IMF 美聯儲可能引發超級縮減恐慌
The Federal Reserve’s first interest rate rise risks triggering a jolt to bond markets that could surpass the turMoil the central bank inadvertently set off in 2013, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告稱，美聯儲(Fed)的首次加息舉措可能會觸發債券市場震盪，其程度可能會超過這家央行2013年在不經意間引發的那場動盪。
José Viñals, the director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, warned of a “super taper tantrum” and spiking yields as the US central bank gets nearer to lifting rates from near-zero levels. “This is going to take place in uncharted territory,” he said in an interview.
IMF貨幣和資本市場部門負責人喬斯•維納爾斯(José Viñals)警告稱，隨着美聯儲趨向於從接近零的水平加息，市場將出現“超級縮減恐慌”，債券收益率將飆升。他在一次採訪中表示：“這將發生於未知領域。”In its Global Financial Stability Report, out yesterday, the IMF argued that risks had not only risen worldwide, but that they had rotated to parts of the financial world that were harder to monitor — including to the non-bank sector.
IMF在昨日發佈的《全球金融穩定報告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中提出，風險不僅已在全球各地上升，而且已轉向一些更難監督的金融領域，包括非銀行領域。
Among the key worries are “severe challenges” brewing in the EU life insurance sector amid plunging interest rates in the region. Many policies are offering generous return guarantees that are “unsustainable” in a prolonged low-interest rate environment, the IMF warned, highlighting German and Swedish firms.
一個重要的擔憂是在歐盟(EU)利率大幅下滑之際，該地區壽險行業正在醞釀“嚴峻挑戰”。IMF警告稱，很多保單在長期低利率環境下提供“不可持續”的慷慨回報保證，特別是德國和瑞典的壽險公司。Speculation about the impact of the first Fed rise in nearly a decade is dominating global markets. As things stand, markets are pricing in a lower trajectory for rate increases than Fed officials in the face of signals from the central bank that “lift-off” is looming this year.
關於美聯儲近10年來首次加息影響的猜測，目前籠罩着全球市場。就眼下而言，面對美聯儲釋放的信號（今年將大幅加息），市場目前計入的加息軌跡低於美聯儲官員的預測。In the report, the IMF said a sudden rise of 100 basis points in 10-year Treasury yields was “quite conceivable” once the market woke up to the possibility of the first rise in rates in nearly a decade. “Shifts of this magnitude can generate negative shocks globally, especially in emerging market economies,” it said.
IMF在報告中稱，一旦市場清醒地意識到近10年來首次加息的可能性，10年期美國國債收益率突然上升100個基點是“相當可能的”。IMF表示：“如此大幅度的變化可能對全球造成負面衝擊，特別是對新興市場經濟體。”Higher US interest rates could expose particular vulnerabilities in emerging markets where companies have issued large amounts of debt in dollars, the IMF said, adding that between 2007 and 2014 debt had grown faster than gross domestic product in all major emerging markets. Mr Viñals also laid out a scenario which he called a “Yellen conundrum” in which the central bank is forced to tighten policy more sharply than planned because longer-term interest rates do not respond to rises in the Fed’s target range. “This exit is a lot more complex to figure out, and this is behind the uncertainty that there is in the markets,” he said.
IMF表示，美國加息可能暴露出企業發行了大量美元債務的新興市場的特別脆弱性。IMF補充稱，2007年至2014年，所有大型新興市場的債務增速都超過國內生產總值(GDP)。維納爾斯還提出了他所稱的“耶倫難題”(Yellen conundrum)：美聯儲被迫以比計劃更大的幅度收緊貨幣政策，因爲較長期利率沒有對美聯儲目標區間上調作出反應。他表示：“把握這次的退出要複雜得多，這是目前市場不確定性背後的原因。”
