中國經濟轉型帶來全球挑戰 China’s challenge to the world

China’s attempted economic transition has deep implications, not just for the emerging nation, but for the rest of the world. In the short term, the challenge is to manage spill-overs from what might be a sharp slowdown in China’s economic activity. In the long term, it is how to cope with the integration of a financial powerhouse into the world economy. In reality, however, what happens in the short term will shape the longer term as well.

中國正在嘗試進行的經濟轉型對新興國家乃至整個世界都將產生深遠影響。短期內，挑戰在於管控好中國經濟活動可能出現的大幅放緩帶來的溢出效應。長遠來看，挑戰在於如何讓一個金融大國融入全球經濟。然而，實際上，短期的發展變化同樣將影響長期。

India’s latest Economic Survey provides a thought-provoking taxonomy of crises. The external impact of a crisis depends, it argues, on whether it occurs in systemically important countries, it is the result of fiscal or private borrowing and whether currencies of affected countries appreciate or depreciate. What might this analysis have to do with China? The answer is that it is a systemically important country that suffers from high and rapidly rising corporate indebtedness. This might lead to a sudden halt in investment and a rapid depreciation.

印度最新的經濟調查(Economic Survey)提供了一個發人深思的危機分類法。該調查認爲，一場危機造成的外部衝擊取決於危機是否發生在具有系統重要性的國家、是否是財政或私人借債的結果，以及受影響國家的貨幣是升值還是貶值。這種分析方法與中國有什麼關係呢？答案是，中國是一個具有系統重要性的國家，而且企業債務水平高、上升迅速。這有可能導致投資驟停和貨幣快速貶值。

Such a sharp slowdown is not at all impossible. The combination of an ultimately unsustainable rise in corporate debt with the dependence of demand on ultra-high rates of investment creates the vulnerability. As the economy slows to growth below 7 per cent a year, investment rates of close to 45 per cent of gross domestic product no longer make economic sense. The private sector is also responsible for close to two-thirds of investment. So market forces might impose a painful adjustment.

這種急劇放緩的前景並非完全不可能出現。企業債務最終不可持續的增長，加上需求依賴於超高投資率，共同造成了中國經濟的脆弱性。隨着經濟增速放緩至7%以下，接近國內生產總值(GDP) 45%的投資率不再具有經濟合理性。由於接近三分之二的投資由私營部門完成，市場力量或將強行推進一輪痛苦的調整。

One might envisage two government responses: a huge increase in fiscal deficits, as in the western financial crises, and a More aggressive monetary policy. But a weaker exchange rate might also be welcome, as a way to offset domestic deflationary pressures. At the China Development Forum held in Beijing this month, Zhou Xiaochuan, the People’s Bank of China governor, indicated that it was reasonable to run down foreign currency reserves built up on a massive (and unplanned) scale. But there must be some limit to that. Controls on capital outflows could also be tightened, even though that would go against China’s plans for opening up the capital account. (See charts.)

人們或許可以設想中國政府的兩種反應：像西方遭遇金融危機時那樣大幅增加財政赤字，或者採取更激進的貨幣政策。但人民幣走弱或許也會受到歡迎，這樣可以抵消國內的通縮壓力。在本月北京舉行的中國發展高層論壇(China Development Forum)上，中國央行(PBoC)行長周小川暗示，中國過去大規模（無計劃）積累起來的外匯儲備出現下降是合情合理的。但這肯定有一定的限度。對資本外流的管控也可能收緊，即便這樣做有悖於中國開放資本賬戶的計劃（見圖表）。

While the Chinese economy has been weakening, monetary and credit policy loosening and the exchange rate falling, no such crisis is to be seen as yet. The main drivers of the capital outflows also seem to be prepayment of foreign-currency loans and the unwinding of “carry trades”, partly triggered by perceptions of a greater risk of a depreciation of the renminbi. Again, while weakening, the growth of demand has certainly not collapsed. So far, so good then. But this story is not over.

雖然中國經濟一直在放緩，貨幣和信貸政策不斷放鬆，匯率下跌，但到目前爲止還看不到發生此種危機的跡象。而且，資本外流的主要推動力似乎是外幣貸款提前還款和“套利交易”平倉——在一定程度上由對人民幣貶值風險上升的預期引發。另外，需求增長雖然放緩，但肯定沒有崩潰。目前看起來還不錯。但故事並未結束。

The world economy is in no position to absorb another big deflationary shock. The possibility of such a shock from China over the next several years is real. But a longer-term issue also arises: how to integrate China into the global financial system. Experience suggests that simultaneous liberalisation and opening up of fragile financial systems often ends in vast crises. If the country concerned is systemically important, such crises will be global. Floating exchange rates may weaken the impact. Even so, a crisis in a systemically important economy will have huge effects.

