Lex專欄 人民幣對市場響應愈發積極

Volatility is meat and drink for traders; it gives finance directors indigestion. In China there will be More of it.

波動性是交易員們的美餐，卻會令財務總監們消化不良。在中國，你會面臨越來越大的波動性。

On Monday the People’s Bank of China moved the renminbi trading band higher by half a per cent, after its market value rose sharply on Friday. Following the PBoC move traders decided to weaken the currency a little.

週一，中國央行把人民幣匯率中間價調高了約0.5%——此前在上週五，人民幣的市場價值曾大幅上揚。中國央行出手之後，交易員們決定把人民幣匯率壓低一點。

With the authorities a step behind the markets, the evidence is growing that Chinese assets are becoming more responsive to market demand, and less sensitive to policy. Monday’s decision also shows that devaluation is not China’s ultimate goal. Beijing wants a more flexible currency to strengthen its bid for the renminbi to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, a notional currency that member countries can exchange for hard currencies.

由於當局對市場亦步亦趨，可以說有越來越明顯的證據證明，中國資產對市場需求的響應變得更積極，對政策變得不那麼敏感。中國央行週一的決定還表明，貶值並非中國的最終目的。北京方面希望人民幣匯率具備更大彈性，這樣將有助於推動人民幣被納入國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子。SDR是一種名義貨幣，IMF成員國可用它來兌換硬通貨。

The IMF, which may decide on renminbi inclusion this month, says that to be eligible, a currency must be both widely used and freely tradable. China’s renminbi is widely used: last month Swift said the renminbi had overtaken the yen to become the world’s fourth most used currency. And as Monday’s move shows, it is becoming more responsive to the market.

本月，IMF或許會決定把人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子。IMF表示，一種貨幣必須滿足廣泛使用和可自由交易兩個條件，纔夠格被納入。目前，人民幣已得到廣泛的使用：上月環球銀行金融電信協會(Swift)表示，人民幣已超過日元成爲全球第四大支付貨幣。此外，正如週一的走勢所表明的那樣，人民幣對市場的響應變得更積極。

Inclusion in the SDR basket might strengthen demand for the renminbi as a reserve currency. This would be a relief to companies with high foreign exchange debt, including China Southern and Air China, which were hurt in August when China pushed the renminbi band down 1.9 per cent in one day.

被納入SDR貨幣籃子，或許會提高人民幣作爲儲備貨幣的需求量。這會讓那些揹負高額外債的企業——包括中國南航(China Southern)和中國國航(Air China)——鬆一口氣。今年8月，中國央行在一日內把人民幣匯率中間價調低了1.9%，曾令這類企業受到衝擊。

Yet any upward pressure on the renminbi is likely to be shortlived. China’s economy is still slowing, and capital outflows have been rising. HSBC thinks SDR-related inflows — if they happen — will be too slow to make a significant impact. Relief to those companies with mismatched currency exposure will thus be similarly brief.

不過，人民幣的上行壓力很可能不會持久。中國經濟仍在放緩，資本外流一直在增加。匯豐(HSBC)認爲，與SDR相關的資本流入——如果發生的話——將會很慢，不足以產生重大影響。因此，那些存在錯配外匯敞口的企業所感受到的輕鬆也會同樣短暫。

But betting on a sustained move either way in the renminbi looks unwise. As markets start to lead policy, rather than vice versa, plan for a bumpier ride.

但是，押注人民幣持續單邊上漲或單邊下跌似乎都是不明智的。隨着市場開始引領政策、而不是相反，請大家爲更顛簸的行程做好準備。