade is a vital ingredient for economic growth, and the Romans were better at it during their height than anybody else. There is also evidence that the Romans had a sophisticated financial system that made extensive use of bank notes and other forms of credit, which enabled traders to forgo hauling precious metals across long distances.
當今的經濟學家們都知道，貿易是經濟增長的一大要素，而鼎盛時期的羅馬人比任何人都擅長貿易。此外，有證據表明，羅馬人還擁有一套完善的金融體系，廣泛使用銀行票據及其他形式的信貸商品，讓商人不用再遠距離運送貴金屬。
2. The Song Dynasty in China, circa 1200 AD: 25% to 30% of global output
2. 中國宋朝，公元1200年前後：佔全球經濟產出總量的25%-30%
Agriculture came later to China than it did in the modern-day Middle East. But by the time Chinese civilization made good use of the benefits of agricultural society, around 1200 AD, they had created one of the most magnificent civilizations the world had ever seen. Some scholars, like Ronald A. Edwards, an economic historian of China’s Song Dynasty at Tamkang University, argues that it was China, not England, that experienced the world’s first industrial revolution. He draws on research conducted by Japanese and Chinese scholars that shows that China experienced per capita economic growth at the same time that its population grew, something Europe wouldn’t achieve for hundreds of years.

中國開始發展農業的時間要晚於現在的中東地區。但是到了公元1200年前後，當中華文明充分發揮出農業社會的種種優勢時，他們已然創造出了史上最爲輝煌的文明之一。有些學者，比如在臺灣淡江大學研究中國宋代史的經濟史學家羅納德•愛德華茲認爲，世界上最早經歷第一次工業革命的國家應該是中國，而不是英國。他的依據是中日兩國學者進行的研究，這些研究表明，當時中國在人口增長的同時，也經歷了人均經濟產出的增長，而歐洲在幾百年之後都沒有做到這一點。
3. Mughal Empire in India, circa 1700 AD: 25% of global output
3. 印度莫臥爾帝國，公元1700年前後：佔全球經濟產出總量的25%
Indian civilization is one of the oldest in the world, and many empires have risen and fallen on the subcontinent throughout the centuries. But among its most economically vibrant was the Moghul Empire, which dated from the sixteenth century until the establishment of the British Raj in the middle of the 19th. According to the late economic historian Angus Maddison, the per capita output of Mughal-era India was likely about the same as in England or France at the time, but “India had a ruling class whose extravagant lifestyle surpassed that of the European society.” This was achieved, however, “by subjecting the population to a high degree of exploitation.”
印度文明是世界上最古老的文明之一，而且多個世紀以來，已經有許多帝國在印度次大陸上盛衰沉浮。但其中經濟最有活力的要數莫臥兒帝國，其統治時間始於十六世紀，一直持續到十九世紀中葉，英國在印度建立殖民統治爲止。已故經濟史學家安格斯•麥迪森曾指出，莫臥兒王朝時代的印度人均經濟產出，很可能與當時的英國或法國相差無幾，但是“印度統治階層生活的奢侈程度超過了歐洲社會的統治階層”，但是這是通過“對印度人民進行沉重剝削而實現的”。

Though European traders who visited India during this time were impressed by the Mughal court, which Maddison describes as “one of the most brilliant in the world,” with its walled castles, gardens, fountains, literature, and painting, the Indian people were uninterested in the goods Westerners had to trade, beyond gold. Such a dynamic fueled the plunder of the newly discovered Americas for its wealth of precious metals. This persisted throughout the Mughal era, as European explorers began to insinuate themselves further into Indian society. The Mughal empire slowly decayed amid the rise of the industrialized British Empire, which officially colonized the subcontinent in the middle of the 19th century.
在這段時間裏，來到印度的歐洲商人無不對莫臥兒王宮印象深刻——麥迪森稱這裏是“世界上最光彩奪目的王宮”，它擁有諸多圍牆城堡、花園、噴泉、藏書和名畫。但是，除了黃金之外，印度人對西方人用來交易的貨物都不感興趣。這種貿易關係促使西方國家紛紛涌向新發現的美洲大陸，去掠奪大量的貴金屬。這種狀況在整個莫臥兒王朝時代都持續存在，同時，歐洲人也開始滲透進印度社會。在工業化的大英帝國崛起之際，莫臥兒帝國慢慢地衰敗了下去。十九世紀中葉，大英帝國在印度次大陸正式建立殖民地。
4. The British Empire, circa 1870: 21% of global output
4. 大英帝國，1870年前後：佔全球經濟產出總量的21%
For most of human history, economists have very little evidence to estimate historical GDP. But all that changes once we get to the height of the British Empire, where extensive tax and other records make the job a bit easier. The British are also the first empire on the list that dominated the globe economically without strictly controlling an equally large percentage of the global population. Britain’s advantage came from the huge technological boost of the industrial revolution, as well as its aptitude for profiting from its colonial possessions. At the height of the British Empire, about 6% of its total output came from its colonies, more than any other Western power.

