中國銀行業整頓表外融資

Chinese bank regulators are wresting the punchbowl from lenders drunk on off-balance sheet funding. To rehydrate, securities issuance rather than strong green tea, a traditional hangover cure, is required. Some of the palliatives, such as convertible bonds, could be good pick-me-ups for investors too.

中國的銀行監管機構正從被表外融資的酒灌醉的銀行手中奪下潘趣酒碗。想補充水分的銀行需要的是證券發行，而不是傳統的醒酒劑——很濃的綠茶。一些權宜之計，如可轉債，對投資者來說也可能是不錯的提神飲料。

China’s top regulators aim to curtail key shadow banking practices by 2019. Maturity mismatches between off-balance sheet assets and liabilities, as well as implicit guarantees offered on wealth management products backed by risky investments, are among their concerns.

中國最高監管者的目標，是到2019年削減關鍵的影子銀行業務。表外資產與負債之間的期限錯配，以及對高風險投資支撐下理財產品的隱性擔保，都是讓監管者感到擔憂的問題。

New rules make it tougher to extend maturities on such products and could force them on to the balance sheet. Credit Suisse thinks such shadowy assets could cause total loans to exceed deposits at Minsheng and Citic Bank. Joint stock banks as a group could see their tier one capital diluted by an average of 51 basis points, causing some to sink towards their regulatory minimum. Larger banks are thought to be more insulated.

新規使得延長此類產品的到期日變得更困難，並可能迫使它們進入資產負債表。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)認爲，這些影子資產可能導致民生銀行(Minsheng)和中信銀行(Citic Bank)貸款總額超過存款總額。股份制銀行整體的一級資本(tier one capital)充足率平均可能被稀釋掉51個基點，致使某些銀行的這一比率逼近監管下限。規模較大的銀行據信受此影響將更小。

Even so, the coming years will see a flood of issuance to fortify balance sheets. Just last week, Agricultural Bank of China issued Rmb100bn ($15.8bn) of shares to state investors. Rules prohibit share issuance below book value, which means share prices tend to rally once they have exceeded that level. Investors seem to reason it is better to be diluted than get wiped out in a bank collapse.

即便如此，未來數年，我們仍將看到銀行大量發行證券，以加固資產負債表。就在上週，中國農業銀行(ABC)向國有投資者發行了1000億元人民幣（合158億美元）的股票（規則禁止股票發行價低於賬面價值，這意味着一旦市淨率低於1，股價就會回升）。投資者似乎認爲，權益被稀釋也要好過在銀行倒閉中變得兩手空空。

Bonds that convert to stock at a price above book value offer participation in such accelerated gains — and some protection on the downside. Last year Everbright Bank issued Rmb30bn of convertibles. Yields on those bonds are negative, but future issues could yield more, if rates increase and banks crank up borrowing.

以高於帳面價值的價格轉換成股票的債券，提供了搭上收益加速這班車的機會——也在一定程度上起到託底的作用。去年，光大銀行(Everbright Bank)發行了300億元人民幣的可轉債。那些債券的收益是負的，但如果利率上升，各銀行加大資金借入，那麼未來發行的可轉債可能會帶來更高的收益。

Equity investors should stick with the biggest banks. Fixed-income aficionados should keep an eye on the market for convertible bonds — and drink only the weakest tea to soothe their jangling nerves.

股票投資者應該堅守大型銀行。固定收益產品的狂熱愛好者應該關注可轉債市場——只喝最淡的茶來舒緩他們緊張的神經。