世界經濟絕不可能再吸收一次巨大的通縮衝擊。未來幾年，中國帶來這種衝擊的可能性是真實存在的。但一個更長期的問題也出現了：如何讓中國融入全球金融體系。經驗表明，脆弱的金融系統同時進行自由化與開放通常都會以陷入巨大的危機而告終。如果這個國傢俱有系統重要性，那造成的危機將是全球性的。浮動匯率或許可以減輕世界經濟遭受的衝擊。即便如此，一個具有系統重要性的經濟體發生危機將帶來巨大影響。

For this reason, the opening up of China’s financial system to the world must be regarded as a matter of global concern. A recent paper from the Reserve Bank of Australia illustrates some risks. A significant aspect is the potential for a vast increase in two-way flows of portfolio capital, which are still modest from and to China.

爲此，中國金融體系對世界的開放必須被視爲一個具有全球重要性的問題。澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)近期的一份報告分析了一些風險。一個重要方面是投資組合資金雙向流動大幅增加的潛力，目前中國的這種雙向流動水平仍然不高。

At present, controls on outflows remain tight. But consider some relevant magnitudes: China’s gross annual savings were about $5.2tn in 2015, against $3.4tn in the US; its stock of “broad money”, the widest measure of the money supply, was $15.3tn at the end of last year; and the total gross stock of credit in the economy was about $30tn. China is the savings superpower. It is not hard to envisage a huge gross outflow, due to portfolio diversification and capital flight, should controls be lifted. Against such vast potential outflows, foreign-currency reserves as large as $3.2tn would be swiftly exhausted. While there would also be foreign portfolio demand for Chinese assets, the domestic policy and institutional changes needed to make that a reality are likely to be impossibly demanding.

就目前而言，中國依然嚴格控制資本外流。但想想一些相關數字的規模：2015年中國年度儲蓄總額大約爲5.2萬億美元，而美國是3.4萬億美元；去年年末“廣義貨幣”（最廣泛的貨幣供應衡量指標）存量是15.3萬億美元；經濟中的信貸總存量大約是30萬億美元。中國是超級儲蓄大國。不難想象，如果取消控制措施，由投資組合多元化和資本外逃而產生的資本外流將是巨大的。面對如此龐大的潛在外流，即便是高達3.2萬億美元的外匯儲備也會很快消耗殆盡。儘管外國投資組合也有對中國資產的需求，但滿足這種需求所必需的中國國內政策和制度的變化可能極爲苛刻。

It is probable, then, that the impact of capital account liberalisation would be a large net capital outflow from China, a weaker exchange rate and a bigger current account surplus. Weaker investment would reinforce this. It is hard to imagine how such a shift could be accommodated. One needs only to think of possible impacts on asset markets, exchange rates and current account balances in the rest of the world economy.

那麼資本賬戶自由化的影響將可能是中國資本大量淨外流、人民幣貶值以及經常賬戶盈餘擴大。投資下降將會強化這種影響。很難想象世界如何適應這種變化。人們只要想想全球其他經濟體的資產市場、匯率和經常賬戶餘額可能遭受的影響就會明白這一點。

In her speech at the China Development Forum this month, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, noted rightly that “increased global integration brings with it greater potential for spillovers — through trade, finance or confidence effects. As integration continues, effective co-operation is critical to the functioning of the international monetary system. This requires collective action from all countries.” Right now, nothing is more important than the co-operative management of the immediate stresses in the Chinese economy and the longer-term challenges of China’s financial integration.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)本月在中國發展高層論壇上發表演講時正確地指出，“全球一體化程度的加深提高了產生溢出效應的可能性——通過貿易、金融或者信心的影響。隨着一體化繼續推進，有效合作對國際貨幣體系的運轉至關重要。這要求所有國家集體行動”。就現在而言，各國合作管理好中國經濟迫在眉睫的壓力以及中國融入全球金融體系的更長期挑戰，比任何事情都重要。

If either were to be mishandled, it could put unbearable pressure upon our integrated global economic system. The world economy is still struggling to handle the aftermath of the western financial crises. It might fail to cope with a Chinese one altogether. The last time a hegemonic financial power emerged, the world suffered the Great Depression. It has to do better this time.

如果搞砸任何一項，就可能對我們的一體化全球經濟體系造成無法承受的壓力。如今世界經濟仍在艱難應對西方金融危機的餘波。它可能徹底無法應付一場中國的金融危機。上次一個金融霸主出現的時候，世界遭遇了“大蕭條”(Great Depression)。這一次世界必須做得更好。