中國對全球經濟的衝擊波 The global economy and the fallout from China

What was supposed to be a routine meeting this weekend for the Group of 20 large economies has become More serious. The central bankers and finance ministers meeting in Ankara have watched in alarm as the rout in Chinese stock markets has driven down asset prices and emerging market currencies across the world.

本週末20國集團(G20)大型經濟體舉行的一個原本例行公事的會議已變得更加事關重大。匯聚土耳其安卡拉開會的各國央行行長和財長，已震驚地目睹了中國股市大跌壓低了全球資產價格和新興市場貨幣匯率。

There has been little consensus about how to respond. The apparatus of international policy co-ordination, including the G20 itself, is somewhere between feeble and non-existent. Still, there is room for central banks and finance ministries to offset the shock emanating from China and the commodity markets.

在怎麼迴應的問題上，各方几乎毫無共識。國際政策協調機制，包括G20本身，介於軟弱無力和形同虛設之間。話雖如此，各國央行和財政部有一些空間來抵消中國和大宗商品市場發出的衝擊波。

The International Monetary Fund, continuing its historically unusual role as dove-in-chief, chimed in this week with a warning that the world’s leading central banks should avoid raising interest rates, given the increasing risks to growth. The fund is most likely right. Employment data released on Friday continued the trend of steady growth in US output and jobs, but inflation and inflation expectations remain quiescent. Such conditions argue for the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold later this month.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)繼續扮演“首席鴿派”這一在歷史上不尋常的角色。本週該組織加入討論，警告稱，鑑於經濟增長面臨的風險不斷增加，世界主要國家的央行應當避免升息。該組織極有可能是正確的。週五發佈的數據顯示，美國保持了產出和就業雙雙穩步增長的趨勢，但通脹和通脹預期都繼續毫無動靜。這樣的狀況說明，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)本月晚些時候應當維持利率不變。

In the eurozone, the European Central Bank’s next move is more likely to be loosening rather than tightening. On Thursday, it cut its inflation and growth forecasts and warned that it might extend quantitative easing if growth threatened to weaken.

在歐元區，歐洲央行(ECB)的下一步動作更有可能是放鬆，而不是收緊。週四，它下調了通脹和經濟增長預期，並警告稱，如果增長面臨減弱威脅，它可能會延長量化寬鬆政策。

Still, the policy challenges faced by the US and Europe are straightforward compared to those in emerging economies. The sell-off in their currencies since the middle of the year was given more fuel by China’s hurried decision last month to let the renminbi fall.

話說回來，比起新興經濟體，美國和歐洲面臨的政策挑戰是直截了當的。自年中開始遭到拋售的新興市場貨幣，因上月中國倉促決定讓人民幣貶值而進一步受壓。

Although the falls in exchange rates are alarming many policymakers, they are often part of a necessary adjustment. For commodity producers, a flexible exchange rate helps offset the domestic impact of a fall in dollar-denominated raw materials prices. It is true that the depreciations have not led to a boom in exports. But to the extent that they reflect a fall in export demand due to weakness in the global economy and particularly China, they will help to cushion the blow.

雖然匯率走低讓許多政策制定者震驚，但它們往往是必要調整的一部分。對於大宗商品生產國，靈活匯率有助於抵消以美元計價的原材料價格下降的國內影響。沒錯，貨幣貶值並未帶來出口繁榮。但是，就貶值反映了出口需求因全球經濟（尤其是中國）疲弱而下降而言，它們將有助於緩解衝擊。

Of course, the ability of those economies to benefit from a weaker currency depends on their own policy apparatus. For countries like, say, Colombia, with a sound fiscal framework, stable inflation and a credible central bank, a huge depreciation has not meant offsetting rises in interest rates. Conversely, for high-inflation economies like Brazil and Turkey, where loose fiscal policy overheated their economies and forced monetary tightening to compensate, sliding currencies have added to their problems not ameliorated them.

當然，這些經濟體獲益於貨幣貶值的能力取決於它們自己的政策機制。對於某些具有穩健財政框架、穩定通脹和可信央行的國家（比如說哥倫比亞），大幅貶值並未意味着抵消性上調利率。相反，對於高通脹的經濟體，如巴西和土耳其（這些國家此前寬鬆的財政政策導致經濟過熱，迫使貨幣政策收緊作爲補償），本幣貶值加劇了他們的問題，而不是緩解了問題。

Although they have raised fears of a new currency war, few of the depreciations seen so far could be called deliberate competitive devaluations. Nor should such accusations be resurrected if those emerging market central banks with room to move loosen domestic monetary policy. Easing fiscal stances is also an option for some.

雖然貨幣貶值引發了人們對於爆發新一輪匯率戰的擔憂，但迄今出現的貶值基本上都不能被稱爲蓄意的競爭性貶值。這些新興市場的央行在有迴旋餘地的情況下如果放鬆國內的貨幣政策，也不應該受到這樣的指責。對某些國家來說，放鬆財政政策也是一個選項。

The world’s central banks and finance ministers cannot and should not try to counter the impact of China’s equity market falls on their own domestic asset prices or exchange rates. But China is a sufficiently large economy, particularly in its demand for commodities, that policymakers must be alert for weakening growth and lower inflationary pressure.

世界各國的央行和財長不能（也不應該）試圖抵消中國股市下跌對他們的國內資產價格或匯率產生的影響。但中國是一個足夠大的經濟體，尤其是就其對大宗商品的需求而言，因此政策制定者必須警惕增長減弱和通脹壓力降低的風險。

The IMF is right that the world economy is at a dangerous and uncertain moment. Policymakers should err on the side of cushioning the shock rather than carrying on with policies designed for more optimistic times.

國際貨幣基金組織說得對：世界經濟正處於一個危險而不確定的時刻。政策制定者應該寧可過度緩衝震盪，也不要繼續推行面向更爲樂觀時期的政策。