美聯儲對全球經濟的擔憂緩解 Fed concerns ease over

The Federal Reserve yesterday signalled that its concerns about global economic and financial hazards had eased since its meeting in March, leaving the door open to a second increase in interest rates later this year.

美聯儲(Federal Reserve)昨日表示，其對全球經濟和金融風險的擔憂自3月份政策會議以來有所緩解，這爲今年晚些時候第二次加息的可能性作出鋪墊。

The central bank held rates at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent yesterday, as expected, noting a slowdown in US economic growth and more sluggish household spending.

這家美國央行昨日將利率維持在0.25%至0.5%的區間不變，符合市場預期。美聯儲指出，美國經濟增長有所放緩，家庭支出更爲低迷。

The Federal Open Market Committee struck out a reference in its last statement to international risks to the US economy due to an improvement in financial market sentiment and lessened concerns over Chinese policy.

聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)沒有重申上一份聲明提及的美國經濟面臨國際風險，原因在於金融市場情緒轉好，對中國政策的擔憂緩解。

That suggested a short-term rates increase in the coming months, even if the timing remains uncertain.

這似乎表明短期利率將在未來幾個月上調，即便具體時機仍不明朗。

However the Fed also suggested that it remained on guard for another adverse turn of events abroad. “The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” it said.

然而，美聯儲也暗示，它仍然警惕海外局勢可能出現又一個不利轉折。“委員會將繼續密切監測通脹指標以及全球經濟和金融動向，”它表示。

Having pushed through a landmark rise in short-term interest rates in December, Fed chair Janet Yellen has since spelt out a cautious approach to monetary policy amid concerns about Chinese growth and low US inflation expectations.

自去年12月堅持啓動具有里程碑意義的加息以來，在各方擔憂中國經濟增長和美國通脹預期偏低的大背景下，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)對貨幣政策表達了謹慎觀點。

Uncertainty about the path of policy has been heightened by the UK referendum on its membership of the EU a week after the Fed’s June meeting; many investors argue a Fed move so soon to a potential market destabilising event would be hazardous.

美聯儲6月會議一週後，英國將舉行要不要退歐的全民公投，這加劇了圍繞政策路徑的不確定性；許多投資者提出，美聯儲在距離一起潛在導致市場不穩定的事件這麼近的時候動手將是危險的。

The median expectation from Fed policymakers’ interest rate forecasts suggests the official rate will be lifted twice this year, with some analysts looking to June or July for the first of these moves and December for the second.

美聯儲政策制定者利率預測的中值似乎表明，官方利率今年將上調兩次。一些分析師預期，第一次加息將在6月或7月，第二次加息將在12月。

In yesterday’s statement the central bank once again declined to weigh how the hazards facing the US economy measure up against the chances of positive surprises, leaving the timing of the next interest-rate move unclear.

在昨日的聲明中，美聯儲再次拒絕評判美國經濟面臨的危險與出現正面驚喜的機率哪個大，這使下一次利率調整的時機仍不明朗。

That marked the third rate-setting meeting in a row in which the Fed has omitted a statement on the balance of risks, clouding the outlook for monetary policy. Esther George, the Kansas City Fed chief, dissented in favour of a rate rise in April’s meeting, replicating her vote in the March gathering.

這標誌着美聯儲在連續第三次議息會議上沒有就風險平衡表態，給貨幣政策的前景帶來不確定因素。堪薩斯城聯儲(Kansas City Fed)主席埃絲特•喬治(Esther George)表達了異議，她在4月會議上贊成立即加息，重複了她在3月會議上的投票。

Complicating the Fed’s calculations are signs of a slowdown in the US economy. The New York Federal Reserve’s economic modelling points to gross domestic product growth of just 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, followed by expansion of 1.2 per cent in the second. Early indicators of activity in the second quarter have been sluggish, among them the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business outlook survey, which fell into negative territory in April.

使美聯儲的考慮複雜化的是，美國經濟出現了放緩跡象。紐約聯儲(New York Fed)的經濟模型表明，今年第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)僅增長0.8%，第二季度將增長1.2%。第二季度的先行活動指標比較低迷，其中費城聯儲(Philadelphia Fed)4月份的商業前景調查陷入負值區間。

In its statement the Fed noted the weaker growth, but also pointed out that the labour market had continued to improve.

美聯儲在其聲明中指出，經濟增長轉弱，但也指出，勞動力市場繼續改善。