對於人類歷史長河上的大部分時間，經濟學家都沒有足夠信息，來估算出各國曆年的國內生產總值（GDP）。但是到了大英帝國鼎盛時期，情況發生了變化，當時留下了大量的稅收記錄及其它記錄，都爲經濟學家提供了參考。此外，在本文列出的這五大經濟帝國當中，大英帝國也是第一個在沒有控制同等比例人口的情況下，就在經濟上稱霸全球的國家。大英帝國的優勢來自於工業革命對科技產生的巨大推動力，以及它從衆多殖民領地中攫取利益的能力。在大英帝國的鼎盛時期，該國的經濟總產出約有6%來自於殖民地，這一比例要高於任何其它西方大國。
5. The United States of America, circa 1950: 50% of global output
5. 美國，1950年前後：佔全球經濟產出總量的50%
By the end of World War II, the U.S. produced half of the world’s economic output, by some estimates. However, that statistic is a bit misleading. It’s not that America was twice as dominant at its height than other states on this list. After all, America was only briefly this dominant, due mostly to the fact that most of the developed world’s economies had been destroyed by World War II. Yes, America likely became the world’s largest economy in the late 19th century on the strength of its large population, vast natural resources, and entrepreneurial spirit. But its total economic dominance in the middle of the last century was a product of the war.
據某些估算數據顯示，第二次世界大戰結束時，美國的經濟產出已經達到全球總量的一半。不過，這個統計數字有點容易讓人誤解。這並不是說，美國巔峯時期的經濟實力比其他四大經濟帝國高出兩倍。畢竟，美國登上這一霸主地位爲時尚短，而且它的成功在很大程度上是因爲，大部分的發達經濟體都因第二次世界大戰而崩潰。是的，鑑於美國人口衆多、自然資源豐富並且富有開拓精神，該國本就有希望在十九世紀後期成爲全世界最大的經濟體。但在上世紀中葉，美國在經濟上佔據的霸主地位只是第二次世界大戰的產物。

Since that time, America’s relative power has been on the decline, not because of slow growth at home, but because the rest of the world is catching up. But as you can see, this follows a broad historical pattern: economic revolutions occur in one part of the world, and then spread elsewhere. Kings of the economic hill are difficult to unseat, and are usually only overthrown following massive conflicts, or because of some economic revolution elsewhere. Britain gained its status because of the industrial revolution, which enabled it to smash through the growth ceiling that agricultural economies faced. “We may face a similar ceiling for fossil fuel societies,” says Ian Morris, “and if the same historical rhythms keep playing out, then the only way to get through that will be that we also have to revolutionize the way we do things.”
自那時以來，美國的相對實力一直呈現衰落的態勢，這並不是因爲美國國內經濟增長放緩，而是因爲世界其他國家正在迎頭趕上。但是，如你所見，這遵循的正是一種普遍的歷史發展模式：經濟革命在世界上的某個地方發生，然後蔓延到其他地方。全球經濟霸主的地位很難撼動，通常只有在發生大規模衝突之後，或者由於其他地方發生某種經濟革命，纔會被推翻。英國之所以贏得了經濟帝國的地位，全因工業革命讓它能夠衝破農業經濟所面臨的經濟發展天花板。伊恩•莫里斯說：“我們現在的礦物燃料社會可能也會面臨類似的天花板。而如果歷史繼續呈現同樣的發展節奏，要突破這種經濟增長天花板的唯一途徑，就只有徹底地改變我們發展經濟的模式。