美聯儲新掌門不太可能向股市“下馬威”低頭

Jay Powell received a brutish welcome from the stock market on his first day as Federal Reserve chairman, but the equity sell-off that spread across the world is unlikely on its own to force him to chart a new course on Monetary policy.

傑伊·鮑威爾(Jay Powell)在出任美聯儲(Fed)主席的第一天，股市就給了他一個“下馬威”。不過，他不太可能就因爲席捲世界的股票拋售潮而改變美國的貨幣政策路線。

While a sustained rout would start damaging business and consumer sentiment as wealth is depressed, the S&P 500 index remains at levels seen as recently as December.

儘管持續暴跌導致的負財富效應會開始傷及企業和消費者的信心，但標普500指數(S&P 500)目前仍處於去年12月所見的點位。

A markets barometer from Goldman Sachs shows that financial conditions at Monday’s close were still nearly 170 basis points looser than they were when the Fed first lifted rates at the end of 2015, suggesting that markets are continuing to support growth.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)一項衡量市場狀況的指標顯示，週一收盤時的金融狀況仍比美聯儲2015年底首次加息時寬鬆近170個基點，這表明市場仍在繼續支撐增長。

Traders pared back their bets on a rate rise in March after the stock market slumped on Monday, putting the chances of a move at 69 per cent, according to CME Group’s analysis.

根據芝加哥商品交易所集團(CME Group)的分析，在週一的股市暴跌之後，交易員們削減了他們對美聯儲在3月加息的押注，由此計算得出的美聯儲3月加息概率爲69%。

But analysts stressed that US economic prospects remain sufficiently buoyant to keep the Fed on track for three rate rises this year, which was the median forecast from Fed policymakers published in December. Goldman analysts are among those still expecting four increases.

但分析師們強調，美國經濟前景依然足夠樂觀，因此美聯儲將繼續沿着今年加息3次的路徑前進，加息3次是美聯儲政策制定者去年12月發佈的預測中值。而包括高盛分析師在內的一些人依然預計美聯儲今年將加息4次。

Mark Spindel, founder and chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC, said: “The correction has been nowhere near large enough to hit the real economy. It is true that we have a new Fed chair and a lot of vacancies at the central bank, so there is uncertainty in the markets about how they will react.

Potomac River Capital LLC創始人兼首席投資官馬克·斯平德爾(Mark Spindel)表示：“此次回調的幅度絕不足以衝擊到實體經濟。的確，我們有了一位新的美聯儲主席，而且這家央行也有很多職位空缺，因此市場對他們會如何應對心裏沒底。

“But the economy is strong, there has finally been an increase in wage growth, and unemployment is headed below 4 per cent: the worst thing Jay Powell could do would be to react to this and get pushed around by two days of market volatility.”

“但是，經濟很強勁，終於實現了薪資增長，失業率也正走向4%下方：傑伊·鮑威爾能做的最糟糕的事情，就是對此作出反應、被持續兩天的市場波動擺佈。”