美聯儲加息已成定局 Fed ready to raise rates after nine years

Barring a huge surprise, the US Federal Reserve’s open market committee is expected today to unveil its first rise in target rates in more than nine years, three months after pressure from markets forced it to abandon plans to raise rates at its September meeting.

除非出現巨大意外，否則美聯儲(Fed)公開市場委員會將於今日宣佈上調目標利率，這將是美聯儲9年多來首次加息。三個月前，來自市場的壓力迫使美聯儲放棄了加息計劃。

Since then, the two key measures it is mandated to target — inflation and unemployment — have moved so as to give stronger justification for raising rates. But most of the market pressures that forced the Fed to delay a rate rise in September, including falling commodity prices, depreciating emerging market currencies, especially in China, and stressed credit markets, have only intensified since then. Markets have made the decision far harder.

自那以來，美聯儲受命管理的兩項指標——通脹和失業率——的走勢讓加息理由更爲強勁。但迫使美聯儲在9月份推遲加息的市場壓力——包括大宗商品價格下跌、新興市場（尤其是中國）貨幣貶值以及信貸市場緊張——自那以來大多不減反增。市場極大地加大了加息決定的難度。

Since September 15, market inflation forecasts have actually fallen, with markets now predicting average inflation of 1.47 per cent — below the Fed’s target rate — over the next 10 years.

自9月15日以來，市場通脹預測實際上有所下降，市場現在預計未來10年的平均通脹率爲1.47%，低於美聯儲的目標利率。

US stocks have gained since September 15, but this is almost entirely due to big companies, with the Russell Top 50 index — covering the 50 largest stocks by market value — rising 6.4 per cent, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies has fallen by 3 per cent.

美國股市自9月15日以來上漲，但這幾乎完全歸因於大公司的上漲，涵蓋市值前50名股票的羅素50指數上漲6.4%，而包括較小公司股票的羅素2000指數下跌3%。

Emerging market currencies have depreciated a further 2.6 per cent. And the Chinese renminbi, after stabilising, has now weakened to a lower level against the dollar than at any point during August. In credit markets, investors were alarmed last week by a sharp fall for high-yield “junk” credit regarded as the highest risk. The Merrill Lynch index of high-yield is now down some 6.5 per cent over the past three months.

新興市場貨幣進一步貶值2.6%。而人民幣兌美元匯率先是企穩，然後進一步下跌，現在比今年8月份的任何水平都低。在信貸市場，投資者上週對被視爲最高風險的高收益“垃圾”信貸價格大幅下跌感到震驚。美林(Merrill Lynch)高收益指數在過去3個月裏下跌約6.5%。

Despite all these measures, market opinion remained overwhelming that the long-awaited rate rise would at last arrive, with the Fed Funds futures market putting the chances at 76 per cent.

儘管有所有這些指標，但壓倒性的市場觀點依然是，期待已久的加息終將來臨，聯邦基金利率期貨市場走勢顯示，美聯儲加息機率爲76%。

The main reason for this is the economy. Unemployment has ticked down from 5.1 to 5.0 per cent since September, while core inflation last month rose to 2 per cent. Wage inflation reached 2.5 per cent a month, a post-crisis high. This explains why markets expect the Fed to go through with a higher interest rate. But they did not make the task easy.

這種觀點的主要理由是美國經濟。自9月份以來，失業率從5.1%降至5.0%，同時上月核心通脹率升至2%。薪資通脹達到每月2.5%，爲危機之後的最高水平。這解釋了爲何市場預計美聯儲終將加息，但它們沒有讓這項任務變得輕鬆一些。