油價下跌引發能源公司大幅削減投資

More than $100bn of spending on new projects by the world’s Energy companies has been slowed, postponed or axed following the oil price plunge, evidence of the drastic industry action that will curb output in coming years.

在油價大幅下跌之後，全球能源公司已經放緩、推遲或者放棄了在新項目上的逾1000億美元投資，這些大刀闊斧的舉措將抑制未來數年的產量。

Companies including RoyAl Dutch Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips and Statoil have led moves to curtail capital spending on 26 major projects worldwide, according to analysis commissioned for the Financial Times.

英國《金融時報》委託進行的分析表明，包括荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)、英國石油(BP)、康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)和挪威國家石油公司(Statoil)在內的公司率先採取行動，縮減在全球各地的26個重大項目上的投資。

The delays and cancellations, many disclosed quietly in recent weeks and months, come amid a wider retrenchment by the industry that has seen thousands lose their jobs and led to a slowdown in the US shale boom.

在能源公司推遲和放棄新項目投資之際（許多是在最近幾周和幾月悄然宣佈的），能源行業更爲廣泛的收縮已導致數千人失業和美國頁岩油繁榮放緩。

The research by consultancy Rystad Energy shows that producers have targeted some of the highest cost areas, with nine Canadian oil sands projects delayed, each ranging from $1bn-$10bn in planned expenditure. “The particular area that is suffering is western Canada,” said Alastair Syme, energy analyst at Citigroup. “It is one area of the world outside US shale where companies are actually stopping investment in train.”

諮詢公司Rystad Energy進行的研究顯示，生產商將目標對準一些成本最高的領域，加拿大9個油砂項目被推遲，其中每個項目的計劃支出在10億美元至100美元之間。花旗集團(Citigroup)能源分析師阿拉斯泰爾•賽姆(Alastair Syme)表示：“尤其受影響的是加拿大西部地區。這是除了美國頁岩以外企業停止投資的一個地區。”

After reaching $115 a barrel last June, the price of oil plummeted to a low of $45 in January, as surging output of US shale oil and softening demand in Asia stoked a glut in the market. The decline accelerated after Opec, led by Saudi Arabia, decided not to cut production to support prices. Crude has since rebounded to about $66.

在去年6月達到每桶115美元之後，油價在今年1月大幅跌至45美元的低點，原因是美國頁岩油產量飆升和亞洲需求下降引發市場供應過剩。在石油輸出國組織（Opec，簡稱歐佩克）決定不減產來支持價格以後，油價進一步下跌。目前油價已反彈至66美元左右。

While the $118bn in total expenditure affected would be spread over several years, the impact of deferring investment on such projects would be to delay future production, with as much as 1.5m barrels a day — nearly 2 per cent of global oil output in 2013 — to come two years later than planned, said Rystad. The data focused only on projects with reserves of at least 50m barrels of oil equivalent.

Rystad Energy表示，儘管總計1180億美元的支出削減本來就將分佈於數年期間，但延遲此類項目的投資將導致未來開採延遲，計劃增加的150萬桶日產量（佔到2013年全球石油產量的近2%）將會推遲兩年實現。該數據聚焦於擁有至少5000萬桶石油當量儲量的項目。

The project deferrals already announced could be just the start of a big wave of delays. Goldman Sachs has identified 61 new projects, more than half awaiting final approval, as uneconomic at an oil price of $60 a barrel, putting more than $750bn of capital expenditure and 10.5m barrels a day of peak production at risk.

雖然已經有項目被宣佈延期，但接下來可能還會有更多項目被延遲。高盛(Goldman Sachs)認爲在油價處於每桶60美元的時候，61個新項目（逾一半仍在等待最後審批）是不經濟的，這讓逾7500億美元的資本支出和每日1050萬桶的峯值產量面臨風險。

Goldman’s Michele della Vigna said 17 countries, including Angola, Nigeria, Australia and Algeria, were likely to see investment in projects fall by more than 50 per cent between now and 2020, assuming prices stayed low.

高盛的米歇爾•德拉•維尼亞(Michele della Vigna)表示，假設從現在起到2020年油價一直保持低位的話，安哥拉、尼日利亞、澳大利亞和阿爾及利亞等17個國家的項目投資可能減少逾50%。